Abstract
The west side of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has shown great variability since the middle of the last century characterized by warming mainly because of the oceanic and atmospheric effects such as the disintegration of floating ice and the strength of westerly winds. Here, we used two climatic databases (reanalysis from 1979 to 2020 and surface stations from 1947 to 2020) to investigate trends in extreme air temperatures and wind components in the oceanic region between 55° S and 70° S in the west (75° W) and in the east sector (45° W) and over the AP (60° W). Non-parametric statistical trend tests and extreme value approaches are used. A set of annual, monthly, and seasonal series are fitted. The extremal index is applied to measure the degree of independence of monthly excesses over a threshold considered extreme events. Increasing trends are verified in the annual and monthly temperature and wind series. The greatest trends are observed for seasonal series from reanalysis without change-point in summer and winter. Decreasing trends are observed for maximum temperature in summer and positive trends mainly for the westerly winds over the AP. But in winter, the maximum temperature shows an increasing trend also over the AP. Most of reanalysis seasonal minimum temperature and wind components as well as maximum and minimum temperatures from stations present increasing trends with change-point but tend to stability after the breakpoints. The generalized distribution (GEV) is used to fit temperatures and westerly wind between South America (SA) and north of the AP. The 100-year return levels exceed the maximum value of the maximum temperature in Esperanza and maximum westerly winds at several grid points. Pareto and Poison distributions are applied for the maximum temperatures from stations and the 100-year return levels are not exceeded. Our findings show significant positive trends for monthly wind components near the SA in the region of the westerly winds whose changes in position influence directly the SAM, which modifies the atmospheric patterns in the South Hemisphere (SH). A predominance of seasonal warming is identified, which may impact the climate with consequences not only locally but also in other regions.
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Data availability
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/reanalysis/reanalysis.shtml
READER (British Antarctic Survey): https://www.bas.ac.uk/project/reader/
extRemes_R-2.0–8.tar.gz: R source package.
Code availability
v72i08.R: R replication code.
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Acknowledgements
The extRemes software package used in this research was initially supported by the Weather and Climate Impacts Assessment Science Program (http://www.assessment.ucar.edu), which is funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF). I would like to thank John Turner of the British Antarctic Survey and Steve Colwell, the READER data manager for supporting the database from meteorological stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. Appreciation and thanks are also given anonymous reviewer for your constructive comments and suggestions to improve the manuscript.
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The first designed the study, methodology, data, and result analysis, and wrote the manuscript. J. L. F. O. collected samples, conducted data processing, and contributed to result analysis. E. G. contributed to the analysis of the extRemes software results and corrected the manuscript. N. F. F. E. contributed to the formal analysis and reviewed the manuscript. All authors reviewed the manuscript.
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de Oliveira, M.M.F., de Oliveira, J.L.F., Gilleland, E. et al. Evaluation of trends and analysis of air temperature and wind on the Antarctic Peninsula using extreme value theory. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 3047–3070 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04753-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04753-1