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Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting

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Abstract

This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981–2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

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Notes

  1. http://chfps.cima.fcen.uba.ar/ Accessed 12 September 2016.

  2. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ Accessed 12 September.

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Acknowledgements

This work was done with a collaborative effort at JMA and MRI, and we acknowledge M. Hosaka, H. Kawai, H. Tsujino, S. Yukimoto, H. Yoshimura at MRI for their support to the model development. We would thank anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful and constructive comments to improve the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0052, Japan

    Yuhei Takaya, Takahiro Toyoda, Yosuke Fujii, Goro Yamanaka, Tsurane Kuragano, Shuhei Maeda & Tomoaki Ose

  2. Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-8122, Japan

    Shoji Hirahara, Tamaki Yasuda, Satoko Matsueda, Hiroyuki Sugimoto, Chihiro Matsukawa, Ichiro Ishikawa, Hirotoshi Mori, Ryoji Nagasawa, Yutaro Kubo & Akihiko Shimpo

  3. Okinawa Regional Headquarters, Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-15-15 Higawa, Naha-shi, Okinawa, 900-8517, Japan

    Noriyuki Adachi

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  1. Yuhei Takaya
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Takaya, Y., Hirahara, S., Yasuda, T. et al. Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting. Clim Dyn 50, 751–765 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3638-5

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