Abstract
Factors related to rainfall variabilities in southern and southeastern Ethiopia have not yet been addressed. The extreme wet and dry events caused by atmospheric circulation patterns during the March-April-May periods were studied using 1991–2022 data from Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and atmospheric circulation anomalies datasets. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF), precipitation concentration index (PCI), and coefficient of variation (CV) are used to determine the interannual variation. The study revealed that both PCI and CV exhibit rainfall variability with increasing magnitude from west to east of the region, while the first mode of EOF showed a dominantly uniform pattern and accounted for 48.8% of the observed variance. Eight extreme dry and four extreme wet years were also observed. Composite analyses suggested that the study area during wet years were characterized by convergence or divergence of velocity potential, and decrease or increase of vertical velocity at lower or upper troposphere which favorable conditions to vertical motion, while opposite phenomena observed during dry periods. Westerly winds from the southern Atlantic Ocean were associating with wet, while easterly winds from the Indian Ocean with dry. The study found a negative correlation between rainfall and Azores SLP, a positive correlation with Indian Ocean SST, and 62.5% of the driest periods coexisted with La Niña events. In summary, Indian Ocean SST, Nino Index 3.4, Azores SLP, South Atlantic 850-hPa westerly winds, and vertical velocity are predictive factors that should be considered in the rainfall forecasting process in the study area.
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Acknowledgements
The first author would like to thank the Chinese Government Scholarship Committee (CSC) for giving me an educational opportunity at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS). He also thanks Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Prediction (ECWMF), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) for providing me with rainfall and atmospheric data respectively.
Funding
This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants 42230605 and 42175041, the International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences for Future Network (060GJHZ2022104FN), and the Basic Scientific Program of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
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All authors contributed to the conception and design of the study. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by “Tewelde Berihu, Wen Chen, and Lin Wang”. The first draft of the manuscript was written by “Tewelde Berihu”, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript, and then all authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Berihu, T., Chen, W. & Wang, L. Rainfall variability and its teleconnection with atmospheric circulation anomalies over southern and southeastern region, Ethiopia. Theor Appl Climatol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04956-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04956-0