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Scenario-Based Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Xianshuihe Fault Zone, Southwest China

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Abstract

The Xianshuihe fault zone consists of left-lateral, segmented strike-slip faults, which produce strong and relatively frequent earthquakes, and exposes millions of people to the risk of strong motion and earthquake-induced geologic hazards in Southwest China. Seismicity in this fault zone exhibits typical features of characteristic earthquakes. The stochastic finite-fault model was used to generate time-histories and peak values of strong ground motion at near-fault locations for the characteristic earthquakes. First, the source parameters were determined and verified by comparing them with the simulated time-histories and intensity distribution and observations from the 2014 Kangding earthquake (M w 6.0). Then, scenario-based ground-motion hazard maps were produced from simulated ground motions of characteristic earthquakes. The scenario-based ground-motion hazard maps can be directly compared with historical and future earthquakes in the Xianshuihe fault zone. Scenario-based seismic hazard analysis also has other advantages. Our results show that current design ground motion for the Xianshuihe Fault area is not adequate.

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Modified from Ran (2014)

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by research grants from the Institute of Crustal Dynamics of the China Earthquake Administration (No. ZDJ2015-03), Beijing Natural Science Foundation(8174078) and the China Scholarship Council. The strong ground-motion data were provided by the China Strong Motion Network Centre at the Institute of Engineering Mechanics of the China Earthquake Administration. Meg Smath of the Kentucky Geological Survey helped to edit this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin, China

    Lifang Zhang & Shanyou Li

  2. Kentucky Geological Survey, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, 40506, USA

    N. Seth Carpenter & Zhenming Wang

  3. Institute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China

    Lifang Zhang & Yuejun Lyu

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  1. Lifang Zhang
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Correspondence to Lifang Zhang.

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Zhang, L., Seth Carpenter, N., Wang, Z. et al. Scenario-Based Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Xianshuihe Fault Zone, Southwest China. Pure Appl. Geophys. 175, 707–720 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1686-8

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