Abstract
Climate change has many impacts on biodiversity. The objective of this study was to model the habitat suitability of Lantana camara in the Amhara region under the current climate. A total of 64 occurrence points of L. camara and less collinear predictor variables such as Mean Diurnal Range (Bio02), Temperature Seasonality (Bio04), Annual Precipitation (Bio12), Precipitation of Driest Month (Bio14), Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (Bio18), Precipitation of Coldest Quarter (Bio19), Solar radiation (Srad) and Topographic index (Tpi) were used as input parameters. “GLM”, “GAM”, “BIOCLIM”, “BRT”, “RF”, and “MARS” models were computed with R4.1.3 using presence and background data, and the predictor variables. All models were evaluated using “AUC”, “TSS”, “COR” and “Deviance”. Random forest (RF) performed better with 98% AUC, 86% COR, 93% TSS, and 11% Deviance, followed by “BRT” with 96% AUC, 75% COR, 90% TSS, and 19% Deviance. However, all models predicted that the large areas of East Amhara are highly suitable hotspots for L. camara. The study showed that Precipitation of Warmest Quarter, Mean Diurnal Range, and Precipitation of Driest Month play the major role in the distribution of L. camara with 39.6%, 34.9%, and 28.2% contributions, respectively. The simple average of models also showed that the dry-lands and hotspot areas of Wollo, Shewa, West Gojjam, and North Gondar of the Amhara region are still suitable areas for L. camara. Therefore, these findings can be used as inputs to manage the invasion of L. camara over the drylands and hotspot areas of the Amhara region. So, uninvaded areas should be continually monitored and should be protected from the invasion of L. camara, and presently invaded areas of the regions should be managed to reduce the effect of L. camara on the ecosystem.
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The National Herbarium of Ethiopia (Addis Ababa University) is acknowledged for providing access to herbarium specimens.
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MA initiated the idea, designed and conducted research; and analysed the data and wrote the manuscript. TB supervised the research work.
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Seid, M.A., Bekele, T. Analyses of habitat suitability and invasion potential of Lantana camara under current climate in Amhara Region, Ethiopia: an implication for environmental management. Biol Invasions 25, 153–163 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-022-02910-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-022-02910-7