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Phenological models to predict the main flowering phases of olive (Olea europaea L.) along a latitudinal and longitudinal gradient across the Mediterranean region

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Abstract

The aim of the present study was to develop pheno-meteorological models to explain and forecast the main olive flowering phenological phases within the Mediterranean basin, across a latitudinal and longitudinal gradient that includes Tunisia, Spain, and Italy. To analyze the aerobiological sampling points, study periods from 13 years (1999–2011) to 19 years (1993–2011) were used. The forecasting models were constructed using partial least-squares regression, considering both the flowering start and full-flowering dates as dependent variables. The percentages of variance explained by the full-flowering models (mean 84 %) were greater than those explained by the flowering start models (mean 77 %). Moreover, given the time lag from the North African areas to the central Mediterranean areas in the main olive flowering dates, the regional full-flowering predictive models are proposed as the most useful to improve the knowledge of the influence of climate on the olive tree floral phenology. The meteorological parameters related to the previous autumn and both the winter and the spring seasons, and above all the temperatures, regulate the reproductive phenology of olive trees in the Mediterranean area. The mean anticipation of flowering start and full flowering for the future period from 2081 to 2100 was estimated at 10 and 12 days, respectively. One question can be raised: Will the olive trees located in the warmest areas be northward displaced or will they be able to adapt their physiology in response to the higher temperatures? The present study can be considered as an approach to design more detailed future bioclimate research.

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Acknowledgments

F. Aguilera is grateful to the Fundación Ramón Areces (Madrid, Spain) for a Postdoctoral Grant. The authors are grateful to the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET), the Italian National Meteorological and Climatological Center (CNMCA), and the National Institute of Meteorology of Tunisia (NIM) for providing the meteorological data. Moreover, the authors wish to thank the suggestions provided by Herminia García-Mozo and Rosa Pérez-Badia.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Perugia, Borgo XX Giugno 74, 06121, Perugia, Italy

    Fátima Aguilera, Marco Fornaciari, Tommaso Bonofiglio & Fabio Orlandi

  2. Department of Animal Biology, Plant Biology and Ecology, University of Jaén, Agrifood Campus of International Excellence (CeiA3), Campus of the Lagunillas s/n, 23071, Jaén, Spain

    Luis Ruiz-Valenzuela

  3. Department of Botany, Ecology and Plant Physiology, University of Córdoba, Agrifood Campus of International Excellence (CeiA3), Campus of Rabanales, 14071, Córdoba, Spain

    Carmen Galán

  4. Institut de l’Olivier, BP 208, 1082, Tunis, Tunisia

    Monji Msallem & Ali Ben Dhiab

  5. Department of Botany, University of Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva, 18071, Granada, Spain

    Consuelo Díaz-de la Guardia

  6. Department of Plant Biology, University of Málaga, Campus of Teatinos, 29071, Málaga, Spain

    María del Mar Trigo

Authors
  1. Fátima Aguilera
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  2. Marco Fornaciari
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  3. Luis Ruiz-Valenzuela
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  4. Carmen Galán
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  5. Monji Msallem
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  6. Ali Ben Dhiab
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  7. Consuelo Díaz-de la Guardia
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  8. María del Mar Trigo
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  9. Tommaso Bonofiglio
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  10. Fabio Orlandi
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Correspondence to Fátima Aguilera.

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Aguilera, F., Fornaciari, M., Ruiz-Valenzuela, L. et al. Phenological models to predict the main flowering phases of olive (Olea europaea L.) along a latitudinal and longitudinal gradient across the Mediterranean region. Int J Biometeorol 59, 629–641 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0876-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0876-7

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