Abstract
The characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) in sub-seasonal forecasting with the Global Seasonal Forecast System 5 (GloSea5) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) were assessed for June–September (JJAS) from 1991 to 2010 over the western North Pacific (WNP). The performance of GloSea5 was examined for its ability to reproduce observed TC climatology as well as changes in TC genesis with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and a 1998/1999 climate regime shift (e.g., frequency, genesis spatial distribution). GloSea5 showed skillful performance in predicting the frequency and genesis spatial distribution of TCs in climatology and both ENSO phases; this performance was best during periods of La Niña. Environmental fields related to TC genesis (e.g., sea surface temperature [SST], vertical wind shear [VWS], 850-hPa wind and relative vorticity) were also reasonably captured, despite some systematic biases in SST, low-level circulation, relative vorticity, and VWS. GloSea5 performed well in terms of characteristic of changes in TC genesis before and after the regime shift. However, there were biases in TC frequency before the regime shift and changes in TC-related environmental fields. Our results imply that GloSea5 with a high predictive skill for TC genesis over the WNP can be used as an operational model for sub-seasonal TC forecasting, although it requires continuous improvements to reduce systematic errors.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
JTWC best track data can acquired from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center website (https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html?best-tracks). OISST v2 data can be obtained from the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory website (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html). ERA5 data can be downloaded from the ECMWF website (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5). Data used in this study can be provided upon request to the corresponding author.
References
Best MJ, Pryor M, Clark DB, Rooney GG, Essery RLH, Menard CB, Edwards JM, Hendry MA, Porson A, Gedney N, Mercado LM, Sitch S, Blyth E, Boucher O, Cox PM, Grimmond CSB, Harding RJ (2011) The joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description—part 1: energy and water fluxes. Geosci Model Dev 4:677–699. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011
Bowler NE, Arribas A, Beare SE, Mylne KR, Shutts GJ (2009) The local ETKF and SKEB: upgrades to the MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 135:767–776. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.394
Camargo SJ, Sobel AH (2005) Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J Clim 18:2996–3006. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli3457.1
Camargo SJ, Emanuel KA, Sobel AH (2007) Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J Clim 20:4819–4834. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli4282.1
Camargo SJ, Sobel AH, Barnston AG, Klotzbach PJ (2010) The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity, Chapter 11. In: Chan JCL, Kepert JD (eds) Global perspectives on tropical cyclones, from science to mitigation, vol 4. 2nd end. World Scientific Series on Earth System Science in Asia, Singapore, pp 325–360
Camargo SJ, Camp J, Elsberry RL, Gregory PA, Klotzbach PJ, Schreck CJ III, Sobel AH, Ventrice MJ, Vitart F, Wang Z (2019) Tropical cyclone prediction on subseasonal time-scales. Tropical Cyclone Res Rev 8:150–165. https://doi.org/10.6057/2019TCRR03.04
Camp J, Bett PE, Golding N, Hewitt CD, Mitchell TD, Scaife AA (2020) Verification of the 2019 GloSea5 seasonal tropical cyclone landfall forecast for East China. J Meteorol Res 34:917–925. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-020-0043-5
Camp J, Roberts M, MacLachlan C, Wallace E, Hermanson L, Brookshaw A, Arribas A, Scaife AA (2015) Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using the Met Office GloSea5 seasonal forecast system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 141:2206–2219. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2516
Camp J, Wheeler MC, Hendon HH, Gregory PA, Marshall AG, Tory KJ, Watkins AB, MacLachlan C, Kuleshov Y (2018) Skilful multiweek tropical cyclone prediction in ACCESS-S1 and the role of the MJO. Q J R Meteorol Soc 144:1337–1351. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3260
Camp J, Roberts MJ, Comer RE, Wu PL, MacLachlan C, Bett PE, Golding N, Toumi R, Chan JCL (2019) The western Pacific subtropical high and tropical cyclone landfall: seasonal forecasts using the Met Office GloSea5 system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 145:105–116. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3407
Cha DH, Jin CS, Lee DK, Kuo YH (2011) Impact of intermittent spectral nudging on regional climate simulation using Weather Research and Forecasting model. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jd015069
