Abstract
Both climatology and hydrology are involved in trend analysis to investigate climate change scenarios and improve the efficiency of climate impact studies. The long-term variation in precipitation, temperature, humidity, evaporation, wind speed, and other meteorological factors is referred to as climatic variability for an area. The purpose of this study was to investigate and estimate the relevance of the possible trend of variables such as rainfall in the Mindhola River Basin in the Bardoli Taluka of Gujarat's Surat District. The study's objective is to look at rainfall variability in the Mindhola River Basin for the next 30 years, from 1990 to 2020. Innovative trend analysis (ITA) for rainfall variability in the Mindhola River Basin was used to conduct a rainfall trend analysis on a monthly, seasonal, and annual basis in this study. The ITA approach could discover some trends that the MK test would miss. This test was used to determine the magnitude and direction of a current trend over time. This will give an understanding about rainfall trends or changes. This study also includes the drought analysis of rainfall using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In this study, SPI values and SPI plots are prepared in the RStudio software. The monthly, seasonal, and annual trends of precipitation for Bardoli region are in monotonic increasing trends or it is best fitted for the region. The drought study on the basis of rainfall suggests that at present, Bardoli region may not affected by the severe drought because it lies in near normal condition or moderately wet condition. This study helps policymakers, managers, and local authorities in taking protective measures for drought.
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Patel, P., Mehta, D., Waikhom, S., Patel, K. (2023). Analysis of Rainfall Variability and Drought Over Bardoli Region. In: Timbadiya, P.V., Singh, V.P., Sharma, P.J. (eds) Climate Change Impact on Water Resources. HYDRO 2021. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, vol 313. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-8524-9_20
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