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The variability of extreme temperatures and their relationship with atmospheric circulation: the contribution of applying linear and quadratic models

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Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the homogenised mean maximum (T max) and minimum (T min) temperatures. The data used in the analysis were collected at eight stations in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina (Serbia) during the 1949–2008 period. The trends obtained from the slopes of the regression lines using the least square method show 0.9 °C/60 years for T max and 1.1 °C/60 years for T min; the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to determine the statistically significant increasing trends of these two extreme parameters. In this paper, we analyse the influence of the Vangengeim–Girs classification of atmospheric circulation on the T max and T min trends in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina (Serbia) using linear and quadratic models based on the least square method. Linear stepwise regression and the forward method reveal the highest dependence of T max and T min when the W or E circulation types are included in the model. Non-linear models show a greater contribution of T max and T min at W, E and C circulation types, respectively. The correction of the variance contribution of quadratic models ranges from approximately 16 to 44 % for T max and 32 to 38 % for T min.

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Acknowledgments

The authors extend their gratitude to the colleagues from the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute in Saint Petersburg, Russia, for providing the Vangengeim–Girs classification data. We would also like to thank the colleagues from the Meteorological Observatory of the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia for their kind support in getting metadata records. This research has been funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia through Project Nos. 176020 and III 47007 “Geography of Serbia”.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climatology and Hydrology Research Centre, Faculty of Science, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia

    Stevan Savić, Lazar Lazić & Dragan Dolinaj

  2. Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić”, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Đure Jakšića 9, Belgrade, 11000, Serbia

    Boško Milovanović

  3. Center for Mathematical Research of Nonlinear Phenomena, Faculty of Science, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 4, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia

    Zorana Lužanin

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  1. Stevan Savić
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Correspondence to Stevan Savić.

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Savić, S., Milovanović, B., Lužanin, Z. et al. The variability of extreme temperatures and their relationship with atmospheric circulation: the contribution of applying linear and quadratic models. Theor Appl Climatol 121, 591–604 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1263-3

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