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Impact of the winter Arctic sea ice anomaly on the following summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific

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Abstract

This study examines the impact of the winter Arctic sea ice concentration (ASIC) anomaly on the succedent summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and provides a new insight into the underlying physical mechanisms. There is a significant time-lagged relation between winter ASIC anomalies over Greenland-Barents-Kara (GBK) seas and the following summer TCGF over the southeastern part of the WNP. This delayed association is attributable to large-scale circulation anomalies and the air-sea interaction processes over the North Pacific induced by the winter ASIC anomalies. Specifically, a higher winter ASIC over the GBK seas induces an atmospheric wave train that propagates southeastward to the North Pacific. The associated cyclonic anomaly over the mid-latitude North Pacific is accompanied by southwesterly wind anomalies over the subtropics and results in sea surface temperature (SST) warming by reducing upward surface heat fluxes. This SST warming is maintained and further extends southward to the tropical Pacific in the following summer via a wind-evaporation-SST feedback, which in turn forces overlying atmospheric circulation via a Gill-type atmospheric response, including a pair of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the low- and upper-level troposphere, respectively, over the WNP. These atmospheric anomalies favor TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP by decreasing the vertical wind shear and increasing the convection, low-level vorticity and humidity. The above processes apply to the years when lower ASIC winters are followed by decreased TC genesis over the southeastern part of the WNP except for opposite signs of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies. This study suggests that the winter ASIC anomaly over the GBK seas is a potential predictor for the prediction of the WNP TCGF in the following summer.

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Data availability

The monthly mean JRA-55 reanalysis data are obtained from https://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html. The monthly mean NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data are derived from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html. The monthly mean ASIC data are obtained from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst. The monthly OLR data are obtained from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.interp_OLR.html. The monthly mean SST data are derived from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/. The TC best-track data are obtained from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/index.php.

Code availability (software application or custom code)

All codes used in this study are available from the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

We thank three anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions, which helped to improve the paper. We are grateful to Dr. Sen Zhao, Prof. Jianping Li and Dr. Yanjie Li making the Rossby wave tracing code readily available.

Funding

This study was supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 42175039, 41961144025, 41875117 and 42175050), and the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Shangfeng Chen, Wen Chen, Liang Wu, Hasi Aru & Jingliang Huangfu

  2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China

    Wen Chen

  3. College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Shangfeng Chen, Wen Chen, Liang Wu, Hasi Aru & Jingliang Huangfu

  4. Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada

    Bin Yu

  5. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Lin Chen

  6. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China

    Zhibo Li

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  1. Shangfeng Chen
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Contributions

SFC and WC designed the research, SFC performed the analysis and wrote the manuscript. WC, BY, LW, LC, ZL, HA and JH commented and revised the manuscript. JH calculated the GPI.

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Correspondence to Shangfeng Chen.

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Chen, S., Chen, W., Yu, B. et al. Impact of the winter Arctic sea ice anomaly on the following summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 61, 3971–3988 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06789-5

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