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Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

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Abstract

According to observed twentieth century temperature trends and twenty-first century climate model projections, the region that encompasses the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is identified as a climate change hot spot. We extend previous studies by a comprehensive climatology of heat waves in the EMME based on regional climate model simulations for the recent past and the end of the twenty-first century. A percentile-based definition of heat waves is used to account for local climatic conditions. Spatial patterns of several heat wave properties are assessed and associated with atmospheric circulation regimes over specific locations. To cover a range of possible future climates, we use three SRES emission scenarios. According to our results, all indices that characterize heat wave severity will strongly increase compared with the control period of 1961–1990. The northern part of the EMME could be exposed to increased heat wave amplitudes by 6–10 °C, and the southern part may experience 2–3 months more combined hot days and tropical nights. Heat wave peak temperatures will be higher due to the overall mean warming as well as stronger summer anticyclonic conditions. The projected changes will affect human health and the environment in multiple ways and call for impact studies to support the development of adaptation strategies.

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Notes

  1. http://eca.knmi.nl/dailydata/index.php.

  2. http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/.

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Acknowledgments

Material produced using PRECIS software provided by the Hadley Centre at the UK Met Office. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013)/ERC Grant Agreement No. 226144 (C8 Project). We also acknowledge the data providers in the ECA&D project and the three anonymous reviewers for their fruitful comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Energy Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121, Nicosia, Cyprus

    George Zittis, Panos Hadjinicolaou & Jos Lelieveld

  2. College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, 11451, Saudi Arabia

    Mohammed Fnais

  3. Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Plank Institute for Chemistry, 1 Hahn-Meitner-Weg Street, 55128, Mainz, Germany

    Jos Lelieveld

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  1. George Zittis
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Correspondence to George Zittis.

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Zittis, G., Hadjinicolaou, P., Fnais, M. et al. Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Reg Environ Change 16, 1863–1876 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0753-2

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