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Hindcast of extreme rainfall with high-resolution WRF: model ability and effect of physical schemes

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Abstract

An extreme rainfall event that occurred in Beijing city during 19–21 July 2016 was investigated. The analysis indicated that the main pattern at 500 hPa was a “two-ridges-one-trough” pattern; meanwhile, the cyclonic circulation at 850 hPa controlled the Beijing area and the southerly wind brought wet air to Beijing, causing abundant water vapor during this event. Hindcast experiments were carried out using the NCAR’s Weather Research and Forecasting model with the NCEP’s Global Forecast System datasets as the initial and boundary conditions. We found that the model ensemble could reproduce the spatial distribution of the rainfall, and different model physical parameterization scheme combinations led to differing simulation skill. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that the model performed differently in different periods of the rainfall event. The water vapor supply, divergence, rain mixing ratio, and cloud mixing ratio were the main factors that influenced the model’s performance.

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Acknowledgments

We express thanks to the Editor and reviewers.

Funding

This research was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41421004), the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFA0603802), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41730964).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Li Xiangrui, Fan Ke & Yu Entao

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Li Xiangrui & Fan Ke

  3. Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610225, China

    Yu Entao

Authors
  1. Li Xiangrui
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  2. Fan Ke
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  3. Yu Entao
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Correspondence to Fan Ke.

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Xiangrui, L., Ke, F. & Entao, Y. Hindcast of extreme rainfall with high-resolution WRF: model ability and effect of physical schemes. Theor Appl Climatol 139, 639–658 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02945-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02945-2

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