Abstract
In this study we examine the performance of eight of the IPCC AR4 global coupled climate models used in the WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset, as well as their ensemble mean, in simulating annual indices of extreme temperature and precipitation climate events in South America. In this first part we focus on comparing observed and modeled mean values and interannual variability. Two extreme temperature indices based on minimum temperature (warm nights and frost days) and three indices of extreme precipitation (R95t, R10 and consecutive dry days), obtained both from meteorological stations during 1961–2000 and model outputs, were compared. The number of warm nights are better represented by models than the FD. The interannual variability pattern is also in good agreement with the observed values. For precipitation, the index that is best represented by the models is the R95t, which relates the extreme precipitation to local climate. The maximum of dryness observed over the central Argentinian Andes or the extensive dry season of the Amazon region could not be represented by any model.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank A, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Ambenje P, Rupa Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson D, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res 111:D05109. doi:10.1029/2005JD006290
Boulanger JP, Brasseur G, Carril A, Castro M, Degallier N, Ereño C, Marengo J, Le Treut H, Menendez C, Nuñez M, Penalba O, Rolla A, Rusticucci M, Terra R (2009) The European CLARIS project: a Europe-South America network for climate change (this issue). doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9734-8
Frich P, Alexander P, Della-Marta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Klein Tank A, Peterson T (2002) Global changes in climatic extremes during the 2nd half of the 20th century. Clim Res 19:193–212
Groissman P, Knight P, Easterling D, Karl T, Hegerl G, Razuvaek V (2005) Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. J Climate 18:1326–1350
Haylock MR, Peterson TC, Alves LM, Ambrizzi T, Anunciação YMT, Baez J, Barros VR, Berlato MA, Bidegain M, Coronel G, Corradi V, Garcia VJ, Grimm AM, Karoly D, Marengo JA, Marino MB, Moncunill DF, Nechet D, Quintana J, Rebello E, Rusticucci M, Santos JL, Trebejo I, Vincent LA (2006) Trends in total and extreme South American rainfall 1960–2000 and links with sea surface temperature. J Climate 19:1490–1512
Llano MP (2006) Variabilidad espacio—temporal de las secuencias de días sin lluvia en la Argentina. Master thesis, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires
Marengo J, Camargo CC (2007) Surface air temperature trends in Southern Brazil for 1960–2002. Int J Climatol 28(7):893–904. doi:10.1002/joc.1584
Marengo J, Rusticucci M, Penalba O, Renom M (2009) An intercomparison of model-simulated in extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: part 2: historical trends. Clim Change (this issue)
Penalba O, Llano M (2006) Temporal variability in the length of no-rain spells in Argentina. In: 8th international conference on southern hemisphere meteorology and oceanography, American Meteorological Society, Foz de Iguazu, Brasil, 24–28 Abril 2006
Penalba O, Robledo F (2006) Trends in extreme daily rainfall events in La Plata Basin. In: 8th international conference on southern hemisphere meteorology and oceanography, American Meteorological Society, Foz de Iguazu, Brasil, 24–28 April 2006
Penalba O, Robledo F (2009) Trends in extreme daily rainfall events in La Plata Basin. Clim Change (this issue)
Rusticucci M, Barrucand M (2004) Observed trends and changes in temperature extremes in Argentina. J Climate 17:4099–4107
Rusticucci M, Kousky V (2002) A comparative study of maximum and minimum temperatures over Argentina: NCEP/NCAR reanalysis versus station data. J Climate 15(15):2089–2101
Rusticucci M, Penalba O (2000) Inter-Decadal changes in the precipitation seasonal cycle over Southern South America. Relationship with surface temperature. Clim Res 16:1–15 (ISSN 0936-577X)
Rusticucci M, Renom M (2008) Variability and trends in indices of quality-controlled daily temperature extremes in Uruguay. Int J Climatol 28:1083–1095. doi:10.1002/joc.1607
Taylor K (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel data set. A new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383
Tebaldi C, Haohow K, Arblaster J, Meehl G (2007) Going to extremes. An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Clim Change 79:185–211
Vincent LA, Peterson TC, Barros VR, Marino MB, Rusticucci M, Carrasco G, Ramirez E, Alves LM, Ambrizzi T, Berlato MA, Grimm AM, Marengo JA, Molion L, Moncunill DF, Rebello E, Anunciação YMT, Quintana J, Santos JL, Baez J, Coronel G, Garcia J, Trebejo I, Bidegain M, Haylock MR, Karoly D (2005) Observed trends in indices of daily temperature extremes in South America 1960–2000. J Climate 18:5011–5023
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Rusticucci, M., Marengo, J., Penalba, O. et al. An intercomparison of model-simulated in extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century. Part 1: mean values and variability. Climatic Change 98, 493–508 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9742-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9742-8