Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Diverging monthly rainfall trends in south peninsular India and their association with global climate indices

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

With the frequent recurrence of hydroclimatic hazards, such as rainfall-induced floods and landslides, it is essential to look at the spatio-temporal evolution of rainfall trends and teleconnections of regional rainfall with global climatic indices. The present study is carried out in two climatologically contrasting terrains, the humid regions in the western side of South-Peninsular India (SPI-W) and semi-arid to arid regions in the eastern side of South-Peninsular India (SPI-E). Trends in the rainfall were studied over a long-term (1901–2020) gridded rainfall data, and change points were detected using the Pettitt's test. An expanding-sliding window trend analysis based on Kendall's Taub was carried out to decode the time evolution of rainfall trends and to differentiate consistent gradual monotonic trends from step changes. Two distinct change points were observed in the rainfall, the first in the 1960s and second in 1990s. SPI-E manifested a strong positive trend in the monsoon rainfall after 1990's while SPI-W demonstrated a weakening in rainfall after 1960's. The regionally diverse trends during the recent epochs are evaluated along with IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) and it was observed that there is a significant increase in co-occurrence of positive rainfall anomaly, positive IOD and positive ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) events after 1990. Increase in positive IOD events could be associated with the changes in the regional rainfall during these recent epochs. The trends in monthly and annual rainfall showed high sensitivity to data periods and data lengths, highlighting the need to perform such comprehensive analysis for the planning of reservoir operations, water management and agricultural activities.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ashok K, Guan Z, Saji NH, Yamagata T (2001) Impact of the indian ocean dipole on the relationship between Indian monsoon rainfall dand ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 28:4499–4502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnosky AD, Kraatz BP (2007) The role of climatic change in the evolution of mammals. Bioscience. 57(6):523–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brutsaert W (2008) Long-term groundwater storage trends estimated from streamflow records: climatic perspective. Water Resour Res 44:W02409. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006518

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burkey, Jeff. May 2006. A non-parametric monotonic trend test computing Mann-Kendall Tau, Tau-b, and Sen’s Slope written in Mathworks-MATLAB implemented using matrix rotations. King County, Department of Natural Resources and Parks, Science and Technical Services section. Seattle, Washington. USA.

  • Cook BI, Shukla SP, Puma MJ, Nazarenko LS (2015) Irrigation as an historical climate forcing. Climate Dynamics 44(5–6):1715–1730. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2204-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dash SK, Kulkarni MA, Mohanty UC, Prasad K (2009) Changes in the characteristics of rain events in India. J Geophysics Res 114:D10109. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010572

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Demaree GR, Nicolis C (1990) Onset of Sahelian drought viewed as a fluctuation-induced transition. Q J R Meteorological Soc 116:221–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deser C, Phillips AS, Alexander MA (2010) Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited. Geophys Res Lett 37(10):1–6. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043321

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil S (2003) The Indian monsoon and its variability. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 31(1):429–467

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ghosh S, Luniya V, Gupta A (2009) Trend analysis of Indian summer monsoon rainfall at different spatial scale. Atmos Sci Lett 10:285–290

    Google Scholar 

  • Haddad ZS, Meagher JP, Adler RF, Smith EA, Im E, and Durden SL (2004). Global variability of precipitation according to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 109(D17).

  • Hrudya PH, Varikoden H, Vishnu R (2021) A review on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, variability and its association with ENSO and IOD. Meteorol Atmos Phys 133(1):1–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Islam T, Rico-Ramirez MA, Han D, Srivastava PK (2012) A joss-waldvogel disdrometer derived rainfall estimation study by collocated tipping bucket and rapid response rain gauges. Atmos Sci Lett 13:139–150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jagannathan P, Parthasarathy B (1973) Trends and periodicities of rainfall over India. Mon Weather Rev 101:371–375

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jin Q, Wang C (2017) A revival of Indian summer monsoon rainfall since 2002. Nat Clim Chang 7(8):587–594

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joseph S, Sahai AK, Chattopadhyay R, Goswami BN (2011) Can El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events modulate intraseasonal oscillations of Indian summer monsoon. J Geophys Res 116:D20123. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall M (1975) Rank Correlation Methods. Charles Griffin, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiely G, Albertson JD, Parlange MB (1998) Recent trends in diurnal variation of precipitation at Valentia on the west coast of Ireland. J Hydrol 207(3–4):270–279. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00143-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kite G (1989) Use of time series analysis to detect climatic change. J Hydrol 111(1–4):259–279. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(89)90264-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koteswaram P, Alvi SMA (1969) Secular trends and periodicities in rainfall at west coast stations in India. Curr Sci 38:229–231

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurthy V, Kinter JL (2002) Indian monsoon and its relation to global climate variability. Rodo X (ed), Springer-Verlag, New York

  • Krishnaswami J, Vaidyanathan S, Rajagopalan B, Bonnel M, Sankaran M, Bhalla RS, Badiger S (2015) Non-stationary and non-linear infuence of ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole on Indian summer monsoon rainfall and extreme rain events. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2288-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mathew MM, Sreelash K, Mathew M, Arulbalaji P, Padmalal D (2021) Spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and its effect on hydrological regime in a tropical monsoon-dominated domain of Western Ghats. India J Hydrol Reg Stud 36:100861

    Google Scholar 

  • McCabe GJ, Wolock DM (2002) A step increases in streamflow in the conterminous United States. Geophys Res Lett 29(24):2185. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015999

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mohan P, Srinivas C, Yesubabu V, Baskaran R, Venkatraman B (2018) Simulation of a heavy rainfall event over Chennai in Southeast India using WRF: Sensitivity to microphysics parameterization. Atmos Res 210:83–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.04.005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mondal A, Mujumdar PP (2015) Modeling non-stationarity in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. J Hydrol 521:217–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.071

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mooley DA, Parthasarathy B (1984) Fluctuations in All-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871–1978. Clim Change 6:287–301. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00142477

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nair PJ, Chakraborty A, Varikoden H, Francis PA, Kuttipurath J (2018) The local and global climate forcings induced inhomogeneity of Indian rainfall. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24021-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nair A, Nair VG, Nair KS (2021) The role of North West Equatorial Indian Ocean in modulating the variability of southwest monsoon rainfall over Kerala in a climate change perspective. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 146(1):139–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pant GB, Hingane LS (1988) Climatic changes in and around the Rajasthan desert during the 20th century. J Climatol 8(4):391–401. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370080406

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parthasarathy B. (1984). Inter-annual and long-term variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall'. Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences (Earth Planetary Sciences) 93: 371–385.

