Abstract
This article establishes quantitative relationships between the evolution of climate and cropland using daily climate data for a century and data on allocation of land across crops for six decades in a specific agro-climatic region of California. These relationships are applied to project how climate scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change would drive cropland patterns into 2050. Projections of warmer winters, particularly from 2035 to 2050, cause lower wheat area and more alfalfa and tomato area. Only marginal changes in area were projected for tree and vine crops, in part because although lower, chill hours remain above critical values.
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Notes
The amount of rainfall may differ in the valley region of Yolo County and the upper watershed where reservoirs are located. Hence, our rainfall data may under represent surface water availability. However, as long as the rainfall in the valley and upper watershed is correlated (likely so), using rainfall in the valley is expected to make little difference in the regression results.
GDDwinter likely affects the growth of annuals as well as perennials as shown in Lobell and Field (2011) recent findings that the low minimum temperature in February adversely affects almond yields. Nevertheless, in our study, the climate variable for tree crops is represented by Mchill alone, due to the considerable negative correlation between chill hours and GDDwinter.
Wheat varieties planted in California these days do not require a cool period. However, the plausibility of vernalization is based on the fact that our data period extends more than a half century.
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Acknowledgments
Funding for this research came from a grant from the California Energy Commission and the U.C. Agricultural Issues Center. We thank Louise Jackson for help throughout the project. Nathan Hendricks provided able research assistance. Lee and Sumner are both members of the U.C. Giannini Foundation.
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Lee, H., Sumner, D.A. Economics of downscaled climate-induced changes in cropland, with projections to 2050: evidence from Yolo County California. Climatic Change 132, 723–737 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1436-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1436-9