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The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations

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Abstract

This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5–20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10–30 days in the spring period. Estonia’s average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank all of the phenological observers and work organisers at the Estonian Naturalists’ Society and the Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, who have created a valuable database, and other colleagues for their useful comments and help they offered. This study was supported by the 5th Framework Programme of the European Commission under the key action Global Change, Climate and Biodiversity (POSITIVE, EVK2-CT-1999-00012); by Estonian Science Foundation Grant 5836.

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  1. Institute of Geography, University of Tartu, 46 Vanemuise St., Tartu, 51014, Estonia

    Rein Ahas & Anto Aasa

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  1. Rein Ahas
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  2. Anto Aasa
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Correspondence to Rein Ahas.

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Ahas, R., Aasa, A. The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations. Int J Biometeorol 51, 17–26 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-006-0041-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-006-0041-z

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