Chan JC, Shi J-e, Lam C-m (1998) Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over theWestern North Pacific and the South China Sea. Weather Forecast 13:997–1004. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013%3c0997:SFOTCA%3e2.0.CO;2
Chan JCL (2000) Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Nino and La Nina events. J Clim 13:2960–2972. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3c2960:Tcaotw%3e2.0.Co;2
Chan JCL, Shi JE, Liu KS (2001) Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Weather Forecast 16:491–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2001)016%3c0491:IITSFO%3e2.0.CO;2
Chen TC, Wang SY, Yen MC (2006) Interannual variation of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. J Clim 19:5709–5720. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli3934.1
Choi D, Kasdan DO, Yoon DK (2019) Analyzing disaster loss trends: a comparison of normalization methodologies in South Korea. Risk Anal 39:859–870. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13208
Choi K-S, Cha Y-M, Chang K-H, Lee J-H (2013) Multiple Linear regression model for prediction of summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the Western North Pacific. J Korean Earth Sci Soc 34:336–344
Choi W, Ho CH, Jin CS, Kim J, Feng S, Park DSR, Schemm JKE (2016) Seasonal forecasting of intense tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific basins. Clim Dyn 47:3063–3075. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3013-y
Chu J-H, Sampson CR, Levine AS, Fukada E (2002) The joint typhoon warning center tropical cyclone best-tracks, 1945–2000. Ref. NRL/MR/7540‐02 16
Clark DB, Mercado LM, Sitch S, Jones CD, Gedney N, Best MJ, Pryor M, Rooney GG, Essery RLH, Blyth E, Boucher O, Harding RJ, Huntingford C, Cox PM (2011) The joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description—part 2: carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics. Geosci Model Dev 4:701–722. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011
Daniell J, Mühr B, Girard T, Dittrich A, Fohringer J, Lucas C, Kunz-Plapp T (2013) Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda–Report, CEDIM Forensic Disaster Analysis Group in conjunction with wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de and CATDAT, Monterrey
Davies T, Cullen MJP, Malcolm AJ, Mawson MH, Staniforth A, White AA, Wood N (2005) A new dynamical core for the Met Office’s global and regional modelling of the atmosphere. Q J R Meteorol Soc 131:1759–1782. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.101
Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Holm EV, Isaksen L, Kallberg P, Kohler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette JJ, Park BK, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thepaut JN, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828
Du Y, Yang L, Xie SP (2011) Tropical Indian Ocean influence on northwest pacific tropical cyclones in summer following strong El Nino. J Clim 24:315–322. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3890.1
Fan K, Wang HJ (2009) A new approach to forecasting typhoon frequency over the western North Pacific. Weather Forecast 24:974–986. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009waf2222194.1
Gray WM (1979) Hurricanes: their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. In: Shaw DB (ed) Meteorology over the tropical oceans. Royal Meteorological Society, London, pp 155–218
Gray WM (1984a) Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part II: forecasting its variability. Mon Weather Rev 112:1669–1683. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112%3c1669:ASHFPI%3e2.0.CO;2
Gray WM (1984b) Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences. Mon Weather Rev 112:1649–1668. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112%3c1649:ASHFPI%3e2.0.CO;2
Gregory PA, Camp J, Bigelow K, Brown A (2019) Sub-seasonal predictability of the 2017–2018 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season. Atmos Sci Lett 20:e886. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.886
Ha Y, Zhong Z (2013) Contrast of tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific between two types of La Nina events. Sci China Earth Sci 56:397–407. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-012-4475-3
He HZ, Yang J, Gong DY, Mao R, Wang YQ, Gao MN (2015) Decadal changes in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the late 1990s. Clim Dyn 45:3317–3329. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2541-1
Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P, Hirahara S, Horanyi A, Munoz-Sabater J, Nicolas J, Peubey C, Radu R, Schepers D, Simmons A, Soci C, Abdalla S, Abellan X, Balsamo G, Bechtold P, Biavati G, Bidlot J, Bonavita M, De Chiara G, Dahlgren P, Dee D, Diamantakis M, Dragani R, Flemming J, Forbes R, Fuentes M, Geer A, Haimberger L, Healy S, Hogan RJ, Holm E, Janiskova M, Keeley S, Laloyaux P, Lopez P, Lupu C, Radnoti G, de Rosnay P, Rozum I, Vamborg F, Villaume S, Thepaut JN (2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 146:1999–2049. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803
