Abstract
A large part of Brazil is highly vulnerable to climate changes projected for the end of the 21st century. Analyzing these vulnerabilities is particularly important for agriculture, since the country is one of the largest agricultural commodity producers in the world. Changes in the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) can impact crops and make cultivation unfeasible. However, studies on ETo patterns under climate change scenarios for Brazil have been restricted to regional scales and use too few climate models or too simplified water balance models for their analysis. This can lead to uncertainties in assessing the impacts of climate change on ETo. Therefore, this study seeks to analyze ETo patterns in Brazil towards the end of the 21st century using two methods that are better at estimating regional ETo, i.e., the Turc and Abtew methods, under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Daily data on near-surface air temperature (mean and maximum), global solar radiation, and near-surface relative humidity from six General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to analyze the simulations and projections for climate change. The performance of climate simulations is heterogeneous among the GCMs, with overestimations (~ 2.5 mm day− 1) in some models, and underestimations (~ 1.5 mm day− 1) in others. In general, climate change projections indicate increases of up to 1 mm day− 1 in ETo, mainly in the North, Northeast, and Center-West regions of Brazil. Both estimation methods showed similar spatial patterns, however the Turc method projected lower intensity changes compared to the Abtew method.
Highlights
The Turc method showed the best performance in estimating ETo, resulting in more reliable climate simulation and projections.
There was divergence between climate models when simulating solar radiation and relative humidity.
Climate models projected an increase in temperature (mean and maximum), and a reduction in relative humidity towards the end of the 21st century.
The projected ETo showed similar patterns between the Turc and Abtew methods.
Increases from 0.4 to 1 mm day− 1 are projected for ETo in the North, Northeast, and Center-West of Brazil, and from 0.2 to 0.4 mm day− 1 in the South of Brazil.
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Data availability
The data used in the article will be fully available, in order to contribute to transparency. If was necessary, all data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the Minas Gerais Research Support Foundation (FAPEMIG) for financially supporting projects, and for granting scholarships to the 1st author (FAPEMIG process number ID-13748–5.304/15), and to also thank the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES, process numbers 1780316 and 88882.430051/2019-01), for granting scholarships to the 1st and 4th authors, and the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq, process numbers 309215/2021-8 and 306845/2021-0) for the research fellowship granted to the 2nd and 3rd authors. The authors also thank Ph.D. Alexandre Cândido Xavier for making available the observed spatialized data on the Brazilian territory, and the Natural Resources Institute of Universidade Federal de Itajubá for providing subsidies to the publication of this article.
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Financial support was received from Minas Gerais Research Support Foundation (FAPEMIG) for granting scholarships to the 1st author (FAPEMIG process number ID-13748–5.304/15), from Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES, process numbers 1780316 and 88882.430051/2019-01) for granting scholarships to the 1st and 4th authors, and from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq, process numbers 309215/2021-8 and 306845/2021-0) for the research fellowship granted to the 2nd and 3rd authors.
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Monteiro, A. F. M.: Conceptualization, Design of methodology, Data acquisition, Data analysis, Writing and editing, Data curation, Software. Torres, R. R.: Conceptualization, Design of methodology, Data analysis, Writing, review and editing, Supervision, Project administration, Founding acquisition. Martins, F. B.: Conceptualization, Design of methodology, Data analysis, Writing, review and editing, Supervision, Project administration, Founding acquisition. Marrafon, V. H. de. A.: Data analysis, Data curation, Software.
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Monteiro, A.F.M., Torres, R.R., Martins, F.B. et al. Climate change impacts on evapotranspiration in Brazil: a multi-model assessment. Theor Appl Climatol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04942-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04942-6