Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Relationships between atmospheric circulation indices and rainfall in Northern Algeria and comparison of observed and RCM-generated rainfall

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This work aims, as a first step, to analyze rainfall variability in Northern Algeria, in particular extreme events, during the period from 1940 to 2010. Analysis of annual rainfall shows that stations in the northwest record a significant decrease in rainfall since the 1970s. Frequencies of rainy days for each percentile (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th) and each rainfall interval class (1–5, 5–10, 10–20, 20–50, and ≥50 mm) do not show a significant change in the evolution of daily rainfall. The Tenes station is the only one to show a significant decrease in the frequency of rainy days up to the 75th percentile and for the 10–20-mm interval class. There is no significant change in the temporal evolution of extreme events in the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. The relationships between rainfall variability and general atmospheric circulation indices for interannual and extreme event variability are moderately influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Mediterranean Oscillation. Significant correlations are observed between the Southern Oscillation Index and annual rainfall in the northwestern part of the study area, which is likely linked with the decrease in rainfall in this region. Seasonal rainfall in Northern Algeria is affected by the Mediterranean Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in the west. The ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) are assessed using the bias method to test their ability to reproduce rainfall variability at different time scales. The Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETHZ), and Forschungszentrum Geesthacht (GKSS) models yield the least biased results.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alpert P, Ben-Gai T, Baharad A, Benjamini Y, Yekutieli D, Colacino M, Diodato L, Ramis C, Homar V, Romero R, Michaelides S, Manes A (2002) The paradoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite of decrease in total values. Geophys Res Lett, v. 29, NO. 0, 10.1029/2001GL013554

  • Bekkoussa B, Meddi M, Jourde H (2008) Forçage climatique et anthropique sur la ressource en eau souterraine d’une région semi-aride: cas de la plaine de Ghriss (Nord-Ouest algérien). Sécheresse 18(3):173–184

    Google Scholar 

  • Benabdesselam T, Amarchi H (2013) Approche régionale pour l’estimation des précipitations journalières extrêmes du Nord Est Algérien. Courrier du Savoir – N°17, pp.175-184

  • Benkhaled A (2007) Distributions statistiques des pluies maximales annuelles dans la région du Cheliff: comparaison des techniques et des résultats. Courrier du Savoir, N°08, pp.83-91

  • Brandimarte L, Di Baldassarre G, Bruni G, D’Odorico P, Montanari A (2011) Relation between the North-Atlantic Oscillation and hydroclimatic conditions in Mediterranean areas. Water Resour Manag 25:1269–1279

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunetti M, Maugeri M, Nanni T (2001) Changes in total precipitation, rainy days and extreme events in northeastern Italy. Int J Climatol 21:861–871

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunetti M, Maugeri M, Nanni T (2002) Atmospheric circulation and precipitation in Italy for the last 50 years. Int J Climatology 22(12):1455–1471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunetti M, Maugeri M, Monti F, Nanni T (2004) Changes in daily precipitation frequency and distribution in Italy over the last 120 years. J Geophys Res 109, D05102. doi:10.1029/2003JD004296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E, Mancini M (2011) Precipitation change in southern Italy linked to global scale oscillation indexes. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:1683–1694

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chaouche K, Neppel L, Dieulin C, Pujol N, Ladouche B, Martin E, Salas D, Caballero Y (2010) Analyses of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration in a French Mediterranean region in the context of climate change. C R Geoscience 342:234–243

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Conte M, Giuffrida A, Tedesco S (1989) The Mediterranean Oscillation. Impact on precipitation and hydrology in Italy climate water. Publications of the Academy of Finland, Helsinki

    Google Scholar 

  • Driouech F, Déqué M, Sánchez-Gómez M (2010) Weather regimes—Moroccan precipitation link in a regional climate change simulation. Glob Planet Chang 72:1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dünkeloh A, Jacobeit J (2003) Circulation dynamics of Mediterranean precipitation variability 1948–98. Int J Climatol 23:1843–1866

