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How much of the NAO monthly variability is from ocean–atmospheric coupling: results from an interactive ensemble climate model

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Abstract

The chaotic atmospheric circulations and the ocean–atmosphere coupling may both cause variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This study uses an interactive ensemble (IE) coupled model to study the contribution of the atmospheric noise and coupling to the monthly variability of the NAO. In the IE model, seven atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) realizations with different initial states are coupled with a single realization of the land, ocean and ice component models. The chaotic noise from the atmosphere at the air-sea interface is therefore reduced. The time variances of monthly NAO index in the ensemble AGCM mean of the IE model is found to be about 20.1 % of that in the SC model. Therefore, more than 79.9 % of the simulated monthly variability of NAO is caused by atmospheric noise. The coupling between sea surface temperature (SST) and NAO is only found in regions south of about 40°N in the North Atlantic Ocean. The IE strategy highlighted the interaction between the NAO and the SST in the region (28°–38°N, 20°W–50°W) to the southeast of the Gulf Stream extension. While the ocean–atmosphere coupling explains <1/5th of the NAO variability in the IE model, it shows slightly larger persistence than the SC model, consistent with the hypothesis of a slower mode of variability from ocean–atmosphere coupling that has larger predictability than the variability driven by the atmosphere.

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Acknowledgments

This research is supported by the Major National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) on Global Change (2010CB951903 and 2010CB951800). Additional supported is provided by the Biological and Environmental Research Division in the Office of Sciences of the US Department of Energy (DOE), the National Science Foundation to the Stony Brook University, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41105054, 41205053, 61361120098, 51190101), and the China Meteorological Administration (GYHY201306048).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

    Xiaoge Xin & Jie Zhang

  2. Department of Computer Science and Technology, and Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

    Wei Xue, Huimin Li & Tao Zhang

  3. School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA

    Minghua Zhang

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  1. Xiaoge Xin
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  2. Wei Xue
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  3. Minghua Zhang
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  4. Huimin Li
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  5. Tao Zhang
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Correspondence to Minghua Zhang.

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Xin, X., Xue, W., Zhang, M. et al. How much of the NAO monthly variability is from ocean–atmospheric coupling: results from an interactive ensemble climate model. Clim Dyn 44, 781–790 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2246-x

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