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Assessment of precipitation variability and uncertainty of stream flow in the Hindu Kush Himalayan and Karakoram River basins of Pakistan

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Abstract

The agricultural production system and hydropower production of Pakistan is largely dependent on melting water from the Hindu Kush Himalayan and the Karakoram River basins. Regardless of such significant prominence, a complete evaluation of the prevailing state of hydro-climatic variables is missing. In this context, we examine the precipitation variability and uncertainty of river flows based on diversity indexes and Shannon information entropy theory. The results indicate that the Shannon diversity index presents a clear depiction of precipitation variability on all metrological stations as compared to the Simpson diversity index. The maximum precipitation variability was found at Chilas station as compared to Hunza, Bunji and Gilgit stations. The results also show that the diversity indexes are highly, negatively correlated with standard deviation, and the amount of precipitation is less than 50 mm (dry months). At the decadal scale, the Hunza and Astore stations show higher precipitation evenness as compared to the Skardu, Bunji and Gilgit stations. The uncertainty analysis shows higher entropy value E D  = 90% for Indus River gauged at Mangla station. The higher entropy means the greater the chaos of the variables and the lower their certainty. The analysis exhibited that the rivers with high stream flow variability also show low entropy of its distribution and therefore higher stream flow concentration in the annual cycle.

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Acknowledgements

This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (nos. 51579044, 41071053, and 51479032), the Specialized Research Fund for Innovative Talents of Harbin (Excellent Academic Leader) (no. 2013RFXXJ001), and the Science and Technology Program of Water Conservancy of Heilongjiang Province (nos. 201319, 201501, and 201503).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, China

    Muhammad Abrar Faiz, Dong Liu, Qiang Fu, Shehakk Muneer, Muhammad Imran Khan, Tianxiao Li & Song Cui

  2. Key Laboratory of Effective Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources of Ministry of Agriculture, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, China

    Dong Liu

  3. Heilongjiang Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of Grain Production Capacity Improvement, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, China

    Dong Liu

  4. Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture of Ordinary University in Heilongjiang Province, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, China

    Dong Liu

  5. Department of Hydrology and Water Management, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland

    Dariusz Wrzesiński

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  1. Muhammad Abrar Faiz
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  2. Dong Liu
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  3. Qiang Fu
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  4. Dariusz Wrzesiński
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  5. Shehakk Muneer
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  6. Muhammad Imran Khan
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  7. Tianxiao Li
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  8. Song Cui
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Correspondence to Dong Liu or Qiang Fu.

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Responsible Editor: A.-P. Dimri.

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Faiz, M.A., Liu, D., Fu, Q. et al. Assessment of precipitation variability and uncertainty of stream flow in the Hindu Kush Himalayan and Karakoram River basins of Pakistan. Meteorol Atmos Phys 131, 127–136 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-017-0553-6

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