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feidas H, Noulopoulou C, Makrogiannis T, Bora-Senta E (2007) Trend analysis of precipitation time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955–2001. Theor Appl Climatol 87:155–177

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferrari E, Caloiero T, Coscarelli R (2013) Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter rainfall in Calabria (southern Italy). Theor Appl Climatol 114:479–494

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F (2002) Variability and trends of sub-continental scale surface climate in the twentieth century. Part I: observations. ClimDyn 18:675–691. doi:10.1007/s00382-001-0204-x

    Google Scholar 

  • Gomis D, Tsimplis MN, Martin-Miguez B, Ratsiman-Dresy AW, Garcia-Lafuente J, Josey SA (2006) Mediterranean sea level and barotropic flow through the Strait of Gibraltar for the period 1958–2001 and reconstructed since 1659. Journal of Geophysical Research C 111(11):Article ID C11005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groisman PY, Knight RW, Easterling DR, Karl TR, Hegerl GC, Razuvaev VN (2005) Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. J Clim 18:1326–1350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Habibi B, Meddi M, Boucefiane A (2012) Analyse fréquentielle des pluies journalières maximales Cas du Bassin Chott-Chergui. Revue Nature &Technologie. C- Sciences de l’Environnement n°08:41–48

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacobeit J (2000) Rezente Klimaentwicklung im Mittelmeerraum. Petermanns Geographische Mitteilungen 144:22–33

    Google Scholar 

  • Khomsi K, Mahe G, Sinan M, Snoussi M (2013) Hydro-climatic variability in two Moroccan watersheds: a comparative analysis of temperature, rain and flow regimes. In: Climate and land surface changes in hydrology (E. Boegh, E. Blyth, D.M. Hannah, H. Hisdal, H. Kunstmann, B. Su, K.K. Yilmaz, Eds.), IAHS Publ. 359, 183–190.

  • Khomsi K, Mahe G, Sinan M, Snoussi M, Tramblay Y (2015) Trends in rainfall and temperature extremes in Morocco. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci Discussions 3:1175–1201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiladis GN, Diaz HF (1989) Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation. J Climate 2:1069–1090

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kingumbi A, Bergaoui Z, Bourges NJ, Hubert P, Kalled R (2000) Étude de l’évolution des séries pluviométriques de la Tunisie centrale. Documents Techniques en Hydrologie, n° 51 (“Hydrologie des Régions Méditerranéennes” Actes du Séminaire de Montpellier, 2000). UNESCO, Paris, pp 341–345

    Google Scholar 

  • Knippertz P, Christoph M, Speth P (2003a) Long-term precipitation variability in Morocco and the link to the large-scale circulation in recent and future climates. Meteorol Atmos Physn 83:67–88

  • Knippertz P, Ulbrich U, Marques F, Corte-Real J (2003b) Decadal changes in the link between El Niño and springtime North Atlantic Oscillation and European–North African rainfall. Int J Climatol 23:1293–1311

  • Kostopoulou E, Jones PD (2005) Assessment of climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:69–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laborde JP (1998) Rainfall maps of Northern Algeria at the scale of 1/500 000, sheet memoir. National Agency of Hydraulic resources, project PNUD/ALG/88/021, 1993. (In French)

  • Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders MA (2002) Seasonal prediction of European spring precipitation from El Niño–Southern Oscillation and local sea surfaces temperatures. Int J Climatol 22:1–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lopez J, Frances F (2010) Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the western Mediterranean Oscillation in the maximum flow events in Spain, International workshop advances in statistical hydrology, may 23–25, 2010 Taormina, Italy

    Google Scholar 

  • Lupikasza E (2008) Spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation in Poland in the period 1951–2006. Int J Climatol 30:991–1007

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahé G, Paturel JE (2009) 1896–2006 Sahelian rainfall variability and runoff increase of Sahelian rivers. CR Geosciences 341:538–546

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahé G, L’Hôte Y, Olivry JC, Wotling G (2001) Trends and discontinuities in regional rainfall of west and central Africa—1951–1989. Hydrol Sci J 46(2):211–226

