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Development of radiation and temperature-based empirical models for accurate daily reference evapotranspiration estimation in Iraq

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Abstract

Reliable estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETo), an essential component of optimal irrigation management, is challenging in many regions due to its complex dependence on meteorological factors. Alternative empirical models, often used to estimate ETo considering data limitations, provide highly unreliable estimates for Iraq. This study aimed to formulate simpler empirical models for accurate ETo estimation with fewer variables in different climate regions of Iraq. The metaheuristic Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) was used to finetune the coefficients of the nonlinear least square fitting regression (NLLSF) model during development. Two simpler models were developed based on (1) only mean air temperature (T) (NLLSF-T) and (2) solar radiation and T (NLLSF-R) as inputs. The performance of the models was validated using historical ground observations (2012–2021), and the ETo was estimated using the Penman–Monteith method from the reanalyzed (ERA5) datasets (1959–2021). The models' spatial, seasonal, and temporal performance in estimating daily ETo was rigorously evaluated using multiple statistical metrics and visual presentations. The Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of the NLLSF-T model were 0.95 and 0.30, respectively, compared to 0.75 and 0.40 for Kharrufa, the best-performing temperature-based models in Iraq. Similarly, NLLSF-R improved the KGE from 0.78 to 0.97 in KGE and NRMSE from 0.44 to 0.22 compared to Caprio, the best-performing radiation-based model in Iraq. The spatial assessment revealed both the models' excellent performance over most of Iraq, except in the far north, indicating their suitability in estimating ETo in arid and semi-arid regions.

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R software, R.3.4, and MATLAB were used for writing the code that can be provided upon request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the Iraqi Agrometeorological Centre (IAC) / Ministry of Agriculture and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for providing the IAC and ERA5 climate datasets.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310, Johor Bahru, Malaysia

    Alaa A. Jasim Al-Hasani & Shamsuddin Shahid

  2. Department of Agrometeorological Applications and Climate Change, Iraqi Agrometeorological Centre, Ministry of Agriculture, Baghdad, Iraq

    Alaa A. Jasim Al-Hasani

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  1. Alaa A. Jasim Al-Hasani
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Contributions

Both authors contributed equally to the study’s conception and design. Alaa A. Jasim did data curation, conceptualization, wrote the original draft, review, editing, visualization, and software. Shamsuddin Shahid did conceptualization, programming code, writing, review, editing, and supervision.

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Correspondence to Alaa A. Jasim Al-Hasani or Shamsuddin Shahid.

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Al-Hasani, A.A.J., Shahid, S. Development of radiation and temperature-based empirical models for accurate daily reference evapotranspiration estimation in Iraq. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-024-02736-w

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-024-02736-w

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