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3D physics-based seismic shaking scenarios for city of Zagreb, Capital of Croatia

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Abstract

In this work, we assess ground shaking in the wider Zagreb area by computing simulated seismograms at regional distances. For the purposes of the simulations, we assemble the 3D velocity and density model and test its performance. First, we compare the low-frequency simulations obtained using deterministic method for both new 3D model and a simple 1D model. We then continue the performance test by computing the full broadband seismograms. To do that, we apply the hybrid technique in which the low frequency (f < 1 Hz) and high frequency (f = 1–10 Hz) seismograms are obtained separately using deterministic and stochastic method, respectively, and then reconciled into a single time series. We apply this method to the MW = 5.3 event and four smaller (3.0 < MW < 5.0) events that occurred in the studied region. We compare simulated data with the recorded seismograms and validate our results by calculating the goodness of fit score for peak ground velocity and shaking duration. Next, to improve the understanding of the strong ground motion in this area, we simulate seismic shaking scenarios for the 1880, MW = 6.2 earthquake. From computed low-frequency waveforms, we generate shakemaps and compare the ground-motion features of the two possible sources of this event, Kašina fault and North Medvednica fault. We conduct a preliminary study to determine which fault is a more probable source of the 1880 historic event by comparing the peak ground velocities and Arias intensity with the observed intensities.

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Data availability

Model for the wider Zagreb area is publicly available and can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5347289. The seismograms used in the study were recorded by seismological stations of the Croatian Seismograph Network (CSN).

Code availability

For purposes of this study we used GP method implemented within SCEC Broadband Platform software system and SPECFEM3D Cartesian wave propagation code.

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Acknowledgements

This work has been supported in part by the Croatian Science Foundation under the Project No. IP-2020-02-3960. IM has been partially supported by the European Commission, H2020 Excellence Science [ChEESE (Grant No. 823844)]. The authors would like to thank Prof. Marijan Herak for sharing his fault plane solutions for the events used in simulations, insightful feedback and abundance of helpful advice to conduct this research. We are also grateful to Robert W. Graves for the advice and help he provided us on the workflow of the GP method. GP method is implemented within SCEC Broadband Platform software system (Graves and Pitarka 2015; Maechling et al. 2015). The SPECFEM3D Cartesian wave propagation code is available at geodynamics.org/cig/software/specfem3d/ (accessed Jan 2021). This research was performed using the resources of computer cluster Isabella based in SRCE—University of Zagreb University Computing Centre. The seismograms used in the study were recorded by seismological stations of the Croatian Seismograph Network (CSN).

Funding

This work has been supported in part by the Croatian Science Foundation under the Project No. IP-2020-02-3960.

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  1. Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

    Helena Latečki & Josip Stipčević

  2. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Di Bologna, Bologna, Italy

    Irene Molinari

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Latečki, H., Molinari, I. & Stipčević, J. 3D physics-based seismic shaking scenarios for city of Zagreb, Capital of Croatia. Bull Earthquake Eng 20, 167–192 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01227-5

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