Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Analysis of climatic trends in climate divisions of Oklahoma, USA

  • Research
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We used monthly climatological datasets from the NOAA US Climate Divisional Database to detect long-term trends (1951–2021) in the nine climate divisions of Oklahoma, USA. We applied Hargreaves-Samani method to calculate reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and used 12-month standardized precipitation index to characterize meteorological droughts. Modified Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope non-parametric trend tests were performed to identify significant (p < 0.05) positive and negative trends in maximum, average, and minimum air temperature (Tmax, Tavg, Tmin, respectively), precipitation (P), and ETo on annual and seasonal time scales. Innovative trend analysis and least square regression were used to further support the results. Statistically significant positive trends were observed in annual Tmin in all climate divisions. Statistically significant increasing trends were also observed in Tmin and Tavg on a seasonal scale across different climate divisions whereas significant decreasing trends were observed in summer Tmax. Winter P showed statistically significant increasing trends across Oklahoma. ETo only showed significant decreasing trends in the South Central climate division on an annual basis, and in central and eastern parts of the state during summers. The rate of change in temperature ranged from −0.010 to 0.020 °C/year. The rate of change in P ranged from −0.16 to 3.16 mm/year. while ETo ranged from −0.44 to 0.42 mm/year. These trends have critical implications for agricultural management to cope with potential long-term climate impacts on agricultural production, pests and invasive species, water resources, and soil moisture.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the first author and corresponding author on reasonable request.

Code Availability

Not applicable.

References

  • Almas LK, Colette WA, Adusumilli NC (2008) Economic value of groundwater resources and irrigated agriculture in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Paper presented at Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Dalls, TX

    Google Scholar 

  • Anwar MR, Liu DL, Macadam I, Kelly G (2013) Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review. Theor Appl Climatol 113(1):225–245. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0780-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arndt D (2003). The climate of Oklahoma. Oklahoma Climatological Survey 15. https://cig.mesonet.org/climateatlas/doc60.html. Accessed 06 Aug 2023

  • Asseng S, Ewert F, Martre P, Rötter RP, Lobell DB, Cammarano D, Kimball BA, Ottman MJ, Wall GW, White JW, Reynolds MP (2015) Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nat Clim Chang 5(2):143–147

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Balcombe C (2014) Upper Red River Basin Study. U.S. Department of the Interior - Bureau of Reclamation Accessed 13 June 2022. Retrieved from https://www.usbr.gov/watersmart/bsp/docs/fy2014/UpperRedRiverBasinStudy.pdf

    Google Scholar 

  • Bartush KB, Banner J, Brown D, Lemery J, Lin X, Loeffler C, McManus G, Mullens E, Nielsen-Gammon J, Shafer M, Sorensen C, Sperry S, Wildcat D, and Ziolkowska J, (2018) Southern Great Plains. In: Reidmiller DR., Avery CW, Easterling DR, Kunkel KE, Lewis KLM, Maycock TK, Stewart BC (eds) Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Vol 2. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp 987–1035. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA4.2018

  • Battisti DS, Naylor RL (2009) Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Sci 323:240–244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benestad R (2013) Association between trends in daily rainfall percentiles and the global mean temperature. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(19) 10,802-810,810

  • Capparelli V, Franzke C, Vecchio A, Freeman MP, Watkins NW, Carbone V (2013) A spatiotemporal analysis of US station temperature trends over the last century. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(14):7427–7434

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chauhan BS, Mahajan G, Randhawa RK, Singh H, Kang MS (2014) Global warming and its possible impact on agriculture in India. Adv Agron 123:65–121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dabanlı İ, Şen Z, Yeleğen MÖ, Şişman E, Selek B, Güçlü YS (2016) Trend assessment by the innovative-sen method. Water Resour Manag 30(14):5193–5203. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1478-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dahl N, Xue M (2016) Prediction of the 14 June 2010 Oklahoma City extreme precipitation and flooding event in a multiphysics multi-initial-conditions storm-scale ensemble forecasting system. Weather Forecast 31(4):1215–1246

