Abstract
From the perspective of duty forecaster, a warm-sector rainstorm process occurred in early summer in Hunan was examined and the method to improve the accuracy was proposed. Based on the conventional observation data, NCEP reanalysis data and FY-2G satellite TBB data, the prediction deviation and its causes are analyzed from the large-scale background and environmental field conditions, and the sensitivity test is carried out using WRF model. The results show that: (1) the process occurred under the circulation background of the subtropical high stretching to the West and lifting to the north, the southwest vortex and the middle and low-level shear moving to the east and pressing to the south, the establishment of the southwest jet and the interaction of the surface cold air. The rainstorm occurred in the warm area on 30 April, with a large prediction bias; On the 1 May, there was cold air, and the southward speed was faster than expected, so the falling area error was also large. (2) There are great differences in the numerical model prediction of heavy rainfall, and the predictability is low. The thermal factor and water vapor factor have little effect on the indication of heavy rainfall, and the dynamic factor is the key. (3) The sensitivity test of WRF model can better predict this process, and it is of reference significance for this type of precipitation forecast in the future.
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Acknowledgements
The paper is funded by the following project: China Meteorological Administration Forecaster Special Project (CMAYBY2020-085); Key Fields Research and Development Project of Hunan Provincial Department of Science and Technology (2019SK2161); Key Projects of Hunan Meteorological Bureau (XQKJ22A004); Hunan Business Capacity Building (NLJS14); Hunan Meteorological Bureau Science and Technology Research Project (XQKJ22B005).
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Cai, J., Liu, H., Yin, Z., Fu, W., Hu, Y. (2023). Deviation and Numerical Simulation of Rainfall Forecast in a Warm Sector of Hunan Province. In: Yuan, C., Huang, S., Wang, X., Chen, Z. (eds) Proceedings of 4th International Conference on Resources and Environmental Research—ICRER 2022. ICRER 2022. Environmental Science and Engineering. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-31808-5_5
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