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An Assessment of Forecast Skill of an Atmospheric Meso-scale Model in Simulating the Observed Contrasts in Meteorological Fields for Foggy and Non-foggy Days

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Abstract

Major challenges in modelling and forecasting fog are determining the accuracies needed in simulation of meteorological fields that determine the dynamics of fog. In particular, the meso-scale forecasts need to be tested for their ability to distinguish between foggy and non-foggy days for the important variables like wind, humidity and temperature. We evaluate forecasts from a meso-scale atmospheric model over Delhi (28°35′N; 77°12′E), a fog fog-prone metropolis, during the months December and January through 2009–2012. A comparison of composites of hourly forecasts of the meteorological fields of area-averaged 1° × 1° (28°35′N; 77°12′E) surface wind, low-level humidity and air temperatures for the observed foggy and non-foggy days shows that the forecasts do show lower winds, higher humidity and lower temperature in general for foggy days consistent with the known physical conditions for formation of fog over the region. Comparison of differences in simulated meteorological variables for days with no fog, mild fog and dense fog (characterized in terms of hourly visibility) with the corresponding values from observation show consistent and appreciable distinctions in the meteorological variables The contrasts are also found to persist at 850 mb pressure level in both observed and the simulated profiles; once again the observed vertical profiles have distinct characteristics for December and January that are simulated well by the model. Identification of these contrasts can help to calibrate model configuration and to quantify accuracy required in the meteorological forecasts for driving fog prediction models.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the project “High Resolution Regional Atmospheric Analysis (HiRRA)”, funded by CSIR, Government of India. The high-performance computing (HPC) facility of CSIR Centre for Mathematical modeling and Computer Simulation (CSIR-4PI) has been used for computing. The hourly visibility data and the fog satellite imageries were downloaded from India Meteorological Department (IMD) website http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/fogvis1.html. The radiosonde observations were taken from Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming (http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html) at 00 UTC over Safdurjung airport, Delhi.

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  1. CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation (Repositioned as CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute), Wind Tunnel Road, Bangalore, 560037, India

    Sumana Sarkar

  2. CSIR National Institute for Science, Technology and Development Studies, Delhi, India

    Prashant Goswami

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  1. Sumana Sarkar
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  2. Prashant Goswami
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Correspondence to Prashant Goswami.

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Sarkar, S., Goswami, P. An Assessment of Forecast Skill of an Atmospheric Meso-scale Model in Simulating the Observed Contrasts in Meteorological Fields for Foggy and Non-foggy Days. Pure Appl. Geophys. 174, 2827–2845 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1537-7

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