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Climatology and trend analysis of extreme precipitation in subregions of Northeast Brazil

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Abstract

The present paper aims of computing climatology and trend analysis of occurrence and intensity of extreme events of precipitation in subregions of Northeast Brazil (NEB). We used daily rainfall data of 148 rain gauges collected from the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency during 1972 to 2002 and used quantiles technique in order to select rainfall events. Defining heavy rainfall events as those when at least one rain gauge recorded rainfall above the 95th percentile, normal rainfall was between the 45th and 55th percentiles, and weak rainfall events were under the 5th percentile. The Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was used to calculate the linear trend of the quantity and intensity of rainfall events. The NEB was divided in five subregions using the cluster analysis based on Euclidean distance and Ward’s method: Northern coast, Northern semiarid, Northwest, Southern semiarid, and Southern coast. The results suggest that the subregions are less influenced by El Niño and La Niña, and dry areas have higher variability, with the greatest number of intense events.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) for the doctoral scholarship of the first author and P. T. Oliveira and the Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) for daily rainfall data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departament of Atmospheric and Climatic Sciences, Graduate Program in Climatic Sciences, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Campus Universitário Lagoa nova, caixa postal 1524, Natal, RN, CEP: 59078-970, Brazil

    P. T. Oliveira, C. M. Santos e Silva & K. C. Lima

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  1. P. T. Oliveira
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  2. C. M. Santos e Silva
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  3. K. C. Lima
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Correspondence to P. T. Oliveira.

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Oliveira, P.T., Santos e Silva, C.M. & Lima, K.C. Climatology and trend analysis of extreme precipitation in subregions of Northeast Brazil. Theor Appl Climatol 130, 77–90 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1865-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1865-z

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