Abstract
The Indian Ocean has warmed rapidly and notably at a faster rate than the other tropical ocean basins in the latter half of the twentieth century. We conduct sensitivity experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model to determine the impact of Indian Ocean surface warming on large-scale global atmospheric circulation trends and rainfall distribution, in terms of its pattern and magnitude. Indian Ocean warming drives changes in the local Indian Ocean Walker cell that leads to anomalous easterlies over the Pacific Ocean and strengthens the Pacific Walker Circulation. The anomalous Indian Ocean Walker cell results in anomalous subsidence over Central Africa and the tropical Atlantic, where it is associated with a precipitation decrease over the equator. During austral summer, Indian Ocean warming is associated with the intensification of the northern hemisphere Hadley cell and strengthening of the extratropical atmospheric circulation resembling a positive North Atlantic Oscillation. During austral winter, it is associated with weakening of the southern hemisphere Hadley cell and strengthening of a positive Southern Annular Mode pattern. More intensive warming in the western region of the Indian Ocean basin compared to the east has a significant impact on rainfall trends in the basin, easterly wind trend in the western Pacific and intensity of Hadley circulation changes. It is, however, the Indian Ocean warming across the entire basin that dominates the drying of the tropical Atlantic and the trends in extratropical modes of variability. This study suggests the Indian Ocean warming could have potentially influenced global atmospheric circulation trends observed in the recent decades.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abish B, Cherchi A, Ratna SB (2018) ENSO and the recent warming of the Indian Ocean. Int J Climatol 38(1):203–214. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5170
Alexander MA, Bladé I, Newman M, Lanzante JR, Lau NC, Scott JD (2002) The atmospheric bridge: the influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans. J Clim 15(16):2205–2231. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2205:TABTIO>2.0.CO;2
Alory G, Meyers G (2009) Warming of the upper equatorial Indian Ocean and changes in the heat budget (1960–99). J Clim 22(1):93–113. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2330.1
Alory G, Wijffels S, Meyers G (2007) Observed temperature trends in the Indian Ocean over 1960–1999 and associated mechanisms. Geophys Res Lett 34(2):2–7. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028044
Ambrizzi T, Hoskins BJ (1997) Stationary Rossby-wave propagation in a baroclinic atmosphere. Q J R Meteorol Soc 123(540):919–928. https://doi.org/10.1256/smsqj.54006
Bader J, Latif M (2003) The impact of decadal-scale Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 30(22):1–4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018426
Baker HS, Woollings T, Forest CE, Allen MR (2019) The linear sensitivity of the North Atlantic Oscillation and eddy-driven jet to SSTs. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0038.1
Barnett TP, Pierce DW, Achutarao KM, Gleckler PJ, Santer BD, Gregory JM, Washington WM (2005) Penetration of human-induced warming into the World ’ s Oceans. Science 284:284–287. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1112418
Bollasina M, Nigam S, Lau KM (2008) Absorbing aerosols and summer monsoon evolution over South Asia: an observational portrayal. J Clim 21(13):3221–3239. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2094.1
Bracco A, Falasca F, Nenes A, Fountalis I, Dovrolis C (2017) Advancing climate science with knowledge-discovery through data mining. NPJ Clim Atmos Sci 1(1):4. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-017-0006-4
Cai W, Sullivan A, Cowan T (2008) Shoaling of the off-equatorial south Indian Ocean thermocline: Is it driven by anthropogenic forcing? Geophys Res Lett 35(12):2–6. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034174
Cai W, van Rensch P, Cowan T, Hendon HH (2011) Teleconnection pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall. J Clim 24(15):3910–3923. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4129.1
Cai W, Borlace S, Lengaigne M, van Rensch P, Collins M et al (2014) Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nat Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2100
Cai W, Wang G, Dewitte B, Wu L, Santoso A, Takahashi K et al (2018) Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming. Nature 564(7735):201–206. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0776-9
Cai W, Wu L, Lengaigne M, Li T, McGregor S, Kug J-S et al (2019) Pantropical climate interactions. Science 363(6430):eaav4236. https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIENCE.AAV4236
Chung E-S, Timmermann A, Soden BJ, Ha K-J, Shi L, John VO (2019) Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections. Nat Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0446-4
