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Regional and national changes in soil carbon stocks with land-use change from 1990 to 2016 for New Zealand

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Abstract

In accord with the Paris Agreement, New Zealand has committed to reducing national greenhouse gas emissions to 30% below 2005 levels by 2030 and further reductions by 2050. Exports of products from agriculture, horticulture, and forestry are important industries, but these industries also contribute 49% of the national greenhouse gas emissions. Research to develop and adopt mitigation practices is underway, but New Zealand also supports the aims of the 4 per 1000 Initiative to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and remove atmospheric CO2 globally. We used the Soil Carbon Monitoring System statistical model, which is specific to New Zealand, to estimate the effects of land-use change on spatial changes in SOC stocks to a depth of 0.3 m at regional and national scales for the period 1990–2016. During this period, land-use change occurred on only 8.45% of the national land area, and this led to a mean decrease in SOC stocks of 3.3 tC ha−1 on the area where land use changed. This was attributable mainly to the known reductions in SOC stocks that occur when grassland is converted to post-1989 forest, but the effects were dependent on regional land use and slope class. Although the estimated national decrease in SOC stocks of 8.435 MtC was only 0.45% of the total national SOC stocks and 0.35% of the carbon stored in vegetation, our analysis highlights the need for changes to land management practices for New Zealand to increase its SOC stocks.

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Acknowledgements

We dedicate this contribution to our late colleague and friend Kevin R. Tate. Kevin devoted his career to understanding the processes regulating soil carbon dynamics, provided the inspiration for and pioneered the development of the Soil Carbon Monitoring System, and was passionate about the urgency to increase soil carbon stocks and reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. We thank the Ministry for the Environment for allowing us to use data from the Land Use Map. This work was funded by the New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre and Strategic Science Investment Funding to Manaaki Whenua—Landcare Research from the New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment.

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  1. Manaaki Whenua—Landcare Research, PO Box 69040, Lincoln, 7640, New Zealand

    David Whitehead & Stephen J. E. McNeill

  2. Manaaki Whenua—Landcare Research, Private Bag 3127, Hamilton, 3240, New Zealand

    Paul L. Mudge

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  2. Stephen J. E. McNeill
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Correspondence to David Whitehead.

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Supplementary Information

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Supplementary file1

Probability density of estimated changes in SOC stocks in the period 1990–2016 for the polygons used in the model. The bin width is 2 tC ha-1 (PDF 344 kB)

Supplementary file2

Changes in area (km2) for each land-use class used in the model in the period 1990–2016 for the 16 regions of New Zealand, listed from north to south. Cells with decreases in area are shaded in grey (PDF 303 kB)

Supplementary file3

National changes in SOC stocks (ktC) between 1990 and 2016 for all land-use class transitions. The direction of the changes is from the horizontal axis to the vertical axis. Cells with decreases in SOC stocks are shaded in grey. There were no pre-1990 planted forests and no transitions for open water wetlands and settlements, but the rows and columns have been retained for completeness. The numbers along the diagonal should be zero, but the notable difference is with transition to and from high-producing grassland. This apparent change in SOC stock is likely to be attributable to differences in mapping areas at the four times between 1990 and 2016, or where high-producing grassland had reverted to another land use, then reconverted back to high-producing grassland during the period (PDF 309 kB)

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Whitehead, D., McNeill, S.J.E. & Mudge, P.L. Regional and national changes in soil carbon stocks with land-use change from 1990 to 2016 for New Zealand. Reg Environ Change 21, 121 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01837-4

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