Ho CH, Baik JJ, Kim JH, Gong DY, Sui CH (2004) Interdecadal changes in summertime typhoon tracks. J Clim 17:1767–1776. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3c1767:Icistt%3e2.0.Co;2
Ho CH, Kim JH, Kim HS, Choi W, Lee MH, Yoo HD, Kim TR, Park S (2013) Technical note on a track-pattern-based model for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Adv Atmos Sci 30:1260–1274. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-013-2237-6
Hunke E C, Lipscomb W H, Turner A K, Jeffery N, Elliott S (2010) CICE: the Los Alamos sea ice model documentation and software user’s manual version 4.1, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos
Iizuka S, Matsuura T (2008) ENSO and western north pacific tropical cyclone activity simulated in a CGCM. Clim Dyn 30:815–830. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0326-x
Jin CS, Ho CH, Kim JH, Lee DK, Cha DH, Yeh SW (2013) Critical Role of Northern Off-Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature Forcing Associated with Central Pacific El Nino in More Frequent Tropical Cyclone Movements toward East Asia. J Clim 26:2534–2545. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00287.1
Jin CS, Cha DH, Lee DK, Suh MS, Hong SY, Kang HS, Ho CH (2016) Evaluation of climatological tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the CORDEX-East Asia multi-RCM simulations. Clim Dyn 47:765–778. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2869-6
Jo HS, Yeh SW, Kim CH (2013) A possible mechanism for the North Pacific regime shift in winter of 1998/1999. Geophys Res Lett 40:4380–4385. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50798
Jo HS, Yeh SW, Lee SK (2015) Changes in the relationship in the SST variability between the tropical Pacific and the North Pacific across the 1998/1999 regime shift. Geophys Res Lett 42:7171–7178. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl065049
Kim E, Lee M, Kim T, Cha D-H, Chang E-C (2021) Analysis of synoptic patterns of abnormally high number of typhoons affecting the Korean Peninsula in 2019. J Clim Res 16:123–132. https://doi.org/10.14383/cri.2021.16.2.123
Kim HM, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2011) Modulation of North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by three phases of ENSO. J Clim 24:1839–1849. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3939.1
Kim HS, Ho CH, Kim JH, Chu PS (2012) Track-pattern-based model for seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. J Clim 25:4660–4678. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00236.1
Kim OY, Kim HM, Lee MI, Min YM (2017) Dynamical-statistical seasonal prediction for western North Pacific typhoons based on APCC multi-models. Clim Dyn 48:71–88. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3063-1
Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, Caron L-P, Chan JC, Kang N-Y, Kuleshov Y, Lee S-M, Murakami H, Saunders M (2019) Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasting. Tropical Cyclone Res Rev 8:134–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.10.003
Klotzbach PJ, Barnston A, Bell G, Camargo S, Chan JC, Lea A, Saunders M, Vitart F (2012) Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones. In: Guard C (ed) Global guide to tropical cyclone forecasting, 2nd edn. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva
Lea AS, Saunders M (2006) Seasonal prediction of typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific basin. In: Preprints, 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, American Meteorology Society P5. 23
Lee M, Cha DH, Suh MS, Chang EC, Ahn JB, Min SK, Byun YH (2020a) Comparison of tropical cyclone activities over the western North Pacific in CORDEX-East Asia Phase I and II experiments. J Clim 33:10593–10607. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-19-1014.1
Lee SM, Lee JH, Ko AR, Hyun YK, Kim Y (2020b) Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using GloSea5 hindcast. Atmosphere 30(3):209–220. https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2020.30.3.209
Li RCY, Zhou W, Shun CM, Lee TC (2017) Change in destructiveness of landfalling tropical cyclones over China in recent decades. J Clim 30:3367–3379. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-16-0258.1
Li X, Yang S, Wang H, Jia XL, Kumar A (2013) A dynamical-statistical forecast model for the annual frequency of western Pacific tropical cyclones based on the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. J Geophys Res-Atmos 118:12061–12074. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013jd020708
Liu KS, Chan JCL (2003) Climatological characteristics and seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones making landfall along the South China coast. Mon Weather Rev 131:1650–1662. https://doi.org/10.1175//2554.1
Liu KS, Chan JCL (2013) Inactive period of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 1998–2011. J Clim 26:2614–2630. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00053.1