Chu JE, Ha KJ, Lee JY, Wang B, Kim BH, Chung CE (2014) Future change of the Indian Ocean basin-wide and dipole modes in the CMIP5. Clim Dyn 43(1–2):535–551. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2002-7
Deser C, Phillips AS, Alexander MA (2010) Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited. Geophys Res Lett 37(10):1–6. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043321
Deser C, Phillips AS, Tomas RA, Okumura YM, Alexander MA, Capotondi A et al (2012) ENSO and pacific decadal variability in the community climate system model version 4. J Clim 25(8):2622–2651. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00301.1
Dey R, Lewis SC, Abram NJ (2019) Investigating observed northwest Australian rainfall trends in coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 detection and attribution experiments. Int J Climatol 39(1):112–127. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5788
Dong L, McPhaden MJ (2017) The role of external forcing and internal variability in regulating global mean surface temperatures on decadal timescales related content spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Environ Res Lett 12:034011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5dd8
Drouard M, Rivière G, Arbogast P (2013) The north Atlantic oscillation response to large-scale atmospheric anomalies in the northeastern Pacific. J Atmos Sci 70(9):2854–2874. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0351.1
Du Y, Xie SP (2008b) Role of atmospheric adjustments in the tropical Indian Ocean warming during the 20th century in climate models. Geophys Res Lett 35(8):2–6. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316480366
Du Y, Xie S-P (2008a) Role of atmospheric adjustments in the tropical Indian Ocean warming during the 20th century in climate models. Geophys Res Lett 35(8):L08712. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033631
Fletcher CG, Kushner PJ (2011) The role of linear interference in the annular mode response to tropical SST forcing. J Clim 24(3):778–794. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3735.1
Funk C, Dettinger MD, Michaelsen JC, Verdin JP, Brown ME, Barlow M, Hoell A (2008) Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105(32):11081–11086. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0708196105
Giannini A (2010) Mechanisms of climate change in the semi-arid African Sahel: the local view. J Clim 23:743–756. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3123.1
Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106(449):447–462. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710644905
Guemas V, Corti S, García-Serrano J, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Balmaseda M, Magnusson L (2013) The Indian ocean: the region of highest skill worldwide in decadal climate prediction. J Clim 26(3):726–739. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00049.1
Hagos SM, Cook KH (2008) Ocean warming and late-twentieth-century Sahel drought and recovery. J Clim 21(15):3797–3814. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2055.1
Han W, Vialard J, McPhaden MJ, Lee T, Masumoto Y, Feng M, De Ruijter WP (2014a) Indian Ocean decadal variability: a review. Bull Am Meteor Soc 95(11):1679–1703
Han W, Meehl GA, Hu A, Alexander MA, Yamagata T, Yuan D et al (2014b) Intensification of decadal and multi-decadal sea level variability in the western tropical Pacific during recent decades. Clim Dyn 43(5–6):1357–1379. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1951-1
Hastenrath S, Polzin D, Mutai C (2011) Circulation mechanisms of kenya rainfall anomalies. J Clim 24(2):404–412. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3599.1
Herold N, Santoso A (2018) Indian Ocean warming during peak El Niño cools surrounding land masses. Clim Dyn 51(5):2097–2112. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4001-6
He J, Soden BJ (2016) Does the lack of coupling in SST-forced atmosphere-only models limit their usefulness for climate change studies? J Clim 29(12):4317–4325. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00597.1
Hoell A, Funk C (2014) Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature influences on failed consecutive rainy seasons over eastern Africa. Clim Dyn 43(5–6):1645–1660. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1991-6
Hoerling MP, Hurrell JW, Xu T, Bates GT, Phillips AS (2004) Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming. Clim Dyn 23(3–4):391–405. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0433-x
Hu S, Fedorov AV (2019) Indian Ocean warming can strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nat Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0566-x
Hurrell JW, Holland MM, Gent PR, Ghan S, Kay JE, Kushner PJ et al (2013) The community earth system model: a framework for collaborative research. Bull Am Meteor Soc 94(9):1339–1360. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1
Iacono MJ, Delamere JS, Mlawer EJ, Shephard MW, Clough SA, Collins WD (2008) Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: calculations with the AER radiative transfer models. J Geophys Res Atmos 113(13):2–9. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944
