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Hydrological modeling of flow changes due to land use and land cover changes in the Ibicuí River Basin

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Abstract

The way water resources behave in the face of changes in land use are essential for managing a watershed. The Ibicuí river basin, located in the center of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, has great agricultural potential and peculiar characteristics regarding its hydrological regime. Changes in land use and land cover with the purpose of expanding economic activities in this area can generate major impacts on the flow regimes of this watershed. This study shows an analysis of the influence of land use and land cover changes on the flow regime in the Ibicuí river basin from the large-basin hydrological model (MGB-IPH), considering maps of land use history and vegetation cover in the study area. The results were used to analyze the changes in the maximum and minimum annual and monthly average flows. The efficiency of the model was evaluated by the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (between 0.636 and 0.801) for peak flows and by the Nash-Sutcliffe log (between 0.682 and 0.863) for recession flows, indicating high correlation and low volume error (\(-\)0.45 to \(-\)8.20%). The greatest change in land use was the forest coverage reduction associated with agriculture land use. As a result, an increase in the average monthly flows and in the reference flow Q90 was verified. In some sub-basins, a significant modification in the reference Q90 flow and maximum flow was verified. The Mann-Whitney test showed that the results were accurate. The results indicated that changes in forest coverage and land use have an impact in the flow regime in the Ibicuí Watershed.

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https://www.fao.org/soils-portal/data-hub/soil-maps-and-databases/faounesco-soil-map-of-the-world/en/

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Universidade Federal do Pará for providing material conditions to the development of this study.

Funding

The authors also received support from Universidade Federal do Pará.

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Author notes

  1. Anelise Nardi Hüffner, Lindemberg Lima Fernandes, Manoel José dos Santos Sena, and Katiúcia do Nascimento Adam are authors contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculdade de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, Universidade Federal do Pará, R. Augusto Corrêa, 01, Belém, 66075-110, Pará, Brazil

    Desirreé Cristine Pena Vieira Leal, Lindemberg Lima Fernandes, Manoel José dos Santos Sena & Katiúcia do Nascimento Adam

  2. Curso de Engenharia Ambiental e Sanitária, Centro Universitário Ritter dos Reis, Rua Orfanotrófio, 555, Porto Alegre, 690840-440, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    Anelise Nardi Hüffner

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  1. Desirreé Cristine Pena Vieira Leal
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  2. Anelise Nardi Hüffner
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  3. Lindemberg Lima Fernandes
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  4. Manoel José dos Santos Sena
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  5. Katiúcia do Nascimento Adam
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the conceptualization of this manuscript. Desirreé Cristine was a major contributor in writing the first version of the manuscript and performing simulations. Anelise Nardi contributed in accessing databases and performing simulations. Katiucia Adam, Lindemberg Fernandes, and Manoel Sena contributed in data analysis, in simulation, and in the supervision in the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Desirreé Cristine Pena Vieira Leal.

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Pena Vieira Leal, D.C., Hüffner, A.N., Lima Fernandes, L. et al. Hydrological modeling of flow changes due to land use and land cover changes in the Ibicuí River Basin. Theor Appl Climatol 154, 75–88 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04529-7

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