Abstract
We investigate the possible impacts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the occurrence of weak stratospheric polar vortex (WSV) events in the Northern Hemisphere winter. WSV events, which are defined when polar-cap geopotential height anomalies at 50 hPa fall below the 10th percentile in winter, are observed more frequently during positive PDO phases than during negative PDO phases. Additionally, tropospheric wave forcings that drive WSV events are remarkably different between the two phases of the PDO. During the positive PDO phase, the vertical propagation of wavenumber-one waves plays a predominant role with a rather minor contribution of wavenumber-two waves. This contrasts with the negative PDO phase when the WSV events are primarily caused by wavenumber-two waves. This difference is partly related to the PDO-induced tropospheric circulation anomalies over the North Pacific whose zonal wavenumber-one component constructively (destructively) interferes with climatological planetary-scale waves during positive (negative) PDO winters. The predominant wavenumber-two wave forcings during the negative PDO phase are likely related to the enhanced tropospheric eddy activity over Alaska that results from the poleward shift of the Pacific jet in response to the negative PDO.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Andrews DG, Holton JR, Leovy CB (1987) Middle atmosphere dynamics. Academic Press, London, p 489
Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ (1999) Downward propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere. J Geophys Res 104:30937–30946
Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ (2001) Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes. Science 294:581–584. doi:10.1126/science.1063315
Baldwin MP, Thompson DW (2009) A critical comparison of stratosphere–troposphere coupling indices. Q J R Mereorol Soc 135:1661–1672. doi:10.1002/qj.479
Barrippedro D, Calvo N (2014) On the relationship between ENSO, stratospheric sudden warming, and blocking. J Clim 27:4704–4720
Bell CJ, Gray LJ, Charlton-Perez AJ, Joshi MM, Scaife AA (2009) Stratospheric communication of El Nino teleconnections to European winter. J Clim 22:4083–4096. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2717.1
Black RX (2002) Stratospheric forcing of surface climate in the Arctic oscillation. J Clim 15:268–277
Bronnimann S (2007) Impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on European climate. Rev Geophys 45:RG3003. doi:10.1029/2006RG000199
Butler AH, Polvani LM (2011) El Niño, La Niña, and stratospheric sudden warmings: a reevaluation in light of the observational record. Geophys Res Lett 38:L13807. doi:10.1029/2011GL048084
Butler A, Seidel D, Hardiman S, Butchart N, Birner T, Match A (2015) Defining sudden stratospheric warmings. Bull Am Meteor Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00173.1
Charlton AJ, Polvani LM, Perlwitz J, Sassi F, Manzini E, Shibata K, Pawson S, Nielsen JE, Rind D (2007) A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part II: evaluation of numerical model simulations. J Clim 20:470–488
Charron M, Polavarapu S, Buehner M, Vaillancourt PA, Charette C, Roch M, Morneau J, Garand L, Aparicio JM, MacPherson S, Pellerin S, StJames J, Heilliette S (2012) The stratospheric extension of the Canadian global deterministic medium-range weather forecasting system and its impact on tropospheric forecasts. Mon Weather Rev 140:1924–1944
Chen WY, Dool HM (1997) Asymmetric impact of tropical SST anomalies on atmospheric internal variability over the North Pacific. J Atmos Sci 54:725–740
Cohen J, Jones J (2011) Tropospheric precursors and stratospheric warmings. J Clim 25:1779–1790
Cohen J, Salstein D, Saito K (2002) A dynamical framework to understand and predict the major Northern Hemisphere mode. Geophys Res Lett 29(10):1412. doi:10.1029/2001GL014117
Colucci SJ (2001) Planetary-scale preconditioning for the onset of blocking. J Atmos Sci 58:933–942
Compo GP, Sardeshmukh PD, Penland C (2001) Change of subseasonal variability associated with El Nino. J Clim 14:3356–3373
Dunn-Sigouin E, Son SW (2013) Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5 models. J Geophys Res 118:1179–1188
Frankignoul C, Sennechael N (2007) Observed influence of North Pacific SST anomalies on the atmospheric circulation. J Clim 20:592–606
Free M, Seidel DJ (2009) Observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation temperature signal in the stratosphere. J Geophys Res 114:D23108. doi:10.1029/2009JD012420
Garfinkel CI, Hartmann DL (2007) Effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the quasi-biennial oscillation on polar temperatures in the stratosphere. J Geophys Res 112:D19112. doi:10.1029/2007JD008481
Garfinkel CI, Hartmann DL, Sassi F (2010) Tropospheric precursors of anomalous Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortices. J Clim 23:3282–3299. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3010.1
Garfinkel CI, Butler AH, Waugh DW, Hurwitz MM, Polvani LM (2012) Why might stratospheric sudden warmings occur with similar frequency in El Nino and La Nina winters? J Geophys Res Atmos 117:D19106. doi:10.1029/2012JD017777
Gerber EP et al (2012) Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on the earth system. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:845–859. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00145.1
Hartley DE, Villarin J, Black RX, Davis CA (1998) A new perspective on the dynamical link between the stratosphere and troposphere. Nature 391:471–474
Hurwitz MM, Newman PA, Garfinkel CI (2012) On the influence of North Pacific sea surface temperature on the Arctic winter climate. J Geophys Res 117:D19110. doi:10.1029/2012JD017819
Jadin EA, Wei R, Zyalyaeva YA, Wen Chen, Wang L (2010) Stratospheric wave activity and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. J Atmos Solar Terr Phys 72:1163–1170. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2010.07.009
Jin FF, Pan LL, Watanabe M (2006a) Dynamics of synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow interaction, Part I: a linear closure. J Atmos Sci 63:1677–1694
Jin FF, Pan LL, Watanabe M (2006b) Dynamics of synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow interaction, Part II: a theory for low-frequency modes. J Atmos Sci 63:1695–1708
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471
Kim JY, Chun HY, Kang MJ (2014) Changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation for 1980–2009 rvealed in MERRA reanalysis data. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 50(1):625–644
Kolstad EW, Charlton-Perez AJ (2011) Observed and simulated precursors of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim Dyn 37:1443–1456. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0919-7
Kolstad EW, Breiteig T, Scaife AA (2010) The association between stratospheric weak polar vortex events and cold air outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere. Q J R Meteorol Soc 136:886–893. doi:10.1002/qj.620
Kug JS, Jin FF (2009) Left-hand rule for synoptic eddy feedback on low-frequency flow. Geophys Res Lett 36:L05709. doi:10.1029/2008GL036435
Lau NC (1988) Variability of the observed midlatitude storm tracks in relation to low-frequency changes in the circulation pattern. J Atmos Sci 45:2718–2743
Lee YY, Kug JS, Lim GH, Watanabe M (2012) Eastward shift of the Pacific/North American pattern on an interdecadal time scale and associated synoptic eddy feedback. Int J Climatol 32:1128–1134
Limpasuvan V, Thompson DWJ, Hartmann DL (2004) The life cycle of the northern hemisphere sudden stratospheric warmings. J Clim 17:2584–2596
Manzini EM, Giorgetta A, Kornbluth L, Roeckner E (2006) The influence of sea surface temperatures on the northern winter stratosphere: ensemble simulations with the MAECHAM5 model. J Clim 19:3863–3881
Martineau P, Son SW (2013) Planetary-scale wave activity as a source of varying tropospheric response to stratospheric sudden warming events: a case study. J Geophys Res 118:10994–11006
Martius O, Polvani LM, Davies HC (2009) Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events. Geophys Res Lett 36:L14806. doi:10.1029/2009GL038776
Matsuno T (1970) Vertical propagation of stationary planetary waves in the winter Northern Hemisphere. J Atmos Sci 27:871–883
Matsuno T (1971) A dynamical model of stratospheric warmings. J Atmos Sci 28:1479–1494
McCabe GJ, Palecki MA, Betancourt JL (2004) Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci 101:4136–4141
Mitchell DM, Gray LJ, Anstey J, Baldwin MP, Charlton-Perez AJ (2013) The influence of stratospheric vortex displacements and splits on surface climate. J Clim 26:2668–2682
Nishii K, Nakamura H, Miyasaka T (2009) Modulations in the planetary wave field induced by upward propagating Rossby wave packets prior to stratospheric sudden warming events: a case-study. Q J R Meteorol Soc 135(638):39–52. doi:10.1002/qj.359
Nishii K, Nakamura H, Orsolini YJ (2010) Cooling of the wintertime Arctic stratosphere induced by the western Pacific teleconnection pattern. Geophys Res Lett 37:L13805. doi:10.1029/2010GL043551
Perlwitz J, Harnik N (2004) Downward coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere: the relative roles of wave and zonal mean processes. J Clim 17:4902–4909
Polvani LM, Waugh DW (2004) Upward wave activity flux as a precursor to extreme stratospheric events and subsequent anomalous surface weather regimes. J Clim 17:3548–3554
Renwick JA, Wallace JM (1996) Relationships between North Pacific winter time blocking, El Nino and the PNA pattern. Mon Weather Rev 124:2071–2076
Sassi F, Kinnison D, Bolville BA, Garcia RR, Roble R (2004) Effect of El-Nino Southern Oscillation on the dynamical, thermal, and chemical structure of the middle atmosphere. J Geophys Res 109:D17108. doi:10.1029/2003JD004434
Shutts GJ (1983) The propagation of eddies in diffluent jetstreams: eddy vorticity forcing of ‘blocking’ flow fields. Q J R Meteorol Soc 109:737–761
Sigmond M, Scinocca JF, Kharin VV, Shepherd TG (2013) Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings. Nat Geosci 6:98–102
Smith KL, Fletcher CG, Kushner PJ (2010) The role of linear interference in the annular mode response to extratropical surface forcing. J Clim 23:6036–6050. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3606.1
Stan C, Straus DM (2009) Stratospheric predictability and sudden stratospheric warming events. J Geophys Res 114:D12103. doi:10.1029/2008JD011277
Taguchi M, Hartmann DL (2006) Increased occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming during El Nino as simulated by WAACM. J Clim 19(324):332. doi:10.1175/JCLI3655.1
Taguchi B, Nakamura H, Nonaka M, Komori N, Kuwano-Yoshida A, Takaya K, Goto A (2012) Seasonal evolutions of atmospheric response to decadal SST anomalies in the North Pacific subarctic frontal zone: observations and a coupled model simulation. J Clim 25:111–139
Thompson DWJ, Baldwin MP, Wallace JM (2002) Stratospheric connection to Northern Hemisphere wintertime weather: implications for prediction. J Clim 15:1421–1428
Tripathi O, Baldwin M, Charlton-Perez A, Charron M, Eckermann S, Gerber E, Harrison RG, Jackson DR, Kim BM, Kuroda Y, Lang A, Lee C, Mahmood S, Mizuta R, Roff G, Sigmond M, Son SW (2014) The predictability of the extra-tropical stratosphere on monthly timescales and its impacts on the skill of tropospheric forecasts. Q J R Meteorol Soc. doi:10.1002/qj.2432
Yun KS, Seo YW, Ha KJ, Lee JY, Kajikawa Y (2014) Interdecadal changes in the Asian winter monsoon variability and its relationship with ENSO and AO. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 50(4):531–540
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by National Research Foundation (NRF-2014R1A2A2A01003827). SWS is partly supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as “Climate Change Correspondence Program”. MKS is supported by KOPRI (PE15010).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Woo, SH., Sung, MK., Son, SW. et al. Connection between weak stratospheric vortex events and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Clim Dyn 45, 3481–3492 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2551-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2551-z