  • Patil N, Venkataraman C, Muduchuru K, Ghosh S, and Mondal A (2018). Disentangling sea-surface temperature and anthropogenic aerosol influences on recent trends in South Asian monsoon rainfall. Climate Dynamics.

  • Paul S, Ghosh S, Oglesby R, Pathak A, Chandrasekharan A (2016) Weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall due to changes in land use land cover. Sci Rep 6:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep32177

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Pettitt AN (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change point problem. Appl Stat 28(2):126–135. https://doi.org/10.2307/2346729

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Praveen B, Talukdar S, Shahfahad M, Mondal S, Sharma J, Islam P, Rahman A (2020) Analyzing trend and forecasting of rainfall changes in India using non-parametrical and machine learning approaches. Sci Rep 10:10342. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67228-7

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Radziejewski M, Kundzewicz ZW (2004) Detectability of changes in hydrological records. Hydrol Sci J 49(1):39–51. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.49.1.39.54002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramachandra TV, Vinay S, Bharath HA (2016) Environmental flow assessment in a lotic ecosystem of central western ghats. India Hydrol Current Res 7:248. https://doi.org/10.4172/2157-7587.10002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ropelewski CF, Jones PD (1987) An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation Index. Mon Weather Rev 115:2161–2165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roxy MK (2017) Land warming revives monsoon. Nat Clim Chang 7(8):549–550

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roxy MK, Ritika K, Terray P, Murtugudde R, Ashok K, Goswami BN (2015) Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land–sea thermal gradient. Nat Commun 6(7423):1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saini A, Sahu N, Kumar P, Nayak S, Duan W, Avtar R, Behera S (2020) Advanced rainfall trend analysis of 117 years over west coast plain and hill agro-climatic region of India. Atmosphere 11(11):1225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saji NH, Yamagata TJCR (2003) Possible impacts of Indian Ocean dipole mode events on global climate. Climate Res 25(2):151–169

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scalzitti J, Strong C, Kochanski A (2016) Climate change impact on the roles of temperature and precipitation in western U. S. snowpack variability. Geophys Res Lett 43(10):5361–5369. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068798

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shukla SP, Puma MJ, Cook BI (2014) The response of the south Asian summer monsoon circulation to intensified irrigation in global climate model simulations. Clim Dyn 42(1–2):21–36. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1786-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sneyers, S. (1990). On the statistical analysis of series of observations; Technical note no. 143, WMO No. 725 415. Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.

  • Sudheer K.P, Bhallamudi SM, Narasimhan B, Thomas J, Bindhu, VM, Vema V, Kurian C, 2019. Role of dams on the floods of August 2018 in Periyar River Basin, Kerala. Current Sci. 116 (5), 780–794. https://doi.org/10.18520/cs/v116/i5/780-794

  • Van Rooy, M. P. (1965). A rainfall anomally index independent of time and space, notos.43–48

  • Varikoden H, Revadekar JV, Kuttippurath J, Babu CA (2019) Contrasting trends in southwest monsoon rainfall over the Western Ghats region of India. Clim Dyn 52(7):4557–4566

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu Y, Xu Y, Wang Y, Wu L, Li G, Song S (2016) Spatial and temporal trends of reference crop evapotranspiration and its influential variables in Yangtze River Delta, eastern China. Theoret Appl Climatol 130(3–4):1–14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1928-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yeh PJ-F, Wu C (2018) Recent acceleration of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle in the U.S Midwest. J Geophys Res Atmospheres 123:2993–3008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrol Process 16:1807–1929. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1095

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Aguilar E, Sensoy S, Melkonyan H, Semawi M (2005) Trends in middle east climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. J Geophys Res Atmosphere 110(D22):3159–3172. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou T, Yu R, Li H, Wang B (2008) Ocean forcing to changes in global monsoon precipitation over the recent half-century. J Clim 21(15):3833–3852. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2067.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the Director, National Centre for Earth Science Studies (NCESS), Thiruvananthapuram, for his encouragement and support. The sources of DMI and SOI indexes from Physical Science Laboratory (PSL) is duly acknowledged. The rainfall data sources – National Data Centre, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune is also duly acknowledged. We also thank the anonymous reviewers for their suggestions and comments, which helped in improving this manuscript.

Funding

The authors declare that no funding has been received in connection with the work carried out in this manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India

    Micky Mathew, K. Sreelash, Amala Anie Jacob, Merin Mariam Mathew & D. Padmalal

  2. School of Environmental Studies, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kochi, India

    Micky Mathew

Authors
  1. Micky Mathew
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. K. Sreelash
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Amala Anie Jacob
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Merin Mariam Mathew
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. D. Padmalal
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to K. Sreelash.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare that are relevant to the content of this article.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Mathew, M., Sreelash, K., Jacob, A.A. et al. Diverging monthly rainfall trends in south peninsular India and their association with global climate indices. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 37, 27–48 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02272-5

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02272-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation