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Distinctive precursory air–sea signals between regular and super El Niños

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Abstract

Statistically different precursory air–sea signals between a super and a regular El Niño group are investigated, using observed SST and rainfall data, and oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data. The El Niño events during 1958–2008 are first separated into two groups: a super El Niño group (S-group) and a regular El Niño group (R-group). Composite analysis shows that a significantly larger SST anomaly (SSTA) tendency appears in S-group than in R-group during the onset phase [April–May(0)], when the positive SSTA is very small. A mixed-layer heat budget analysis indicates that the tendency difference arises primarily from the difference in zonal advective feedback and the associated zonal current anomaly (u′). This is attributed to the difference in the thermocline depth anomaly (D′) over the off-equatorial western Pacific prior to the onset phase, as revealed by three ocean assimilation products. Such a difference in D′ is caused by the difference in the wind stress curl anomaly in situ, which is mainly regulated by the anomalous SST and precipitation over the Maritime Continent and equatorial Pacific.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change, and Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Lin Chen & Tim Li

  2. International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, 2525 Correa Rd., Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA

    Lin Chen & Tim Li

  3. Application Laboratory, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan

    Swadhin K. Behera & Takeshi Doi

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  1. Lin Chen
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Correspondence to Tim Li.

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Chen, L., Li, T., Behera, S.K. et al. Distinctive precursory air–sea signals between regular and super El Niños. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 33, 996–1004 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-5250-8

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