MacLachlan C, Arribas A, Peterson KA, Maidens A, Fereday D, Scaife AA, Gordon M, Vellinga M, Williams A, Comer RE, Camp J, Xavier P, Madec G (2015) Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 141:1072–1084. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2396
Madec G (2008) NEMO reference manual, ocean dynamics component: NEMO-OPA. Note du Pole de modélisation 27, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), France
Manganello JV, Hodges KI, Cash BA, Kinter JL, Altshuler EL, Fennessy MJ, Vitart F, Molteni F, Towers P (2016) Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system. J Clim 29:1179–1200. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-15-0531.1
McAneney J, Sandercock B, Crompton R, Mortlock T, Musulin R, Pielke R Jr, Gissing A (2019) Normalised insurance losses from Australian natural disasters: 1966–2017. Environ Hazards 18:414–433. https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2019.1609406
Mendelsohn R, Emanuel K, Chonabayashi S, Bakkensen L (2012) The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage. Nat Clim Chang 2:205–209. https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate1357
Miller S, Muir-Wood R, Boissonnade A (2008) An exploration of trends in normalized weather-related catastrophe losses. Clim Extremes Soc 12:225–247. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511535840
Min S-K, Seong M-G, Cha D-H, Lee M, Lott FC, Ciavarella A, Stott PA, Kim M-K, Boo K-O, Byun Y-H (2021) Has global warming contributed to the largest number of typhoons affecting South Korea in September 2019? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 102:S51–S57. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0156.1
Moon M, Ha KJ (2021) Abnormal activities of tropical cyclones in 2019 Over the Korean Peninsula. Geophys Res Lett 48:e2020GL090784. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090784
Nakano M, Vitart F, Kikuchi K (2021) Impact of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on typhoon tracks in the western North Pacific and the prediction skill of the ECMWF model. Geophys Res Lett 48:e2020GL091505. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091505
National Academies of Sciences E, and Medicine (2016) Next generation earth system prediction: strategies for subseasonal to seasonal forecasts. National Academies Press, Washington DC
Nicholls N (1979) A possible method for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region. Mon Weather Rev 107:1221–1224. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1979)107%3c1221:APMFPS%3e2.0.CO;2
Nicholls N (1984) The Southern Oscillation, sea-surface-temperature, and interannual fluctuations in Australian Tropical Cyclone activity. J Climatol 4:661–670. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370040609
Nicholls N (1985) Predictability of interannual variations of australian seasonal tropical cyclone activity. Mon Weather Rev 113:1144–1149. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113%3c1144:Poivoa%3e2.0.Co;2
Park DSR, Ho CH, Nam CC, Kim HS (2015) Evidence of reduced vulnerability to tropical cyclones in the Republic of Korea. Environ Res Lett 10:054003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054003
Pielke R (2021) Economic ‘normalisation’of disaster losses 1998–2020: a literature review and assessment. Environ Hazards 20:93–111. https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2020.1800440
Reynolds RW, Smith TM, Liu C, Chelton DB, Casey KS, Schlax MG (2007) Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J Clim 20:5473–5496. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1824.1
Shimozono T, Tajima Y, Kumagai K, Arikawa T, Oda Y, Shigihara Y, Mori N, Suzuki T (2020) Coastal impacts of super typhoon Hagibis on Greater Tokyo and Shizuoka areas, Japan. Coast Eng J 62:129–145. https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2020.1744212
Stocker T (2014) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Working Group I contribution to the Fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Valcke S (2013) The OASIS3 coupler: a European climate modelling community software. Geosci Model Dev 6:373–388. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-373-2013
Vecchi GA, Delworth T, Gudgel R, Kapnick S, Rosati A, Wittenberg AT, Zeng F, Anderson W, Balaji V, Dixon K, Jia L, Kim HS, Krishnamurthy L, Msadek R, Stern WF, Underwood SD, Villarini G, Yang X, Zhang S (2014) On the seasonal forecasting of regional tropical cyclone activity. J Clim 27:7994–8016. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-14-00158.1
Vitart F, Robertson AW (2018) The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events. Npj Clim Atmos Sci 1:1–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0013-0
Vitart F, Anderson D, Stockdale T (2003) Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. J Clim 16:3932–3945. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016%3c3932:Sfotcl%3e2.0.Co;2
