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Dynamical analysis of an age-structured SEIR model with relapse

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Abstract

Mathematical models play a crucial role in controlling and preventing the spread of diseases. Based on the communication characteristics of diseases, it is necessary to take into account some essential epidemiological factors such as the time delay that takes an individual to progress from being latent to become infectious, the infectious age which refers to the duration since the initial infection and the occurrence of reinfection after a period of improvement known as relapse, etc. Moreover, age-structured models serve as a powerful tool that allows us to incorporate age variables into the modeling process to better understand the effect of these factors on the transmission mechanism of diseases. In this paper, motivated by the above fact, we reformulate an SEIR model with relapse and age structure in both latent and infected classes. Then, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the model by using the stability theory of differential equations. For this purpose, we introduce the basic reproduction number \(\mathcal {R}_0\) of the model and show that this threshold parameter completely governs the stability of each equilibrium of the model. Our approach to show global attractivity is based on the fluctuation lemma and Lyapunov functionals method with some results on the persistence theory. The conclusion is that the system has a disease-free equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable if \(\mathcal {R}_0<1\), while it has only a unique positive endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable whenever \(\mathcal {R}_0>1\). Our results imply that early diagnosis of latent infection with decrease in both transmission and relapse rates may lead to control and restrict the spread of disease. The theoretical results are illustrated with numerical simulations, which indicate that the age variable is an essential factor affecting the spread of the epidemic.

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Acknowledgements

I would like to thank the anonymous referees for their comments which contributed to improve this paper.

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  1. Department of Mathematics and Computer Systems, Laboratory of Mathematics, and Informatic Systems (LAMIS), University of Tebessa, Tebessa, 12000, Algeria

    Abderrazak NABTi

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NABTi, A. Dynamical analysis of an age-structured SEIR model with relapse. Z. Angew. Math. Phys. 75, 84 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00033-024-02227-6

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