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maheras P, Xoplaki E, Kutiel H (1999) Wet and dry monthly anomalies across the Mediterranean Basin and their relationship with correlation, 1860–1990. Theor Appl Climatol 64:189–199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maheras P, Tolika K, Anagnostopoulou C (2008) Relations entre les précipitations moyennes et extrêmes et les types de circulation atmosphérique en Belgique. Bulletin de la Société géographique de Liège 51(2008):115–125

    Google Scholar 

  • Mariotti A, Struglia MV, Zeng N, Lau KM (2002) The hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean region and implications for the water budget of the Mediterranean Sea. J Clim 15:1674–1690

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martinez MD, Lana X, Burguenoc A, Serra C (2007) Spatial and temporal daily rainfall regime in Catalonia (NE Spain) derived from four precipitation indices, years 1950–2000. Int J Climatol 27:123–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martín-Vide J, Lopez-Bustins JA (2006) The Western Mediterranean Oscillation and rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula. Int J Climatol 26:1455–1475

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meddi M, Hubert P (2003) Impact de la modification du régime pluviométrique sur les ressources en eau du Nord-Ouest de l’Algérie. Hydrology of the Mediterranean and semiarid Regions. IAHS 278:1–7

    Google Scholar 

  • Meddi H, Meddi M (2007) Variabilité spatiale et temporelle des précipitations du Nord-Ouest de l’Algérie. Géographia technica 2:49–55

    Google Scholar 

  • Meddi H, Meddi M (2009) Variabilité des précipitations annuelles du Nord-Ouest de l’Algérie. Sécheresse 20(1):173–184

    Google Scholar 

  • Meddi M, Talia A (2007) Pluviometric regime evolution in the north of Algeria. Arab Gulf J Sci Res 26:152–162, 01/2008

    Google Scholar 

  • Meddi M, Assani AA, Meddi H (2010) Temporal variability of annual rainfall in the Macta and Tafna catchments, northwestern Algeria. Water Resour Manage, n.24,

  • Medjerab A (2005) Régionalisation es pluies annuelles dansl’Algérie Nord-Occidentale. Revue géographique de l’Est, vol. 45 / 2 | 2005 | Climat, sécheresse et canicule

  • New M, Todd M, Hulme M, Jones P (2001) Precipitation measurements and tends in the twentieth century. Int J Climatol 21:1899–1922

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Norrant C, Douguédroit A (2004) Tendances des précipitations mensuelles et quotidiennes dans le Sud-Est méditerranéen français. Anales de l’association internationale de météorologie 1:45–64

    Google Scholar 

  • Ozer P, Hountondji YC, LaminouManzo O (2007) Evolution des caractéristiques pluviométriques dans l’est du Niger de 1940 à 2007. Geo-Eco-Trop 33:11–30, 2009

    Google Scholar 

  • Palutikof JP (2003) Analysis of Mediterranean climate data: measured and modelled. In: Bolle HJ (ed) Mediterranean climate: variability and trends. Springer, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  • Papadopoulos V, Josey S, Bartzokas A, Somot S, Ruiz S, Drakopoulou P (2012) Large-scale atmospheric circulation favoring deep- and intermediate-water formation in the Mediterranean Sea. J Clim 25:6079–6091

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paturel JE, Servat E, Delattre MO, Lubès-Niel H (1998) Analyse de séries pluviométriques de longue durée en Afrique de l’Ouest et Centrale non sahélienne dans un contexte de variabilité climatique. Journal des sciences hydrologiques 43:937–946

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Philandras CM, Nastos PT, Kapsomenakis J, Douvis KC, Tselioudis G, Zerefos CS (2011) Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:3235–3250

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Price C, Stone L, Rajagopalan B, Alpert P (1998) A possible link between El Nino and precipitation in Israel. Geophys Res Let 25:3963–3966