Ihara C, Kushnir Y, Cane MA (2008) Warming trend of the Indian Ocean SST and Indian Ocean dipole from 1880 to 2004. J Clim 21(10):2035–2046. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1945.1
Islam S, Tang Y, Jackson PL (2013) Asian monsoon simulations by community climate models CAM4 and CCSM4. Clim Dyn 41(9–10):2617–2642. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1752-6
Jourdain NC, Gupta AS, Taschetto AS, Ummenhofer CC, Moise AF, Ashok K (2013) The Indo-Australian monsoon and its relationship to ENSO and IOD in reanalysis data and the CMIP3/CMIP5 simulations. Clim Dyn 41(11–12):3073–3102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1676-1
Kajtar JB, Santoso A, England MH, Cai W (2017) Tropical climate variability: interactions across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans. Clim Dyn 48(7–8):2173–2190. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3199-z
Kamworapan S, Surussavadee C (2019) Evaluation of CMIP5 global climate models for simulating climatological temperature and precipitation for southeast Asia. Adv Meteorol. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/1067365
Karoly DJ (1983) Rossby wave propagation in a barotropic atmosphere. Dyn Atmos Oceans 7(2):111–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0265(83)90013-1
Kay JE, Deser C, Phillips A, Mai A, Hannay C, Strand G et al (2015) The community earth system model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull Am Meteor Soc. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1
Kessler WS, McPhaden MJ, Weickmann KM (1996) Forcing of intraseasonal Kelvin waves in the equatorial Pacific. Oceanogr Lit Rev 43(1):12
Kitoh A, Watanabe S, Kamae Y, Hayasaki M, Ueda H, Miki Y, Kumai A (2015) Combined effects of recent Pacific cooling and Indian Ocean warming on the Asian monsoon. Nat Commun 6(1):1–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9854
Knutson TR, Delworth TL, Dixon KW, Held IM, Lu J, Ramaswamy V et al (2006) Assessment of twentieth-century regional surface temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models. J Clim 19(9):1624–1651. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3709.1
Kociuba G, Power SB (2015) Inability of CMIP5 models to simulate recent strengthening of the walker circulation: implications for projections. J Clim 28(1):20–35. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00752.1
Krishnamurthy V, Goswami BN (2000) Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship on interdecadal timescale. J Clim 13:579–595. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3C0579:IMEROI%3E2.0.CO;2
Kucharski F, Molteni F, Yoo JH (2006) SST forcing of decadal Indian Monsoon rainfall variability. Geophys Res Lett 33(3):1–4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025371
Lawrence DM, Oleson KW, Flanner MG, Thornton PE, Swenson SC, Lawrence PJ et al (2011) Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in version 4 of the community land model. J Adv Model Earth Syst 3(3):1–27. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011ms000045
Lee SK, Wang C, Mapes BE (2009) A simple atmospheric model of the local and teleconnection responses to tropical heating anomalies. J Clim 22(2):272–284. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2303.1
Lee SK, Park W, Baringer MO, Gordon AL, Huber B, Liu Y (2015) Pacific origin of the abrupt increase in Indian Ocean heat content during the warming hiatus. Nat Geosci 8(6):445–449. https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2438
Li S, Perlwitz J, Hoerling MP, Chen X (2010) Opposite annular responses of the northern and southern hemispheres to Indian Ocean warming. J Clim 23(13):3720–3738. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3410.1
Liebmann B, Hoerling MP, Funk C, Bladé I, Dole RM, Allured D et al (2014) Understanding recent eastern Horn of Africa rainfall variability and change. J Clim 27(23):8630–8645. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00714.1
Lin Z, Li Y (2012) Remote influence of the tropical Atlantic on the variability and trend in North West Australia summer rainfall. J Clim 25(7):2408–2420. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00020.1
Liu X, Easter RC, Ghan SJ, Zaveri R, Rasch P, Shi X et al (2012) Toward a minimal representation of aerosols in climate models: description and evaluation in the community atmosphere model CAM5. Geosci Model Dev 5(3):709–739. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-709-2012
Liu W, Lu J, Xie S-P (2015) Understanding the Indian Ocean response to double CO2 forcing in a coupled model. Ocean Dyn 65(7):1037–1046. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0854-6
Li G, Xie SP, Du Y (2016) A robust but spurious pattern of climate change in model projections over the tropical Indian Ocean. J Clim 29(15):5589–5608. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0565.1
Lu J (2009) The dynamics of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature forcing of Sahel drought. Clim Dyn 33(4):445–460. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0596-6
Luffman JJ, Taschetto AS, England MH (2010) Global and regional climate response to late twentieth-century warming over the Indian Ocean. J Clim 23(7):1660–1674. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3086.1
Luo J-J, Sasaki W, Masumoto Y (2012) Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 109(46):18701–18706. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1210239109
Lyon B (2014) Seasonal drought in the greater Horn of Africa and its recent increase during the March–May long rains. J Clim 27(21):7953–7975. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00459.1
Lyon B, Dewitt DG (2012) A recent and abrupt decline in the East African long rains. Geophys Res Lett 39(2):1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050337
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric Tests Against Trend. Econometrica 13(3):245
Matsuno T (1966) Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area. J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II 44(1):25–43. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.44.1_25
McIntosh PC, Hendon HH (2018) Understanding Rossby wave trains forced by the Indian Ocean Dipole. Clim Dyn 50(7–8):2783–2798. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3771-1
Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Collins WD (2008) Effects of black carbon aerosols on the Indian monsoon. J Clim 21(12):2869–2882. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1777.1
Mitas CM, Clement A (2005) Has the Hadley cell been strengthening in recent decades? Geophys Res Lett 32(3):1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021765
Morrison H, Gettelman A (2008) A new two-moment bulk stratiform cloud microphysics scheme in the community atmosphere model, version 3 (CAM3). Part I: description and numerical tests. J Clim 21(15):3642–3659. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2105.1
Mutai C, Polzin D, Hastenrath S (2012) Diagnosing Kenya rainfall in boreal autumn: further exploration. J Clim 25(12):4323–4329. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00414.1
Neale RB, Gettelman A, Park S, Chen C-C, Lauritzen PH, Williamson DL, Conley AJ et al. (2012) Description of the NCAR community atmosphere model (CAM 5.0). In: NCAR technical note NCAR/TN-486+STR, p 289.
Nicholson SE (2017) Climate and climatic variability of rainfall over eastern Africa. Rev Geophys 55(3):590–635. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016rg000544
Oleson KW, Lawrence DM, Bonan GB, Flanner MG, Kluzek E, Lawrence PJ et al. (2010) Technical description of version 4.0 of the Community Land Model (CLM). In: NCAR/TN-478 + STR., Boulder, C(April), National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Omondi P, Ogallo LA, Anyah R, Muthama JM, Ininda J (2013) Linkages between global sea surface temperatures and decadal rainfall variability over Eastern Africa region. Int J Climatol 33(8):2082–2104. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3578
Park S, Bretherton CS (2009) The University of Washington shallow convection and moist turbulence schemes and their impact on climate simulations with the community atmosphere model. J Clim 22(12):3449–3469. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2557.1
Qin Y, Lin Y (2018) Alleviated double ITCZ Problem in the NCAR CESM1: a new cloud scheme and the working mechanisms. J Adv Model Earth Syst 10(9):2318–2332. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001343
Quan X-W, Diaz HF, Hoerling MP (2007) Change in the tropical Hadley cell since 1950. NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostic Center, Boulder, pp 85–120. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-2944-8_4
Rao SA, Dhakate AR, Saha SK, Mahapatra S, Chaudhari HS, Pokhrel S, Sahu SK (2012) Why is Indian Ocean warming consistently? Clim Change 110(3–4):709–719. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0121-x
Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670
Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Mohino E, Mechoso CR, Caminade C, Biasutti M, Gaetani M et al (2015) Variability and predictability of west African droughts: a review on the role of sea surface temperature anomalies. J Clim 28(10):4034–4060. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00130.1
Rotstayn LD, Jeffrey SJ, Collier MA, Dravitzki SM, Hirst AC, Syktus JI, Wong KK (2012) Aerosol- and greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations. Atmos Chem Phys 12(14):6377–6404. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-6377-2012
Rowell DP, Booth BBB, Nicholson SE, Good P (2015) Reconciling past and future rainfall trends over East Africa. J Clim 28(24):9768–9788. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0140.1
Roxy MK, Ritika K, Terray P, Masson S (2014) The curious case of Indian Ocean warming. J Clim 27(22):8501–8509. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00471.1
