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Technology development for electric vehicles under new energy vehicle credit regulation in China: scenarios through 2030

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Abstract

The newly launched new energy vehicle credit regulation scheme is expected to have a dramatic impact on the development of the Chinese and global new energy vehicle markets. This paper establishes a bottom-up framework to estimate the impacts of regulation on the technological trends of battery electric vehicles based on the most up-to-date data from the market in China. The results suggest that mini-electric cars will always be the most credit cost-effective. Moreover, 350 km will be the optimal driving range under the credit regulation. With the development of energy-saving technologies, midsize electric vehicles will increase in popularity before 2020 and be the first to receive the highest credit of 6. Additionally, promoted by the regulation, the investment in energy-saving technologies will reduce the cost of batteries and lead to higher credits, especially for large-class and high electric range vehicles. However, the regulation likely faces the risk of losing this positive effect in 2025 or even earlier. To avoid such a circumstance, the relevant policies should be modified before such a scenario occurs.

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Abbreviations

BAU:

Business-as-usual

BEV:

Battery electric vehicle

BEVx:

Range-extended electric vehicle

CAFC:

Corporate average fuel consumption

CAFE:

Corporate average fuel economy

CATC:

China automotive test cycle

EPA:

Environmental protection agency

FCV:

Fuel cell vehicle

HICE:

Hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicle

MIIT:

Ministry of industry and information technology

MPV:

Multi-purpose vehicle

MSRP:

Manufacturer’s suggested retail price

NEDC:

New European Driving Cycle

NEV:

New energy vehicle

NHTSA:

National highway traffic safety administration

OEM:

Original equipment manufacturer

PHEV:

Plug-in electric vehicle

TZEV:

Transitional zero emission vehicle

ZEV:

Zero emission vehicle

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Acknowledgements

This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 71403142, 71774100, and 71690241) and the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (ZLY2015017). The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their reviews and comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

    Fuquan Zhao, Kangda Chen, Han Hao, Sinan Wang & Zongwei Liu

  2. Tsinghua Automotive Strategy Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

    Fuquan Zhao, Kangda Chen, Han Hao, Sinan Wang & Zongwei Liu

Authors
  1. Fuquan Zhao
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  2. Kangda Chen
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  3. Han Hao
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  4. Sinan Wang
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  5. Zongwei Liu
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Correspondence to Zongwei Liu.

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Zhao, F., Chen, K., Hao, H. et al. Technology development for electric vehicles under new energy vehicle credit regulation in China: scenarios through 2030. Clean Techn Environ Policy 21, 275–289 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-018-1635-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-018-1635-y

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