Abstract
Large-scale oceanic effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on local rainfall and streamflow variability at the catchment scale have not been well studied. This study assesses the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on rainfall and streamflow variability in Geba catchment Tigray Ethiopia. Modified Mann–Kendall and Pettit’s tests were used to generally understand the overall trends and expected abrupt changes in rainfall and streamflow. We also applied correlation, explained variance, and multiple regression methods to evaluate the linkages, performance, and strengths between the sea surface temperatures and station rainfall and streamflow records. The rainfall trend of the study site did not change significantly. However, the streamflow showed a significant change with the mixed increase or decrease trends. The abrupt changes in rainfall and streamflow are strongly linked with El Niño Southern Oscillation and La Niña episode events. Rainfall in the rainy season (July, August, and September) enhanced due to La Niña events and suppressed with El Niño episodes. The stream flow of the study catchment gets declined during strong El Niño years (e.g., 1982, 1983, 1987, 1997, and 2015) while also reach its peak during the strong La Niña years (1988, 1999, 2000, 2008, and 2011). Our finding ratified that 39% of rainfall and 38% of streamflow variabilities in the Geba catchment are explained by the combined effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole signals.
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Acknowledgements
The authors also gratefully acknowledge the Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Electricity (MoWIE) and the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia for provide us the daily hydrological and meteorological datasets of the study site. We also extend our appreciation to International Research Institute (IRI) particularly the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Climate Data Center (NOAA/NCDC) for providing us with the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data sets of the study site. Greatly appreciated the two anonymous reviewers and the editor for their valuable and constructive comments that helped to enhance the paper.
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We acknowledge the financial support by the Open Society Foundation (OSF)–Africa Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ACCAI) project hosted at Institute of Climate and Society of Mekelle University (MU-ICS) under Grant No. OR2016-30576.
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All authors collaborated in the research presented in this publication by making the following contributions: Conceptualization: Henok Shiferaw, Eyasu Yazew and Amanuel Zenebe. Data collection and analysis: Henok Shiferaw, Atkilt Girma and Kibrom Hadush. Writing, review and editing: Henok Shiferaw, Haileselassie G. Mariam, Atkilt Girma, Eyasu Yazew and Amanuel Zenebe.
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Shiferaw, H., Girma, A., Hadush, K. et al. Long-term hydroclimatic variability over the semi-arid Ethiopian highlands in relation to ENSO and IOD teleconnection signals. Theor Appl Climatol 153, 193–211 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04450-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04450-z