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dawadi S, Ahmad S (2013) Evaluating the impact of demand-side management on water resources under changing climatic conditions and increasing population. J Environ Manag 114:261–275

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • dos Santos CA, Neale CM, Mekonnen MM, Gonçalves IZ, de Oliveira G, Ruiz-Alvarez O, Safa B, Rowe CM (2022) Trends of extreme air temperature and precipitation and their impact on corn and soybean yields in Nebraska, USA. Theor Appl Climatol 147(3):1379–1399

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Easterling DR, Horton B, Jones PD, Peterson TC, Karl TR, Parker DE, Salinger MJ, Jamason P (1997) Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science 277(5324):364–367

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feng H, Liu Y (2015) Combined effects of precipitation and air temperature on soil moisture in different land covers in a humid basin. J Hydrol 531:1129–1140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garbrecht JD, Rossel FE (2002) Decade-scale precipitation increase in Great Plains at end of 20 th century. J Hydrol Eng 7(1):64–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gilbert RO (1987) Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring. John Wiley & Sons

    Google Scholar 

  • Gobiet A, Kotlarski S, Beniston M, Heinrich G, Rajczak J, Stoffel M (2014) 21st century climate change in the European Alps—a review. Sci Total Environ 493:1138–1151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guttman NB, Quayle RG (1996) A historical perspective of US climate divisions. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 1996(77):293–304

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haan CT (1977) Statistical methods in hydrology Ames. IA, University, Press/Ames

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204(1-4):182–196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hargreaves GH, Samani ZA (1985) Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. Appl Eng Agric 1(2):96–99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Higgins R, Kousky V, Xie P (2011) Extreme precipitation events in the south-central United States during May and June 2010: historical perspective, role of ENSO, and trends. J Hydrometeorol 12(5):1056–1070

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huntington TG (2006) Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: review and synthesis. J Hydrol 319(1-4):83–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hurrell J (2017) National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (eds.), Last modified 07 Nov 2017. The climate data guide: Hurrell North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index (station-based)

    Google Scholar 

  • Illston BG, Basara JB, Crawford KC (2004) Seasonal to interannual variations of soil moisture measured in Oklahoma. Int J Climatol 24(15):1883–1896

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Irmak S, Kabenge I, Skaggs KE, Mutiibwa D (2012) Trend and magnitude of changes in climate variables and reference evapotranspiration over 116-yr period in the Platte River Basin, central Nebraska–USA. J Hydrol 420:228–244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jain SK, Kumar V (2012) Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Current Science, pp 37–49

    Google Scholar 

  • Jennrich GC, Furtado JC, Basara JB, Martin ER (2020) Synoptic characteristics of 14-day extreme precipitation events across the United States. J Clim 33(15):6423–6440

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karl TR, Riebsame WE (1984) The identification of 10-to 20-year temperature and precipitation fluctuations in the contiguous United States. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 23:950–966

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall M (1975) Rank correlation methods. 2nd impression. Charles Griffin and Company Ltd, London and High Wycombe

    Google Scholar 

  • Khand K, Taghvaeian S, Ajaz A (2017) Drought and its impact on agricultural water resources in Oklahoma. Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service. Oklahoma State University Stillwater, OK, USA. Available online at https://pods.dasnr.okstate.edu/docushare/dsweb/Get/Document-10705/BAE-1533web.pdf. Accessed 08 Aug 2023

  • Kleinbaum DG, Kupper LL, Nizam A, Rosenberg ES (2013) Applied regression analysis and other multivariable methods. Cengage Learning

    Google Scholar 

  • Kukal M, Irmak S (2016a) Long-term patterns of air temperatures, daily temperature range, precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the USA Great Plains: Part I. Spatial trends. J Hydrol 542:953–977. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.06.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kukal M, Irmak S (2016b) Long-term patterns of air temperatures, daily temperature range, precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the USA Great Plains: Part II. Temporal trends. J Hydrol 542:978–1001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar S, Himanshu S, Gupta K (2012) Effect of global warming on mankind-a review. Int Res J Environ Sci 1(4):56–59

