Skip to main content

Tests for a Structural Break for Nonnegative Integer-Valued Time Series

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Research Papers in Statistical Inference for Time Series and Related Models
  • 323 Accesses

Abstract

We investigate tests for a structural break for nonnegative integer-valued time series. This topic has been intensively studied in recent years. We deal with the model whose conditional expectation is endowed with dependence structures. Unknown parameters of the model are estimated by an M-estimator. Then, we study three types of test statistics: the Wald type, score type, and residual type. First, we show the asymptotic null distributions of these three test statistics, which enable us to construct asymptotically size \(\alpha \) tests. Next, we show the consistency of the tests, that is, the power of the tests converges to one as sample size increases. Finally, numerical study illustrates the finite-sample performance of the tests.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 189.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 249.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 249.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Agosto, A., Cavaliere, G., Kristensen, D. and Rahbek, A. (2016). Modeling corporate defaults: Poisson autoregressions with exogenous covariates (PARX). J Empirical Finance 38 640–663.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Ahmad, A. and Francq, C. (2016). Poisson QMLE of count time series models. J Time Series Anal 37 291–314.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  3. Aknouche, A. and Francq, C. (2020). Count and duration time series with equal conditional stochastic and mean orders. Econom Theory 37 248–280.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  4. Aknouche, A., Bendjeddou, S. and Touche, N. (2018). Negative binomial quasi-likelihood inference for general integer-valued time series models. J Time Series Anal 39 192–211.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  5. Berkes, I., Horváth, L. and Kokoszka, P. (2004). Testing for parameter constancy in GARCH\((p, q)\) models. Statist Prob Lett 70 263–273.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  6. Billinsley, P. (1999). Convergence of Probability Measures. 2nd edn, New York: Wiley.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  7. Cui, Y., Wu, R. and Zheng, Q. (2020). Estimation of change-point for a class of count time series models. Scand J Statist 48 1277–1313.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  8. Davis, R. A. and Liu, H. (2016). Theory and inference for a class of nonlinear models with application to time series of counts. Stat Sin 26 1673–1707.

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  9. Diop, M. L. and Kengne, W. (2017). Testing parameter change in general integer-valued time series. J Time Series Anal 38 880–894.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  10. Diop, M. L. and Kengne, W. (2022). Poisson QMLE for change-point detection in general integer-valued time series models. Metrika 85 373–403.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  11. Doukhan, P. and Kengne, W. (2015). Inference and testing for structural change in general Poisson autoregressive models. Electron J Statist 9 1267–1314.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  12. Doukhan, P., Fokianos, K. and Tjøstheim, D. (2013). Correction to “On weak dependence conditions for Poisson autoregressions” [Statist. Probab. Lett. 82 (2012) 942–948]. Statist Probab Lett 83 1926–1927.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  13. Ferland, R., Latour, A. and Oraichi, D. (2006). Integer-valued GARCH process. J Time Series Anal 27 923–942.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  14. Fokianos, K., Rahbek, A. and Tjøstheim, D. (2009). Poisson autoregression. J Amer Statist Assoc 104 1430–1439.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Franke, J., Kirch, C. and Kamgaing, J. T. (2012). Changepoints in times series of counts. J Time Series Anal 33 757–770.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  16. Goto, Y. and Fujimori, K. (2023). Test for conditional variance of integer-valued time series. to appear in Stat Sin 33.

    Google Scholar 

  17. Hudecová, Š., Hušková, M. and Meintanis, S. G. (2017). Tests for structural changes in time series of counts. Scand J Statist 44 843–865.

    Google Scholar 

  18. Iacus, S. M. (2016). sde: Simulation and inference for stochastic differential equations. URL https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=sde, R package version 2.0.15

  19. Kang, J. and Lee, S. (2014). Parameter change test for Poisson autoregressive models. Scand J Statist 41 1136–1152.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  20. Latour, A. (1997). The multivariate GINAR\((p)\) process. Adv Appl Probab 29 228–248.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  21. Lee, S., Ha, J., Na, O. and Na, S. (2003). The cusum test for parameter change in time series models. Scand J Statist 30 781–796.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  22. Lee, S., Lee, Y. and Chen, C. W. (2016). Parameter change test for zero-inflated generalized Poisson autoregressive models. Statistics 50 540–557.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  23. Lee, Y. and Lee, S. (2019). CUSUM test for general nonlinear integer-valued GARCH models: comparison study. Ann Inst Statist Math 71 1033–1057.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  24. Lee, Y., Lee, S. and Tjøstheim, D. (2018). Asymptotic normality and parameter change test for bivariate Poisson INGARCH models. Test 27 52–69.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  25. Negri, I. and Nishiyama, Y. (2017). Z-process method for change point problems with applications to discretely observed diffusion processes. Stat Methods Appt 26 231–250.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  26. Neumann, M. H. (2011). Absolute regularity and ergodicity of Poisson count processes. Bernoulli 17 1268–1284.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  27. Nishiyama, Y. (2021). Martingale Methods in Statistics. Chapman and Hall/CRC.

    Google Scholar 

  28. Oh, H. and Lee, S. (2018). On score vector-and residual-based CUSUM tests in ARMA–GARCH models. Stat Methods Appt 27 385–406.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  29. Oh, H. and Lee, S. (2019). Modified residual CUSUM test for location-scale time series models with heteroscedasticity. Ann Inst Statist Math 71 1059–1091.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  30. Page, E. (1955). A test for a change in a parameter occurring at an unknown point. Biometrika 42 523–527.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  31. Parker, M. R. P., Li, Y., Elliott, L. T., Ma, J. and Cowen, L. L. E. (2021). Under-reporting of COVID-19 in the Northern Health Authority region of British Columbia. Can J Stat 49 1018–1038.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  32. Pedeli, X., Davison, A. C. and Fokianos, K. (2015). Likelihood estimation for the INAR\((p)\) model by saddlepoint approximation. J Amer Statist Assoc 110 1229–1238.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  33. Schmidt, A. M. and Pereira, J. B. M. (2011). Modelling time series of counts in epidemiology. Int Stat Rev 79 48–69.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Wang, C., Liu, H., Yao, J.-F., Davis, R. A. and Li, W. K. (2014). Self-excited threshold Poisson autoregression. J Amer Statist Assoc 109 777–787.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The author would like to express my deepest gratitude to Professor Masanobu Taniguchi for all your support. Your kind and warm guidance always encouraged the author very much. The author is so proud of being your last disciple. The author is grateful to the editors and referee for their instructive comments. The author would also like to thank Doctor Yan Liu and Doctor Akitoshi Kimura for their encouragements and comments. This research was supported by Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Research Fellow Grant Number JP201920060 and Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up JP21K20338.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yuichi Goto .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Goto, Y. (2023). Tests for a Structural Break for Nonnegative Integer-Valued Time Series. In: Liu, Y., Hirukawa, J., Kakizawa, Y. (eds) Research Papers in Statistical Inference for Time Series and Related Models. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-0803-5_7

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics