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Using multi-model ensembles to improve the simulated effects of land use/cover change on temperature: a case study over northeast China

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Abstract

Rather than simulating the effects of land use and land cover change (LUCC) on the climate using one climate model, as in many previous studies, three regional climate models (Regional Climate Model, version 3; the Weather Research and Forecasting model; and the Regional Integrated Environmental Model System) were used in the present study to simulate changes in temperature due to LUCC. Two experiments (CTL and NE) were designed and run using the three regional climate models. The CTL experiment was used to compare the simulations of the different models and served to illustrate the improvement that could be achieved as a result of employing a multi-model ensemble. The NE experiment was used to evaluate the changes in temperature caused by LUCC in northeast China between 1981 and 2000. The results of the CTL simulations showed that changes in temperature were simulated well by the three regional climate models; however, the simulated temperatures were different, dependent on the model used. The multi-model ensembles [the arithmetic ensemble mean (AEM) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA)] attained better results than any individual model. Of the two ensemble methods, BMA performed better than the AEM. The effects of LUCC on the climate in northeast China were assessed by the differences between the CTL and NE simulations for every RCM and the ensemble simulations. The BMA simulations produced more reasonable results than the other simulations. Based on the results, we can state with some confidence that LUCC in northeast China over the 20-year period studied caused a decrease in temperature, because of an expansion of arable land.

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Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the National Key Scientific Project (2012CB95570000 and 2010CB950903) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41330527, 41271066 and 91425304).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Forestry/Research Station of Liaohe-River Plain Forest Ecosystem, CFERN, Shenyang Agriculture University, Shenyang, 110866, China

    Xianliang Zhang

  2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 10087, China

    Xianliang Zhang & Xiaodong Yan

  3. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East-Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Zhe Xiong

  4. Institute of Geographic and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Xuezhen Zhang, Jiyuan Liu & Quanqin Shao

  5. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

    Ying Shi

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  1. Xianliang Zhang
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  2. Zhe Xiong
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  3. Xuezhen Zhang
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  4. Ying Shi
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Correspondence to Xiaodong Yan.

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Zhang, X., Xiong, Z., Zhang, X. et al. Using multi-model ensembles to improve the simulated effects of land use/cover change on temperature: a case study over northeast China. Clim Dyn 46, 765–778 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2611-4

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