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Current and future suitability areas of kermes oak (Quercus coccifera L.) in the Levant under climate change

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Abstract

Quercus coccifera L. (Kermes oak) is an evergreen oak, typical of the maquis in the eastern and south-eastern part of the Mediterranean. It occurs almost continuously along the Syrian–Lebanese coast up to 1500 m and is more scattered inland, up to the arid southernmost area of Petra in Jordan. Human impact and global warming both strongly affect the natural distribution of the species, thus leading to a widespread forest fragmentation in the whole region. In this study, we investigate the current bioclimatic range of Kermes oak and forecast which areas are potentially most suitable over the course of the twenty-first century. Ecological niche modelling was used to retrieve the environmental envelope of the species according to 23 topographic and climate variables. Five algorithms and three general circulation models were applied to provide the potential distribution of Kermes oak at the present time and project it to the future. Results showed a current suitability area in the Middle East extending from NW of Syria, rather continuously along the Lebanese coasts and inland up to the Mediterranean western slopes of Palestine and the Golan area (Israel), encompassing the Jordan Valley towards Dana and Wadi Rum (Jordan), with an isolated patch in Jabal Al-Arab (South Syria). Future scenarios depict a significant fragmentation and restriction of Kermes oak range, especially in the north of Syria and Golan, with a general shifting in altitude. This information may be useful in helping the foresters to cope with the challenge of climate changes by identifying the most suitable areas climatically effective for successful ecosystem restoration and management, including reforestation programmes.

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Acknowledgments

We are thankful to the Institutions and persons who provided the presence data points of Q. coccifera in the Levant, namely: Prof. Magda Bou Dagher Kharrat (Saint Joseph University, Beirut, Lebanon), Lebanon Reforestation Initiative (LRI, http://lri-lb.org/), Israel Biodiversity Information System (http://www.biogis.huji.ac.il) for the online dataset freely available on species distributions in Israel, Prof. Mutaz Al-Qutob, Prof. Khalid Sawalha and Prof. Jihad Abbadi (Al-Quds University of Jerusalem, State of Palestine). This work was partially funded by the European Project “Reinforcing Capacity Building for Defending Biodiversity in the Palestinian Territories” (DEBPAL2, Grant agreement n. 294936) through the 7th Framework Programme.

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  1. Dipartimento Agricoltura, Foreste, Natura ed Energia (D.A.F.N.E.), Università degli Studi della Tuscia, Via S. Camillo de Lellis, snc, 01100, Viterbo, Italy

    Nisreen Al-Qaddi, Federico Vessella & Bartolomeo Schirone

  2. Faculty of Science II- Department of Earth and Life Science, Lebanese University, Fanar, Lebanon

    Jean Stephan

  3. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Jordan, Amman, 11942, Jordan

    Dawud Al-Eisawi

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  1. Nisreen Al-Qaddi
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  2. Federico Vessella
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Correspondence to Federico Vessella.

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Al-Qaddi, N., Vessella, F., Stephan, J. et al. Current and future suitability areas of kermes oak (Quercus coccifera L.) in the Levant under climate change. Reg Environ Change 17, 143–156 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-0987-2

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