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Summer and winter Atlantic Niño: connections with ENSO and implications

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Abstract

The teleconnection between the Atlantic Niño and the Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is revisited using observational and reanalysis data for the 1905–2014 period. Two types of Atlantic Niño are significantly negatively correlated with ENSO, with Atlantic leading ENSO by 6-month to 1-year. The first one is the already well-known connection between the boreal summer Atlantic Niño (ATL3: 3° N–3° S, 20° W–0°) and the subsequent winter ENSO (Niño3: 5° N–5° S, 150° W–90° W). This relationship is strong in the first and last decades of the study period. It is shown that a second Atlantic Niño in boreal fall/early winter (October–December, hereinafter called winter Atlantic Niño) is also significantly correlated with the following year ENSO. This winter Atlantic Niño leads to an early development of ENSO from boreal summer onwards, with a marked multidecadal modulation of the lead time. A nearly 1-year leading connection between winter Atlantic Niño and the following ENSO is generally observed in the mid-twentieth century, mostly when the summer Atlantic Niño teleconnection with the subsequent winter ENSO is weak. The same mechanism of the Atlantic–Pacific Niño connection, which involves the Walker circulation, operates for the two types of Atlantic Niño. Our analysis supports the leading influence of the summer and winter Atlantic equatorial modes on climate variability in South America. These results suggest the relevance of different types of Atlantic Niño for the 6-month to 1-year predictability of ENSO and its climatic impacts.

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Notes

  1. All seasons indicated in this study are referred to boreal seasons.

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Acknowledgements

This study is a component of the project “Elaboração de Estudos de Suporte ao Planejamento e à Gestão de Sistemas Hídricos no Nordeste, com foco no Abastecimento Urbano e na Operação de Infraestruturas Hídricas de Uso Múltiplo” (Grant 001/2016 ANA/FUNCEME SICONV 863.189/2016). J. S. thanks FUNCEME (Edital 01/2016) for its support at Fortaleza, CE, Brazil. This work also represents collaboration by the INCT AmbTropic, the Brazilian National Institute of Science and Technology for Tropical Marine Environments, CNPq/FAPESB (grants 565054/2010-4 and 8936/2011 and 465634/2014-1) and the Brazilian Research Network on Global Climate Change FINEP/Rede CLIMA (grants 01.13.0353-00). This is a contribution to the LMI-TAPIOCA and to the TRIATLAS project, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 817578. We acknowledge Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/) for HadISST and EN.4.2.1 dataset. The 20th Century Reanalysis V3 data are provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. GPCC Precipitation data are provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources (FUNCEME), Av. Rui Barbosa, 1246, Fortaleza, CE, 60115-221, Brazil

    Aubains Hounsou-Gbo, Jacques Servain, Francisco das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior & Eduardo Sávio P. R. Martins

  2. International Chair in Mathematical Physics and Applications (ICMPA-Unesco Chair), UAC, 072 P.O. Box 50, Cotonou, Benin

    Aubains Hounsou-Gbo

  3. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), LOCEAN, Université de Paris 6, 75000, Paris, France

    Jacques Servain

  4. Laboratório de Oceanografia Física Estuarina e Costeira (LOFEC), Department of Oceanography-DOCEAN, Federal University of Pernambuco-UFPE, Av. Arquitetura s/n, Recife, PE, 50740-550, Brazil

    Moacyr Araújo

  5. Brazilian Research Network on Global Climate Change (Rede CLIMA), Av. dos Astronautas, 1758, São José dos Campos, SP, 1227-010, Brazil

    Moacyr Araújo

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  1. Aubains Hounsou-Gbo
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Hounsou-Gbo, A., Servain, J., Vasconcelos Junior, F.C. et al. Summer and winter Atlantic Niño: connections with ENSO and implications. Clim Dyn 55, 2939–2956 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05424-x

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