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Intra-seasonal variability of extreme boreal stratospheric polar vortex events and their precursors

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Abstract

The dynamical variability of the boreal stratospheric polar vortex has been usually analysed considering the extended winter as a whole or only focusing on December, January and February. Yet recent studies have found intra-seasonal differences in the boreal stratospheric dynamics. In this study, the intra-seasonal variability of anomalous wave activity preceding polar vortex extremes in the Northern Hemisphere is examined using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Weak (WPV) and strong (SPV) polar vortex events are grouped into early, mid- or late winter sub-periods depending on the onset date. Overall, the strongest (weakest) wave-activity anomalies preceding polar vortex extremes are found in mid- (early) winter. Most of WPV (SPV) events in early winter occur under the influence of east (west) phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and an enhancement (inhibition) of wavenumber-1 wave activity (WN1). Mid- and late winter WPV events are preceded by a strong vortex and an enhancement of WN1 and WN2, but the spatial structure of the anomalous wave activity and the phase of the QBO are different. Prior to mid-winter WPVs the enhancement of WN2 is related to the predominance of La Niña and linked to blockings over Siberia. Mid-winter SPV events show a negative phase of the Pacific-North America pattern that inhibits WN1 injected into the stratosphere. This study suggests that dynamical features preceding extreme polar vortex events in mid-winter should not be generalized to other winter sub-periods.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to two anonymous reviewers, whose comments help improve this manuscript. This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (grant number CGL2012-34997). BA is supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (grant number NE/M006123/1). MA acknowledges funding from the NASA ACMAP program. The ERA-Interim reanalysis data were obtained online at http://data-portal.ecmwf.int/data/d/interim full moda/. ENSO and QBO indices have been taken from http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_ERSSTv3b.shtml and http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/indices/, respectively.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Geofísica y Meteorología, Facultad de CC. Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain

    Adelaida Díaz-Durán & Encarna Serrano

  2. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

    Blanca Ayarzagüena

  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

    Marta Abalos & Alvaro de la Cámara

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  1. Adelaida Díaz-Durán
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  2. Encarna Serrano
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  3. Blanca Ayarzagüena
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  4. Marta Abalos
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  5. Alvaro de la Cámara
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Correspondence to Adelaida Díaz-Durán.

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Díaz-Durán, A., Serrano, E., Ayarzagüena, B. et al. Intra-seasonal variability of extreme boreal stratospheric polar vortex events and their precursors. Clim Dyn 49, 3473–3491 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3524-1

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