Abstract
Changes in summer and diurnal precipitation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in the middle of the twenty-first century were estimated by RegCM4 with a resolution of 50 km under two representative concentration pathway scenarios. ERA-Interim, CSIRO-MK3.6.0 and MPI-ESM-MR were used as the initial and lateral boundary conditions, and two observation data sets (CN05.1 and CRU) were used to evaluate the precipitation performance. RegCM4 captured the spatial characteristics of summer precipitation in the UYRB during the reference period. Compared with the two observational data sets, the three groups of downscaling results underestimated the precipitation in the eastern part of the basin by 20% and overestimated that in the west by more than 80%. In the middle of the twenty-first century, the total precipitation (TPR) in the UYRB varied significantly from east to west. The multiyear average TPR in the eastern plains was projected to significantly decrease, while it significantly increased in the western mountains. As a major contributor to the TPR in the UYRB, convective precipitation (CPR) differed between the eastern and western regions, especially at night. The TPR changes in the east (decrease) and west (increase) were projected to be strongest in the afternoon. The probability of high-intensity precipitation in the central and western areas will increase, implying a potential increase in the risk of flooding in these areas. The diametric changes in the TPR between the east and west may further exacerbate the spatial heterogeneity of water resources, resulting in large impacts to surface hydrological processes. The spatial variations in precipitation were mainly due to the variation in precipitation mechanisms between the western mountainous area and the eastern basin, while the changes in water vapour transport and atmospheric stability also played a role.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bergant K, Belda M, Halenka T (2007) Systematic errors in the simulation of European climate (1961–2000) with RegCM3 driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Int J Climatol 27(4):455–472. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1413
Bhaskaran B, Jones RG, Murphy JM, Noguer M (1996) Simulations of the Indian summer monsoon using a nested regional climate model: domain size experiments. Clim Dyn 12(9):573–587. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00216267
Brockhaus P, Lüthi D, Schär C (2008) Aspects of the diurnal cycle in a regional climate model. Meteorol Z 17(4):433–443. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0316
Caloiero T (2014) Analysis of daily rainfall concentration in New Zealand. Nat Hazards 72(2):389–404. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-1015-1
Cao LJ, Zhang Y, Shi Y (2011) Climate change effect on hydrological processes over the Yangtze River basin. Quat Int 244(2):202–210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2011.01.004
Chow KC, Tong HW, Chan JCL (2008) Water vapor sources associated with the early summer precipitation over China. Clim Dyn 30(5):497–517. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0301-6
Coscarelli R, Caloiero T (2012) Analysis of daily and monthly rainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region). J Hydrol 416-417(3):145–156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.11.047
Crook NA (1996) Sensitivity of moist convection forced by boundary layer processes to low-level thermodynamic fields. Mon Weather Rev 124(8):1767–1785. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<1767:SOMCFB>2.0.CO;2
Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137(656):553–597. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828
Deng H, Luo Y, Yao Y, Liu C (2013) Spring and summer precipitation changes from 1880 to 2011 and the future projections from CMIP5 models in the Yangtze River Basin, China. Quat Int 304:95–106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2013.03.036
Dore MHI (2005) Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: what do we know? Environ Int 31(8):1167–1181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2005.03.004
Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO (2000) Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289(5487):2068–2074. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5487.2068
Emanuel KA, Ivkovirothman M (1999) Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models. J Atmos Sci 56(11):1766–1782. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<1766:daeoac>2.0.co;2
Emanuel KA, Raymond DJ (1993) The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models. Meteorol Monogr 29(1):9–23. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-935704-13-3
Frei C, Schär C (1998) A precipitation climatology of the Alps from high-resolution rain-gauge observations. Int J Climatol 18(8):873–900. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19980630)18:8<873::AID-JOC255>3.0.CO;2-9
Gao X (2012) High resolution climate change simulation of the 21st century over East Asia by RegCM3. Chin Sci Bull 57(5):374–381
Gao X, Zhao Z, Ding Y, Huang R, Giorgi F (2003) Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model part II: climate change. Acta Meteorologica Sinica 61(1):29–38
Gao XJ, Shi Y, Song R, Giorgi F, Wang Y, Zhang D (2008) Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM. Meteorog Atmos Phys 100(1–4):73–86. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-008-0296-5
Gao XJ, Ying S, Giorgi F (2016) Comparison of convective parameterizations in RegCM4 experiments over China with CLM as the land surface model. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 9(4):246–254. https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2016.1172938
Gao X, Shi Y, Han Z, Wang M, Ww J, Dongfeng Z, Xu Y, Giorgi F (2017) Performance of RegCM4 over major river basins in China. Adv Atmos Sci 34(4):441–455. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-6179-7
Giorgi F, Anyah RO (2012) The road towards RegCM4. Clim Res 52:3–6. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01089
Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar GR (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. WMO Bull 58(3):175–183
Giorgi F, Coppola E, Solmon F, Mariotti L, Sylla MB, Bi X, Elguindi N, Diro GT, Nair V, Giuliani G, Turuncoglu UU, Cozzini S, Güttler I, O Brien TA, Tawfik AB, Shalaby A, Zakey AS, Steiner AL, Stordal F, Sloan LC, Brankovic C (2012) RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains. Clim Res 52:7–29. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01018
Gu H, Yu Z, Wang G, Wang J, Ju Q, Yang C, Fan C (2015) Impact of climate change on hydrological extremes in the Yangtze River Basin, China. Stoch Env Res Risk A 29(3):693–707. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0957-5
Guan XD, Huang JP, Rui X (2017) Changes in aridity in response to the global warming hiatus. Journal of Meteorological Research 31(01):119–127. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-017-6038-1
Guilbert J, Betts AK, Rizzo DM, Beckage B, Bomblies A (2015) Characterization of increased persistence and intensity of precipitation in the northeastern United States. Geophys Res Lett 42(6):1888–1893. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl063124
Holtslag AAM, De Bruijn EIF, Pan H (1990) A high resolution air mass transformation model for short-range weather forecasting. Mon Weather Rev 118(8):1561–1575. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<1561:ahramt>2.0.co;2
Houze RA, Medina S (2005) Turbulence as a mechanism for orographic precipitation enhancement. J Atmos Sci 62(10):3599–3623. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3555.1
Huang P, Xie S, Hu K, Huang G, Huang R (2013) Patterns of the seasonal response of tropical rainfall to global warming. Nat Geosci 6(5):357–361. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1792
Ju L, Wang H, Jiang D (2007) Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum climate over East Asia with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 248(3):376–390. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2006.12.012
Kendall M (1975) Rank correlation methods. Griffin, London, UK
Kiehl T, Hack J, Bonan B, Boville A, Briegleb P (1996) Description of the NCAR community climate model (CCM3). NCAR technical note NCAR/TN-420+STR. Boulder, Colorado: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Kunkel KE, Pielke RAJ, Changnon SA (1999) Temporal fluctuations in weather and climate extremes that cause economic and human health impacts: a review. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80(6):1077–1098. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<1077:tfiwac>2.0.co;2
Leung MYT, Qiu S, Zhou W (2018) Modulations of rising motion and moisture on summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Clim Dyn 51(11–12):4259–4269. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4247-7
Li XM, Jiang FQ, Li L, Wang GG (2011) Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation concentration index, concentration degree and concentration period in Xinjiang, China. Int J Climatol 31(11):1679–1693. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2181
Li X, Zhou W, Chen D, Li C, Song J (2014) Water vapor transport and moisture budget over Eastern China: remote forcing from the two types of El Niño. J Clim 27(23):8778–8792. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00049.1
Li XF, Zhai GQ, Gao ST, Shen XY (2015) Decadal trends of global precipitation in the recent 30 years. Atmos Sci Lett 16(1):22–26. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.514
Liu YB, Xiao JF, Ju WM, Xu K, Zhou YL, Zhao YT (2016) Recent trends in vegetation greenness in China significantly altered annual evapotranspiration and water yield. Environ Res Lett 11(9):94010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094010
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13(3):245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Marsland SJ, Haak H, Jungclaus JH, Latif M, Röske F (2003) The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Model 5(2):91–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1463-5003(02)00015-X
Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25(6):693–712. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1181
O’Gorman PA, Schneider T (2009) The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106(35):14773–14777. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907610106
Oh SG, Suh MS (2018) Changes in seasonal and diurnal precipitation types during summer over South Korea in the late twenty-first century (2081–2100) projected by the RegCM4.0 based on four RCP scenarios. Clim Dyn 51(7–8):3041–3060. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4063-5
Oh SG, Park JH, Lee SH, Suh MS (2014) Assessment of the RegCM4 over East Asia and future precipitation change adapted to the RCP scenarios. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 119(6):2913–2927. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013jd020693
Raddatz TJ, Reick CH, Knorr W, Kattge J, Roeckner E, Schnur R, Schnitzler KG, Wetzel P, Jungclaus J (2007) Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate–carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century? Clim Dyn 29(6):565–574. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0247-8
Rotstayn LD, Jeffrey SJ, Collier MA, Dravitzki SM, Hirst AC, Syktus JI, Wong KK (2012) Aerosol- and greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations. Atmos Chem Phys 12(14):6377–6404. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-6377-2012
Roy SS, Balling RC (2004) Trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in India. Int J Climatol 24(4):457–466. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.995
Shen PF, Zhang YC (2011) Numerical simunilation of diurnal variation of summer precipitation in Sichuan Basin. Plateau Meteorology 30(4):860–868 (In Chinese)
Shi Y, Wang G, Gao X (2018) Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China. Clim Dyn 51(5–6):2375–2396. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4018-x
