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Response of west pacific subtropical high to northern hemispheric warming: insights from paleo climate models

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Abstract

The present study investigates the response of west Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) to northern hemispheric warming due to natural and anthropogenic forcings. We carried out the analysis using a suite of climate model simulations for the mid-Holocene conditions based on the Paleoclimate Modeling Inter-comparison Project-3 (PMIP3) and quadrupled CO2 simulations based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5), representatives of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Both sets of simulations depict northern hemispheric warming and westward shift of WPSH during boreal summer. We found that the northern hemispheric warming increases the seasonal precipitation over Africa, central India and central-eastern Himalayas in the mid-Holocene and quadrupled CO2 climate, by causing northward shift of the ITCZ and enhanced moisture flux convergence. Enhanced condensational heating associated with precipitation increase over central India and eastern Himalaya, in both the climates, not only reinforces the South Asian High (SAH) in the upper-troposphere but also strengthens the WPSH and promotes its westward extension. Additionally, mid-tropospheric condensational heating over parts of northern Africa modulates the near-equatorial east–west circulation, induces anti-cyclonic circulation over equatorial Indian Ocean and Maritime continent and fosters westward extension of WPSH during boreal summer in both the climate. In short, precipitation changes induced by northern hemispheric warming modulates equatorial and subtropical east–west circulations and play a vital role in the longitudinal variations of WPSH under northern hemispheric warming climate. In a climate with strong northern hemispheric surface warming, we also noted a minimal role of warm pool SST in the westward extension of WPSH.

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Data availability

The datasets in the current study are available from https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/.

Code availability

Codes used for plotting and calculations are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM, India), for the support to carry out this research work. IITM is an autonomous research Institute, fully funded by Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Govt. of India. The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme for making the CMIP5/PMIP3 datasets available for research, and thank the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving and providing access to the CMIP5/PMIP3 datasets. Authors also acknowledge the Climate Data Operators software (CDO; https ://code.zmaw.de/proje cts/cdo/), and the Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS; http://cola.gmu.edu/grads/grads.php) which were extensively used throughout this analysis. Authors thank the Editor and four anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.

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  1. Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pashan, Pune, 411008, India

    P. Priya, Milind Mujumdar & R. Krishnan

  2. Climate Research and Services, India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Shivajinagar, Pune, 411005, India

    S. D. Sanap

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All Authors contributed to the study conception and design. PP came up with an idea, and carried out data collection and analysis. PP, SDS and MM wrote the initial manuscript. All authors PP, SDS, MM, and RK contributed to interpreting results and improved the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Priya, P., Mujumdar, M., Sanap, S.D. et al. Response of west pacific subtropical high to northern hemispheric warming: insights from paleo climate models. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07194-2

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