    Google Scholar 

  • Kunkel KE, Andsager K, Easterling DR (1999) Long-term trends in extreme precipitation events over the conterminous United States and Canada. J Clim 12(8):2515–2527

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laštuvka Z (2009) Climate change and its possible influence on the occurrence and importance of insect pests. Plant Prot Sci 45:S53–S62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lipiec J, Doussan C, Nosalewicz A, Kondracka K (2013) Effect of drought and heat stresses on plant growth and yield: a review. Int Agrophys 27(4):463–477

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333(6042):616–620

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mallakpour I, Villarini G (2017) Analysis of changes in the magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of heavy precipitation over the contiguous USA. Theor Appl Climatol 130(1):345–363. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1881-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martínez M, Serra C, Burgueño A, Lana X (2010) Time trends of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in Catalonia (ne Spain) for the period 1975–2004. Int J Climatol 30(2):267–290

    Google Scholar 

  • Masson-Delmotte ZVP, Pirani A, Connors SL, Pean C, Berger S, Caud N, Chen Y, Goldfarb L, Gomis MI, Huang M, Leitzell K, Lonnoy E, Matthews JBR, Maycock TK, Waterfield T, Yelekçi O, Yu R, Zhou B (2021) IPCC, 2021: Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf). Accessed 06 Jul 2022

    Google Scholar 

  • Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner GK, Edenhofer O, Stocker TF, Field CB, Ebi KL, Matschoss PR (2011) The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: a common approach across the working groups. Clim Chang 108(4):675–691

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Menne MJ, Durre I, Vose RS, Gleason BE, Houston TG (2012) An overview of the global historical climatology network-daily database. J Atmos Ocean Technol 29(7):897–910

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Myhre G, Alterskjær K, Stjern CW, Hodnebrog Ø, Marelle L, Samset BH, Sillmann J, Schaller N, Fischer E, Schulz M (2019) Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming. Sci Rep 9(1):1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nepal S, Shrestha AB (2015) Impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins: a review of the literature. Int J Water Resour Dev 31(2):201–218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls N (1997) Increased Australian wheat yield due to recent climate trends. Nature 387(6632):484–485

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oklahoma Climatological Survey (2020) Climate of Oklahoma. Retrieved from https://climate.ok.gov/index.php/site/page/climate_of_oklahoma. Accessed 14 June 2022

    Google Scholar 

  • OWRB (2012) Oklahoma Water Resources Board- Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan: Executive Report, p 172. Retrieved from https://www.owrb.ok.gov/ocwp/pdf/2012Update/OCWP%20Executive%20Rpt%20FINAL.pdf. Accessed 06 Aug 2023

  • Papalexiou SM, Montanari A (2019) Global and regional increase of precipitation extremes under global warming. Water Resour Res 55(6):4901–4914

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Patakamuri S, Das B (2019) Trendchange: innovative trend analysis and time-series change point analysis. Vienna, Austria, The R project for Statistical Computing

    Google Scholar 

  • Patakamuri S, O'Brien N (2021) Modifiedmk: modified versions of Mann Kendall and Spearman‘s rho trend tests. R package version 1.6. In

    Google Scholar 

  • Pathak P, Kalra A, Ahmad S (2017) Temperature and precipitation changes in the Midwestern United States: implications for water management. Int J Water Resour Dev 33(6):1003–1019. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2016.1238343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy JE, Laza RC, Visperas RM, Zhong X, Centeno GS, Khush GS, Cassman KG (2004) Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci 101(27):9971–9975

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pettitt AN (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. J R Stat Soc, C: Appl 28(2):126–135

    Google Scholar 

  • Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y et al (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467:43–51. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09364

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poland TM, Patel-Weynand T, Finch DM, Miniat CF, Hayes DC, Lopez VM (2021) Invasive species in forests and rangelands of the United States: a comprehensive science synthesis for the United States forest sector. Springer Nature

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Seager R, Lis N, Feldman J, Ting M, Williams AP, Nakamura J, Liu H, Henderson N (2018) Whither the 100th meridian? The once and future physical and human geography of America’s arid–humid divide. Part I: the story so far. Earth Interact 22(5):1–22

