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Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration

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Abstract

The Delaware River Basin (DRB) encompasses approximately 0.4 % of the area of the United States (U.S.), but supplies water to 5 % of the population. We studied three forested tributaries to quantify the potential climate-driven change in hydrologic budget for two 25-year time periods centered on 2030 and 2060, focusing on sensitivity to the method of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) change. Hydrology was simulated using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (Williamson et al. 2015). Climate-change scenarios for four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to derive monthly change factors for temperature (T), precipitation (PPT), and PET according to the energy-based method of Priestley and Taylor (1972). Hydrologic simulations indicate a general increase in annual (especially winter) streamflow (Q) as early as 2030 across the DRB, with a larger increase by 2060. This increase in Q is the result of (1) higher winter PPT, which outweighs an annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) increase and (2) (for winter) a major shift away from storage of PPT as snow pack. However, when PET change is evaluated instead using the simpler T-based method of Hamon (1963), the increases in Q are small or even negative. In fact, the change of Q depends as much on PET method as on time period or RCP. This large sensitivity and associated uncertainty underscore the importance of exercising caution in the selection of a PET method for use in climate-change analyses.

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Acknowledgments

Development of the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) for the Delaware River Basin was funded by the USGS as part of a National Water Census focus area study. We appreciate the thoughtful comments from colleagues and reviewers at different stages of this research and manuscript preparation.

Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. US Geological Survey, Indiana-Kentucky Water Science Center, 9818 Bluegrass Parkway, Louisville, KY, 40299-1906, USA

    Tanja N. Williamson

  2. US Geological Survey, New York Water Science Center, 425 Jordan Rd., Troy, NY, 12180, USA

    Elizabeth A. Nystrom

  3. US Geological Survey, National Research Program, 201 Forrestal Rd, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA

    Paul C. D. Milly

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  1. Tanja N. Williamson
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  2. Elizabeth A. Nystrom
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  3. Paul C. D. Milly
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Correspondence to Tanja N. Williamson.

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Williamson, T.N., Nystrom, E.A. & Milly, P.C.D. Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration. Climatic Change 139, 215–228 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1782-2

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