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An optimization framework to evaluate the resiliency of a hospital network based on the seismic vulnerability of a building stock: insights from Bayrakli Izmir

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Abstract

Identifying seismic risk factors and determining necessary resources are critical for effective post-earthquake mitigation planning. This usually involves field assessments, data collection, and disaster scenario simulations. After an earthquake, the focus is on providing medical services and although hospitals are vital in saving lives, they may become overwhelmed with injured patients. As a result, it is essential to establish post-disaster strategies to ensure continued access to medical services. This study introduces a framework that analyses an earthquake’s temporal effect on a hospital network’s emergency response capabilities under various casualty transfer strategies. The framework initially evaluates the seismic vulnerability of buildings to estimate the medical demand and subsequently assesses the resilience of the hospital network based on patients waiting times for ambulance arrivals and treatment in the emergency departments of the hospitals. The model determines the optimal allocation of emergency department capacity across the hospital network and evaluates each hospital’s performance. The framework is implemented in Bayrakli, a metropolitan district in Izmir, Turkey, which has a unique building inventory dataset. The study demonstrated how various casualty transfer decisions can expedite the transportation process, providing valuable insights for creating effective emergency management and mitigation strategies in areas that are prone to earthquakes.

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Data Availability

To obtain access to the data, please send a request to the Department of Earthquake Risk Management and Urban Development at Izmir Metropolitan Municipality.

Code Availability

Available upon request.

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Acknowledgements

We express our appreciation to the Izmir Metropolitan Municipality-Department of Earthquake Risk Management and Urban Development for providing us with the building inventory data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dokuz Eylul University, 08544, Buca, Izmir, Turkey

    Gulsah Olgun & Ozgur Ozcelik

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  1. Gulsah Olgun
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  2. Ozgur Ozcelik
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Conceptualization, data curation, formal analysis, methodology, visualization, and writing by GO. Supervision, project administration, and resources by OO.

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Correspondence to Gulsah Olgun.

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Olgun, G., Ozcelik, O. An optimization framework to evaluate the resiliency of a hospital network based on the seismic vulnerability of a building stock: insights from Bayrakli Izmir. Bull Earthquake Eng 22, 1485–1513 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-023-01815-7

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