Roxy MK, Ritika K, Terray P, Murtugudde R, Ashok K, Goswami BN (2015) Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nat Commun 6:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8423
Sanchezgomez E, Cassou C, Hodson DLR, Keenlyside N, Okumura Y (2008) North Atlantic weather regimes response to Indian-western Pacific Ocean warming: a multi-model study. Geophys Res Lett 35:1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034345
Santoso A, England MH, Cai W (2012) Impact of indo-pacific feedback interactions on ENSO dynamics diagnosed using ensemble climate simulations. J Clim 25(21):7743–7763. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00287.1
Scaife AA, Comer RE, Dunstone NJ, Knight JR, Smith DM, MacLachlan C, Slingo J (2017) Tropical rainfall, Rossby waves and regional winter climate predictions. Q J R Meteorol Soc 143(702):1–11. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2910
Schott FA, Xie SP, McCreary JP (2009) Indian ocean circulation and climate variability. Rev Geophys 47(1):1–46. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007RG000245
Schwarzkopf FU, Bning CW (2011) Contribution of Pacific wind stress to multi-decadal variations in upper-ocean heat content and sea level in the tropical south Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 38(12):1–6. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047651
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63(324):1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
Sharmila S, Hendon HH (2020) Mechanisms of multiyear variations of Northern Australia wet-season rainfall. Sci Rep 10(1):1–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61482-5
Song F, Leung LR, Lu J, Dong L (2018) Seasonally dependent responses of subtropical highs and tropical rainfall to anthropogenic warming. Nat Clim Change 8(9):787–792. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0244-4
Subramanian AC, Jochum M, Miller AJ, Murtugudde R, Neale RB, Waliser DE (2011) The Madden-Julian oscillation in CCSM4. J Clim 24(24):6261–6282. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00031.1
Taschetto AS, Haarsma RJ, Sen Gupta A, Ummenhofer CC, Hill KJ, England MH (2010) Australian monsoon variability driven by a Gill-Matsuno-type response to central west Pacific warming. J Clim 23(18):4717–4736. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3474.1
Taschetto AS, Sen Gupta A, Hendon HH, Ummenhofer CC, England MH (2011) The contribution of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Australian summer rainfall during EL Niño events. J Clim 24(14):3734–3747. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3885.1
Taschetto AS, Ambrizzi T (2012) Can Indian Ocean SST anomalies influence South American rainfall? Clim Dyn 38(7–8):1615–1628. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1165-3
Taschetto AS, Sen Gupta A, Jourdain NC, Santoso A, Ummenhofer CC, England MH (2014) Cold tongue and warm pool ENSO events in CMIP5: mean state and future projections. J Clim 27(8):2861–2885
Tierney JE, Smerdon JE, Anchukaitis KJ, Seager R (2013) Multidecadal variability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the Indian Ocean. Nature 493(7432):389–392. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11785
Tierney JE, Abram NJ, Anchukaitis KJ, Evans MN, Giry C, Kilbourne KH et al (2015a) Tropical Corals 400 yrs reconstructed from coral archives. Paleoceanography 30:226–252. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014PA002717.Received
Tierney JE, Ummenhofer CC, DeMenocal PB (2015b) Past and future rainfall in the Horn of Africa. Sci Adv 1(9):1–9. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500682
Trenary LL, Han W (2008) Causes of decadal subsurface cooling in the tropical Indian Ocean during 1961–2000. Geophys Res Lett 35(17):13–17. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034687
Trenberth EK, Hoar JT (1996) Longest on record. Geophys Res Lett 23(1):57–60. https://doi.org/10.1029/95GL03602
Ummenhofer CC, Gupta AS, England MH, Reason CJC (2009) Contributions of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures to enhanced East African rainfall. J Clim 22(4):993–1013. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2493.1
Ummenhofer CC, Biastoch A, Böning CW (2017) Multidecadal indian ocean variability linked to the pacific and implications for preconditioning indian ocean dipole events. J Clim 30(5):1739–1751. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0200.1
Vialard J (2015) Ocean Science: hiatus heat in the Indian Ocean. Nat Geosci 8(6):423–424. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2442
Wang CC, Lee WL, Chen YL, Hsu HH (2015) Processes leading to double intertropical convergence zone bias in CESM1/CAM5. J Clim 28(7):2900–2915. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00622.1
Wardle R, Smith I (2004) Modeled response of the Australian monsoon to changes in land surface temperatures. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020157
Webber BGM, Matthews AJ, Heywood KJ (2010) A dynamical ocean feedback mechanism for the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 136(648):740–754. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.604
