The association between weather and crime in a township setting in South Africa

Abstract

The association between various meteorological parameters and crime is well-established in developed contexts. In contrast in this study, we investigated the association between three weather parameters (temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) and three categories of crime in the developing township of Khayelitsha, in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. Distributed lag non-linear modelling was used to identify temporal relationships between temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, and violent, property and sexual crime over a 10-year period (2006–2016). We found hot days (defined as $\ge$ 25 °C) increased the cumulative relative risk of violent crime by up to 32% but were also found to be associated with a lagged increase in violent crime for at least a week thereafter. On very cold days (defined as $\le 7^\circ \mathrm{C}$), the cumulative relative risk of property crime increased by up to 50% whereas on very rainy days (defined as $\ge 20\mathrm{mm}$) the risk of property crime surprisingly increased by 40%. These findings provide some additional evidence for the relationship between the atmospheric environment and human behaviour in a developing context.