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Increased frequency of flash floods in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia: Change in rainfall intensity or human impact?

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Abstract

In the first decade of the twenty-first century, Ethiopia has been subjected to an increased frequency of flash floods, especially in the town of Dire Dawa. The results of international organizations studies point to no evidence of a climate-driven change in the magnitude/frequency of floods, though increases in runoff and risk of floods in East Africa are expected. Flash floods are posing constraints to the economic growth and the development process of a low-income country such as Ethiopia, and, in order to mitigate such hazard, it is crucial to understand the relative roles of two main factors: rainfall intensity and land use change. This study analyses the recent trends of rainfall intensity across Ethiopia and investigates the relative role of rainfall intensity and land use change in augmenting the frequency of flash flooding of the town of Dire Dawa by the Dechatu River. Results indicate that the increase in rainfall intensity is a more important factor than land use change in controlling the increased frequency of flash flood in Dire Dawa.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are indebted to two anonymous referees who posed key points, stimulated discussion, and greatly improved the general quality of the manuscript. This paper was funded by the National Geography Grant 8400-08, University of Ferrara and University of Dire Dawa funds. The authors are indebted to Girma Moges and to the technical staff of the Geography Department of Dire Dawa University for their assistance during the field measurements on the Dechatu River. The Department of Hydrology of the Ethiopian Ministry of Water Resources is acknowledged for providing the flow level data of the Dechatu River.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dipartimento di Fisica e Scienze della Terra, Università di Ferrara, Via G. Saragat 1, 44122, Ferrara, Italy

    Paolo Billi

  2. Department of Geography, University of Dire Dawa, P.O. Box 1362, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

    Yonas Tadesse Alemu

  3. School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Cardiff, Park Place, Cardiff, CF10 3AT, UK

    Rossano Ciampalini

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  1. Paolo Billi
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Correspondence to Paolo Billi.

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Billi, P., Alemu, Y.T. & Ciampalini, R. Increased frequency of flash floods in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia: Change in rainfall intensity or human impact?. Nat Hazards 76, 1373–1394 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1554-0

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