Simmonds I, Bi D, Hope P (1999) Atmospheric water vapor flux and its association with rainfall over China in summer. J Clim 12(5):1353–1367. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1353:AWVFAI>2.0.CO;2
Song S, Bai J (2016) Increasing winter precipitation over arid Central Asia under global warming. Atmosphere 7(10):139. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos7100139
Sutcliffe JV (1987) The use of historical records in flood frequency analysis. J Hydrol 96(1):159–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(87)90150-8
Tomassini L, Jacob D (2009) Spatial analysis of trends in extreme precipitation events in high-resolution climate model results and observations for Germany. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 114(114):1192. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010652
Ueno K, Sugimoto S, Koike T, Tsutsui H, Xu X (2011) Generation processes of mesoscale convective systems following midlatitude troughs around the Sichuan Basin. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 116(D2). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013780
Wang W, Seaman NL (1997) A comparison study of convective parameterization schemes in a mesoscale model. Mon Weather Rev 125(2):252–278. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0252:ACSOCP>2.0.CO;2
Wang L, Chen W, Zhou W, Huang G (2015) Teleconnected influence of tropical Northwest Pacific Sea surface temperature on interannual variability of autumn precipitation in Southwest China. Clim Dyn 45(9):2527–2539. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2490-8
Wang J, Song Y, Wang G (2016) Causes of large Potamogeton crispus L. population increase in Xuanwu Lake. Environ Sci Pollut Res 24(6):1–8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-016-6514-7
Wu J, Gao XJ (2013) A gridded daily observation dataset over China region and comparison with the other datasets. Chin J Geophys 56(4):1102–1111 (In Chinese)
Wu J, Gao X, Giorgi F, Chen Z, Yu D (2012) Climate effects of the Three Gorges Reservoir as simulated by a high resolution double nested regional climate model. Quat Int 282:27–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2012.04.028
Wu P, Christidis N, Stott P (2013) Anthropogenic impact on Earth’s hydrological cycle. Nat Clim Chang 3(9):807–810. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1932
Wu J, Gao X, Giorgi F, Chen D (2017) Changes of effective temperature and cold/hot days in late decades over China based on a high resolution gridded observation dataset. Int J Climatol 37:788–800. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5038
Xu X, Lu C, Shi X, Ding Y (2010) Large-scale topography of China: a factor for the seasonal progression of the Meiyu rainband? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 115(D2). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012444
Yang P, Xia J, Zhang Y, Hong S (2017) Temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in Northwest China during 1960–2013. Atmos Res 183:283–295. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.09.014
Yeşilırmak E, Atatanır L (2016) Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation concentration in western Turkey. Nat Hazards 81(1):687–704. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2102-2
Zeng X, Zhao M, Dickinson RE (1998) Intercomparison of bulk aerodynamic algorithms for the computation of sea surface fluxes using TOGA COARE and TAO data. J Clim 11(10):2628–2644. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2628:IOBAAF>2.0.CO;2
Zhang D, Gao X, Ou Y, Dong W (2008) Simulation of present climate over East Asia by a regional climate model. J Trop Meteorol 14(1):19–23
Zhang YT, Guan XD, Yu HP, Xie YK, Jin HC (2017) Contributions of radiative factors to enhanced dryland warming over East Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 122(15):7723–7736. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026506
Zhou T, Yu R (2005) Atmospheric water vapor transport associated with typical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 110(D8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005413
Zhou B, Xu Y, Wu J, Dong S, Shi Y (2016) Changes in temperature and precipitation extreme indices over China: analysis of a high-resolution grid dataset. Int J Climatol 36(3):1051–1066. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4400
Zittis G, Hadjinicolaou P, Fnais M, Lelieveld J (2016) Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Reg Environ Chang 16(7):1863–1876. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0753-2
Acknowledgements
The authors greatly appreciate the data availability and service provided by the RegCM, ERA-Interim science team. The authors also appreciate the support of Dr. Ying Shi (Researcher, China Meteorological Administration, China) for providing the regional climate models and observational data sets used in this study. High-performance computing resources were provided by the national super-computer in Tianjin, China. Prof. Yanping Li and Dr. Zhenhua Li gratefully acknowledge the support from the Global Institute of Water Security at the University of Saskatchewan. The ERA-interim data used in this study were obtained from http://clima-dods.ictp.it/Data. The observation data used in this study were obtained from http://data.cma.cn/data.
Funding
This study was jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program (No. 2017YFC0404701, No.2018YFC1508200 and No. 2016YFA0601503), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51779271 and No. 51569003) and the Innovation Project of Guangxi Graduate Education (YCBZ2018023).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
ESM 1
(DOCX 7578 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Huang, Y., Xiao, W., Hou, G. et al. Changes in seasonal and diurnal precipitation types during summer over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin in the middle twenty-first century (2020–2050) as projected by RegCM4 forced by two CMIP5 global climate models. Theor Appl Climatol 142, 1055–1070 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03364-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03364-4