    Google Scholar 

  • Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall‘s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63(324):1379–1389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z (2012) Innovative trend analysis methodology. J Hydrol Eng 17(9):1042–1046

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z (2017) Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theor Appl Climatol 127(3-4):939–947

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shafer M, Ojima D, Antle JM, Kluck D, McPherson RA, Petersen S, Scanlon B, Sherman K (2014) Ch. 19: great plains. Climate change impacts in the United States: the third national climate assessment. 441-461. https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloads/low/NCA3_Full_Report_19_Great_Plains_LowRes.pdf. Accessed 06 Aug 2023

  • Singh A, Taghvaeian S, Mirchi A, Moriasi DN (2023) Station aridity in weather monitoring networks: evidence from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Appl Eng Agric 39(2):167–177

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skendžić S, Zovko M, Živković IP, Lešić V, Lemić D (2021) The impact of climate change on agricultural insect pests. Insects 12(5):440

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor M, Miller H (2007) IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4). Climate Change 374

  • Taghvaeian S, Fox G, Boman R, Warren J (2015) Evaluating the impact of drought on surface and groundwater dependent irrigated agriculture in western Oklahoma. Paper presented in proceedings of the ASABE/IA Irrigation Symposium- a tribute to the career of Terry Howell. Emerging Technologies for Sustainable Irrigation, Long Beach, CA, USA, 10-12 November 2015

  • Tao F, Yokozawa M, Xu Y, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z (2006) Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981–2000. Agric For Meteorol 138(1-4):82–92

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Teegavarapu RS (2012) Floods in a changing climate: extreme precipitation. Cambridge University Press

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Tian L, Quiring SM (2019) Spatial and temporal patterns of drought in Oklahoma (1901–2014). Int J Climatol 39(7):3365–3378

  • Twardosz R, Walanus A, Guzik I (2021) Warming in Europe: recent trends in annual and seasonal temperatures. Pure Appl Geophys 178(10):4021–4032. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-021-02860-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vose RS, Applequist S, Squires M, Durre I, Menne MJ, Williams CN Jr, Fenimore C, Gleason K, Arndt D (2014) Improved historical temperature and precipitation time series for US climate divisions. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 53(5):1232–1251

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webb WP (1931) The Great Plains. the University of Nebraska Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Willmott CJ, Robeson SM (1995) Climatologically aided interpolation (CAI) of terrestrial air temperature. Int J Climatol 15(2):221–229

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao C, Liu B, Piao S, Wang X, Lobell DB, Huang Y, Huang M, Yao Y, Bassu S, Ciais P, Durand JL (2017) Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. Proc Natl Acad Sci 114(35):9326–9331

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zou Z, Dong J, Menarguez MA, Xiao X, Qin Y, Doughty RB, Hooker KV, Hambright KD (2017) Continued decrease of open surface water body area in Oklahoma during 1984–2015. Sci Total Environ 595:451–460

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

This work was supported in part by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service (ARS) (Cooperative Agreement number 58-3070-0-004).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Oklahoma State University, 111 Agricultural Hall, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA

    Aseem Singh & Ali Mirchi

  2. Biological Systems Engineering, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68583, USA

    Saleh Taghvaeian

  3. Oklahoma Water Resources Center, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA

    Abubakarr Mansaray

  4. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Oklahoma State University, 371 Agricultural Hall, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA

    Phillip D. Alderman

  5. USDA-ARS Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center, 7207 W Cheyenne St., El Reno, OK, 73036, USA

    Daniel Moriasi

Authors
  1. Aseem Singh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ali Mirchi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Saleh Taghvaeian
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Abubakarr Mansaray
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Phillip D. Alderman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Daniel Moriasi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Aseem Singh under the supervision of Ali Mirchi and Saleh Taghvaeian. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Aseem Singh and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ali Mirchi.

Ethics declarations

Ethics approval

Not applicable.

Consent to participate

Not applicable.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Singh, A., Mirchi, A., Taghvaeian, S. et al. Analysis of climatic trends in climate divisions of Oklahoma, USA. Theor Appl Climatol 154, 781–795 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04581-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04581-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation