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A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Turkish territory: part II—fault source and background seismicity model

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Abstract

Over the years, several local and regional seismic hazard studies have been conducted for the estimation of the seismic hazard in Turkey using different statistical processing tools for instrumental and historical earthquake data and modeling the geologic and tectonic characteristics of the region. Recently developed techniques, increased knowledge and improved databases brought the necessity to review the national active fault database and the compiled earthquake catalogue for the development of a national earthquake hazard map. A national earthquake strategy and action plan were conceived and accordingly with the collaboration of the several institutions and expert researchers, the Revision of Turkish Seismic Hazard Map Project (UDAP-Ç-13-06) was initiated, and finalized at the end of 2014. The scope of the project was confined to the revision of current national seismic hazard map, using the state of the art technologies and knowledge of the active fault, earthquake database, and ground motion prediction equations. The following two seismic source zonation models are developed for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis: (1) Area source model, (2) Fault and spatial smoothing seismic source model (FSBCK). In this study, we focus on the development and the characterization of the Fault Source model, the background spatially smoothed seismicity model and intrinsic uncertainty on the earthquake occurrence-rates-estimation. Finally, PSHA results obtained from the fault and spatial smoothed seismic source model are presented for 43, 72, 475 and 2475 years return periods (corresponding to 69, 50, 10, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years) for PGA and 5% damped spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1.0 s.

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Acknowledgements

First, we would like to express our gratitude to Sinan Akkar for his kind coordination of the project titled as "The update of the seismic hazard maps of Turkey", and to Mustafa Erdik for his suggestions and comments, which helped us to considerably improve the project. We would like to thank various local researchers who gave us feedback and comments: Tolga Yılmaz, Ahmet Yakut, from Middle East Technical University; Murat Utkucu from Sakarya University. We also acknowledge Laurentiu Danciu from ETHZ, Roberto Basili from INGV, and Tuba Eroglu Azak who wrote and improved the codes and some scripts used in the calculation of some parameters. The study has been sponsored by AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Authority of Turkey) under Project Code UDAP-Ç-13-16. We would also like to thank Dr. Baumont for his review and suggestions for the improvement of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Mine Betül Demircioğlu, Karin Şeşetyan & Semih Ergintav

  2. FugroSial Geosciences Consulting and Engineering, Farabi Sok. 40/4 06680, Çankaya/Ankara, Turkey

    Tamer Y. Duman

  3. Department of Geology, Cukurova University, Adana, Turkey

    Tolga Çan & Senem Tekin

Authors
  1. Mine Betül Demircioğlu
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  2. Karin Şeşetyan
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  3. Tamer Y. Duman
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  4. Tolga Çan
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  5. Senem Tekin
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  6. Semih Ergintav
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Correspondence to Mine Betül Demircioğlu.

Appendix: earthquake reccurence relationships for each completeness region

Appendix: earthquake reccurence relationships for each completeness region

See Figs. 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38 and 39.

Fig. 29
figure 29

Earthquake recurrence parameters for Balkan Region (A)

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Fig. 30
figure 30

Earthquake recurrence parameters for Black Sea Region (B)

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Fig. 31
figure 31

Earthquake recurrence parameters for Caucasus Region (C)

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Fig. 32
figure 32

Earthquake recurrence parameters for Marmara Region (D)

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Fig. 33
figure 33

Earthquake recurrence parameters for NAF Zone (E)

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Fig. 34
figure 34

Earthquake recurrence parameters for East Anatolia (F)

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Fig. 35
figure 35

Earthquake recurrence parameters for Aegean region (G)

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Fig. 36
figure 36

Earthquake recurrence parameters for Central Anatolia (H)

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Fig. 37
figure 37

Earthquake recurrence parameters for EAF Zone (I)

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Fig. 38
figure 38

Earthquake recurrence parameters for Mediterranean Shallow (J)

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Fig. 39
figure 39

Earthquake recurrence parameters for Mediterranean Deep (K)

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Demircioğlu, M.B., Şeşetyan, K., Duman, T.Y. et al. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Turkish territory: part II—fault source and background seismicity model. Bull Earthquake Eng 16, 3399–3438 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0130-x

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