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Combining the effects of biological invasion and climate change into systematic conservation planning for the Atlantic Forest

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Abstract

Biological invasions and climate changes are the major causes of changes in biodiversity, which reduce, shift, and extinguish species ranges. While climate changes have been widely used in systematic conservation planning (SCP), biological invasions are rarely considered. Here, we combine the effects of climate changes and Artocarpus heterophyllus Lam. (Moraceae) invasion on the SCP for endemic aromatic fruit tree species from the Atlantic Forest (EFAF). We tested the effect of invasion on SCP measures of species turnover, biotic stability, and irreplaceability. Ecological niche models were used to establish species environmental suitability for the preindustrial period for both invasive species and EFAF and to forecast to the end of the century (2080–2100). We calculated the niche overlap between the invasive species and EFAF and tested the overlap significance using a null model. We tested the biological invasion effect on the results using results with no species invasion correction. The niche overlap between A. heterophyllus and EFAF was significant for 50% of species in the preindustrial period and for 33% in the future. The spatial patterns of species turnover, biotic stability, and irreplaceability had significant effects on biological invasion changing the spatial pattern in both shape and magnitude, which can misplace and overvalue conservation priorities. We showed that the disregard of biological invasion on SCP can cause negative effects on SCP under climate change. We strongly recommend accounting for biological invasion in the evaluation of SCP.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) [442103/2014-0] and developed in the context of the National Institutes for Science and Technology (INCT) in Ecology, Evolution and Biodiversity Conservation, supported by MCTIC/CNPq [465610/2014-5] and FAPEG. DSS and MCSS are grateful for the scholarship provided by FAPESB [6166/2014 and 5878/2015]. We are grateful to Dr. Thiago F. Rangel for providing the use of BioEnsembles, to the World Climate Research Programmer’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling for providing CMIP5, to the climate-modeling group from NCAR for producing and making available CCSM, to Dr. Alessandra N. Caiafa for the first insight on the risk of jackfruit invasion, and to two anonymous reviewers that helped with their suggestions to improve and clarify previous versions of our manuscript.

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  1. Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação, Instituto de Biologia, Centro de Ciências Agrárias, Ambientais e Biológicas, Universidade Federal do Recôncavo da Bahia, Rua Rui Barbosa, 710, Centro, Cruz das Almas, Bahia, 44380000, Brazil

    Guilherme de Oliveira, Daniela da Silva dos Santos, Vinícius Queiroz de Matos & Maria Cecília Seara Santos

  2. Laboratório de Modelagem Ecológica, Coordenação de Ciência da Terra e Ecologia, Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Avenida Perimetral, 1901, Terra Firme, Belém, Pará, 66077530, Brazil

    Bruno de Souza Barreto

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  1. Guilherme de Oliveira
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Correspondence to Guilherme de Oliveira.

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de Oliveira, G., de Souza Barreto, B., da Silva dos Santos, D. et al. Combining the effects of biological invasion and climate change into systematic conservation planning for the Atlantic Forest. Biol Invasions 20, 2753–2765 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-018-1727-y

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