Weller E, Min S-K, Cai W, Zwiers FW, Kim Y-H, Lee D (2016) Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion. Sci Adv 2(7):e1501719–e1501719. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501719
Wilks DS (2016) the stippling shows statistically significant grid points. Bull Am Meteor Soc 97:2263–2274. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00267.1
Williams AP, Funk C, Michaelsen J, Rauscher SA, Robertson I, Wils THG et al (2012) Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature. Clim Dyn 39(9–10):2307–2328. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1222-y
Xie SP, Hu K, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, Sampe T (2009) Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-Western pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J Clim 22(3):730–747. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2544.1
Xie SP, Kosaka Y, Du Y, Hu K, Chowdary JS, Huang G (2016) Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: a review. Adv Atmos Sci 33(4):411–432. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5192-6
Yang J, Liu Q, Liu Z, Wu L, Huang F (2009) Basin mode of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and Northern Hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection. Geophys Res Lett 36(19):1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039559
Yang W, Seager R, Cane MA, Lyon B (2015) The rainfall annual cycle bias over East Africa in CMIP5 coupled climate models. J Clim 28(24):9789–9802. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0323.1
Yao Z, Tang Y, Chen D, Zhou L, Li X, Lian T, Islam SU (2016) Assessment of the simulation of Indian Ocean Dipole in the CESM—Impacts of atmospheric physics and model resolution. J Adv Model Earth Syst 8(4):1932–1952
Yao Z, Tang Y, Lian T, Xu DF, Li X, Shen Z et al (2019) Roles of atmospheric physics and model resolution in the simulation of two types of El Niño. Ocean Model 143:101468. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.101468
Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrol Process 16(9):1807–1829. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1095
Zebiak SE (1993) Air-sea interaction in the equatorial Atlantic region. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1567:AIITEA>2.0.CO;2
Zhang L, Han W, Sienzn F (2018a) Unraveling causes for the changing behavior of the tropical Indian Ocean in the past few decades. J Clim 31(6):2377–2388. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0445.1
Zhang L, Han W, Karnauskas KB, Meehl GA, Hu A, Rosenbloom N, Shinoda T (2019a) Indian Ocean warming trend reduces Pacific warming response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases: an interbasin thermostat mechanism. Geophys Res Lett 46(19):10882–10890
Zhang L, Sun D-Z, Karnauskas KB (2019b) The role of the Indian Ocean in determining the tropical pacific SST response to radiative forcing in an idealized model. Dyn Atmos Oceans. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2019.02.003
Zhang L, Karnauskas KB (2017) The role of tropical interbasin SST gradients in forcing walker circulation trends. J Clim 30(2):499–508. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0349.1
Zhang Y, Feng M, Du Y, Phillips HE, Bindoff NL, McPhaden MJ (2018b) Strengthened Indonesian Throughflow drives decadal warming in the southern Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 45(12):6167–6175. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078265
Zhao X, Allen RJ (2019) Strengthening of the Walker Circulation in recent decades and the role of natural sea surface temperature variability. Environ Res Commun 1(2):021003. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab0dab
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge support from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). SD also acknowledges support from the UNSW Tuition Fee Scholarship Scheme. AST acknowledges support from the ARC Future Fellowship (FT160100495). AS is supported by Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), a joint research centre between QNLM and CSIRO, and the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program. KJM acknowledges funding from the ARC Discovery Program (DP180100048). Computational resources were provided by the NCI National Facility at the Australian National University, through awards under the Merit Allocation Scheme, the Intersect Allocation Scheme, and the UNSW HPC at NCI Scheme.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the design of the experiments, discussions, and interpretation of the results. SD ran the simulations, performed the analysis, and wrote the manuscript. All authors contributed to the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dhame, S., Taschetto, A.S., Santoso, A. et al. Indian Ocean warming modulates global atmospheric circulation trends. Clim Dyn 55, 2053–2073 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05369-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05369-1