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reale O, Feudale L, Turato B (2001) Evaporative moisture sources during a sequence of floods in the Mediterranean region. Geophys Res Let 28:2085–2088

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodo X, Baert E, Comin FA (1997) Variations in seasonal rainfall in Southern Europe during the present century: relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Clim Dyn 13:275–278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodrigo FS, Trigo RM (2007) Trends in daily rainfall the Iberian Peninsula from 1951 to 2002. Int J Climatol 27:513–529

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodwell MJ, Hoskins BJ (1996) Monsoons and the dynamics of deserts. Q J Roy Met Soc 122:1385–1404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sahani M, Moeyersons J, Vandecasteele I, Trefois P, Ozer P (2012) Evolution des caractéristiques pluviométriques dans la zone urbaine de Butembo (RDC) de 1957 à 2010. Geo-Eco-Trop 2012(36):121–136

    Google Scholar 

  • Salameh T (2008). Modélisation multi-échelles de la circulation atmosphérique hivernale sur le bassin méditerranéen: rôle des interactions d’échelles. Thèse de doctorat, école polytechnique, France, 156p.

  • Singla S, Mahé G, Dieulin C, Driouech F, Milano M, El Guelai FZ, Ardoin-Bardin S (2010) Evolution des relations pluie-débit sur des basins versants du Maroc. In: Global change: facing risks and threats to water resources (Proc. of the Sixth World FRIEND Conference, Fez, Morocco, October 2010), IAHS Publ. 340, 679–687

  • Suselj K, Bergant K (2006) Mediterranean Oscillation Index. Geophysical Research Abstracts 8, 02145 European Geosciences Union.

  • Taibi S, Souag D (2011) Regionalization of drought in Northern Algeria using a standardized precipitation index (1936–2010). In: From prediction to prevention of hydrological risk in Mediterranean countries (E. Ferrari & P. Versace, Sci. Eds), 4th international workshop on hydrological extremes MEDFRIEND group, University of Calabria; EdiBios, Cosenza, Italia; 169–182.

  • Taibi S, Meddi M, Souag D, Mahe G (2013) Évolution et régionalisation des précipitations au nord de l'Algérie (1936–2009). In: Climate and land surface changes in hydrology, IAHS Publ. 359, 191–197

  • Tramblay Y, El Adlouni S, Servat E (2013) Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:3235–3248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Oldenborgh GJ, Burgers G, Tank AK (2000) On the El Niño teleconnection to spring precipitation in Europe. Int J Climatol 20:565–574

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vannitsem S, Demarée G (1991) Détection et modélisation des sécheresses au Sahel: Propositions d’une nouvelle méthodologie. Hydrol Cont 6:155–171

    Google Scholar 

  • Xoplaki E, Luterbacher J, Patrikas J, Maheras P (2000) Les précipitations hivernales en Grèce et leurs relations avec la circulation atmosphérique au niveau de 500 hPa. Clim Res 14:129–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xoplaki E, Gonzalez-Rouco JF, Luterbacher J, Wanner H (2004) Wet season Mediterranean precipitation variability: influence of large-scale dynamics and trends. Clim Dyn 23:63–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank Algerian institutions (Agence Nationale des Ressources Hydrauliques, Office National de Météorologie) for providing data series and assistance. The Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD, France) is gratefully acknowledged for its support of this research project. This project also benefited from support from the SIGMED (AUF, MeRSI) project.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ecole Nationale Supérieure d’Hydraulique, LGEE, Blida, Algeria

    S. Taibi & M. Meddi

  2. IRD, Laboratoire HydroSciences Montpellier, Montpellier, France

    G. Mahé

  3. Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières, Canada

    A. Assani

Authors
  1. S. Taibi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. M. Meddi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. G. Mahé
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. A. Assani
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to S. Taibi.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Taibi, S., Meddi, M., Mahé, G. et al. Relationships between atmospheric circulation indices and rainfall in Northern Algeria and comparison of observed and RCM-generated rainfall. Theor Appl Climatol 127, 241–257 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1626-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1626-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation