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Stochastic bioeconomic analysis of intensive African Catfish cultivation with three sources of uncertainty

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Abstract

This study aims at the development of a bioeconomic model that incorporates three different sources of stochasticity occurring simultaneously in the intensive rearing system of African catfish (Clarias gariepinus). The bioeconomic model was constructed with experimental data from a 4-month feeding trial with juveniles of the African catfish in the recirculating aquaculture system, by adjusting the equations that replicate the behaviour of the variables in the system according to the observed data. Survival, individual growth, and feed consumption were the variables identified to display random pattern. The model was validated and used to perform a series of simulations based on specific assumptions to provide meaningful information for the decision-making process about the system. Monte Carlo technique was used to determine the posterior probability to reach bioeconomic reference points. The target reference point was to make a profit of USD 979, in no more than 204 days with 97% fish of 1000 g or higher for a harvest of 776 kg wet weight.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the National Science and Technology Council (CONACYT), Mexico, for the PhD scholarship given to the first author to study Bioeconomics of Fisheries and Aquaculture.

Funding

This work was supported by the Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research (NIOMR), Lagos, Nigeria.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Fisheries Technology, Federal College of Fisheries and Marine Technology, Victoria Island, Lagos, Nigeria

    Babatunde Olaseni Musa

  2. Universidad Marista de Mérida, Periférico Norte Tablaje 13941, Carretera Mérida-8 Progreso, C.P. 97300, Mérida, Yucatan, México

    Babatunde Olaseni Musa, Alvaro Hernández-Flores, José A. Duarte & Raúl Villanueva-Poot

  3. Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research, Victoria Island, Lagos, Nigeria

    Oludare Akanni Adeogun

Authors
  1. Babatunde Olaseni Musa
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  2. Alvaro Hernández-Flores
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  3. Oludare Akanni Adeogun
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  4. José A. Duarte
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  5. Raúl Villanueva-Poot
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Contributions

Babatunde Olaseni Musa wrote the main manuscript text; Alvaro Hernández-Flores designed the mathematical model; Oludare Akanni Adeogun carried out the experiment; José A. Duarte developed the program routine for Monte Carlo analysis; Raúl Villanueva-Poot reviewed the manuscript; all authors reviewed the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alvaro Hernández-Flores.

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Human and animal ethics

The experimental procedures and handling of the fish did not require any ethical approval.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Handling editor: Adrian Billeter

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Annex

Annex

The following code was used in the “Macro” (program routine) in Visual Basic language to apply the Monte Carlo technique in the bioeconomic model in an Excel spreadsheet.

Sub Montecarlo()

Dim i As Long, c As Long

c = Val(InputBox("No_of_iterations", , 100))

Sheets("Montecarlo").Range("A7:C1048576").Clear

Application.ScreenUpdating = False

For i = 1 To c

Sheets("Model").Select

Sheets("Model").Range("O5:O13").Select

Selection.Copy

Sheets("Montecarlo").Select

Sheets("Montecarlo").Range("A6").Select

ActiveCell.Offset(i, 0).Range("A1").Select

Selection.PasteSpecial Paste:=xlPasteValues, Transpose:=True

Next i

End Sub

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Musa, B.O., Hernández-Flores, A., Adeogun, O.A. et al. Stochastic bioeconomic analysis of intensive African Catfish cultivation with three sources of uncertainty. Aquacult Int 30, 2919–2935 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10499-022-00938-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10499-022-00938-z

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