Vitart F, Huddleston MR, Deque M, Peake D, Palmer TN, Stockdale TN, Davey MK, Ineson S, Weisheimer A (2007) Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gl030740
Vitart F, Ardilouze C, Bonet A, Brookshaw A, Chen M, Codorean C, Deque M, Ferranti L, Fucile E, Fuentes M, Hendon H, Hodgson J, Kang HS, Kumar A, Lin H, Liu G, Liu X, Malguzzi P, Mallas I, Manoussakis M, Mastrangelo D, MacLachlan C, McLean P, Minami A, Mladek R, Nakazawa T, Najm S, Nie Y, Rixen M, Robertson AW, Ruti P, Sun C, Takaya Y, Tolstykh M, Venuti F, Waliser D, Woolnough S, Wu T, Won DJ, Xiao H, Zaripov R, Zhang L (2017) The subseasonal to seasonal (S2s) prediction project database. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 98:163-+. https://doi.org/10.1175/Bams-D-16-0017.1
Vitart FD, Stockdale TN (2001) Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using coupled GCM integrations. Mon Weather Rev 129:2521–2537. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129%3c2521:Sfotsu%3e2.0.Co;2
Walters D, Boutle I, Brooks M, Melvin T, Stratton R, Vosper S, Wells H, Williams K, NigelWood AT, Bushell A, Copsey D, Earnshaw P, Edwards J, Gross M, Hardiman S, Harris C, Heming J, Klingaman N, Levine R, Manners J, Martin G, Milton S, Mittermaier M, Morcrette C, Riddick T, Roberts M, Sanchez C, Selwood P, Stirling A, Smith C, Suri D, Tennant W, Vidale PL, JonathanWilkinson WM, Woolnough S, Xavier P (2017) The met office unified model global atmosphere 6.0/6.1 and JULES global land 6.0/6.1 configurations. Geosci Model Dev 10:1487–1520. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017
Wang B, Chan JCL (2002) How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the Western North Pacific. J Clim 15:1643–1658. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3c1643:Hseeat%3e2.0.Co;2
Wang YJ, Wen SS, Li XC, Thomas F, Su BD, Wang R, Jiang T (2016) Spatiotemporal distributions of influential tropical cyclones and associated economic losses in China in 1984–2015. Nat Hazards 84:2009–2030. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2531-6
Waters J, Lea DJ, Martin MJ, Mirouze I, Weaver A, While J (2015) Implementing a variational data assimilation system in an operational 1/4 degree global ocean model. Q J R Meteorol Soc 141:333–349. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2388
Weinkle J, Landsea C, Collins D, Musulin R, Crompton RP, Klotzbach PJ, Pielke R (2018) Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900–2017. Nat Sustain 1:808–813. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0165-2
Williams KD, Harris CM, Bodas-Salcedo A, Camp J, Comer RE, Copsey D, Fereday D, Graham T, Hill R, Hinton T, Hyder P, Ineson S, Masato G, Milton SF, Roberts MJ, Rowell DP, Sanchez C, Shelly A, Sinha B, Walters DN, West A, Woollings T, Xavier PK (2015) The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration. Geosci Model Dev 8:1509–1524. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015
Xu C, Yang Y, Zhang F, Li R, Li Z, Wang YP, Jia J (2022) Spatial-temporal distribution of tropical cyclone activity on the eastern sea area of China since the late 1940s. Estuarine Coastal Shelf Sci. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2022.108067
Zhan RF, Wang YQ (2016) CFSv2-based statistical prediction for seasonal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over the Western North Pacific. J Clim 29:525–541. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-15-0059.1
Zhan RF, Wang YQ, Liu QY (2017) Salient differences in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific between 1998 and 2016. J Clim 30:9979–9997. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-17-0263.1
Zhang XC, Zhong SS, Wu ZW, Li Y (2018) Seasonal prediction of the typhoon genesis frequency over the Western North Pacific with a Poisson regression model. Clim Dyn 51:4585–4600. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3654-5
Zhou C, Chen P, Yang S, Zheng F, Yu H, Tang J, Lu Y, Chen G, Lu X, Zhang X (2022) The impact of Typhoon Lekima (2019) on East China: a postevent survey in Wenzhou city and Taizhou city. Front Earth Sci 16:109–120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-020-0856
Funding
This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI (KMI2020-01214).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
The authors confirmed contribution to the paper as follows: study conception and design: TK and D-HC; data production and collection: TK, EK, S-ML, JL, and K-OB; analysis and interpretation of results: TK, EK, ML, and D-HC; write the manuscript text: TK and D-HC; prepared figures: TK, EK. All authors reviewed the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
All authors declare no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Kim, T., Kim, E., Lee, M. et al. Characteristics of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific related to extreme ENSO and a climate regime shift in sub-seasonal forecasting with GloSea5. Clim Dyn 61, 2637–2653 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06705-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06705-x