Abstract
This chapter presents an application of the 1st order Markov model to the description of flood-poor and flood-rich period length. The flood-poor and flood-rich periods are defined as a sequence of successive years with maximum flows lower (for flood-poor) or greater (for flood-rich) than the specified threshold. The theoretical distributions for two chosen thresholds (median and upper quartile) are compared with empirical distributions for the series of annual flow maxima at Warsaw gauging station, representative for the Middle Vistula River reach, in order to determine an indicator for the assessment of changes in flood regime under the future climate. The results have shown that serial dependency in Warsaw maximum flow series—the longest series in Poland—is rather weak and the run length distributions are not significantly affected by this dependency. The longest flood-poor period of 19 years has been found for the upper quartile threshold.
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Acknowledgments
This work was partly supported by the project “Stochastic flood forecasting system (The River Vistula reach from Zawichost to Warsaw)” on the order of the National Science Centre (contract No. 2011/01/B/ST10/06866) and partly by the Polish Norwegian Research Programme project CHIHE (Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013), both carried by the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences. The water level and flow data were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.
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Bogdanowicz, E., Strupczewski, W.G., Kochanek, K. (2015). On the Run Length in Annual Maximum Flow Series in the Middle Vistula Basin in the Context of Climate Change Impact. In: Romanowicz, R., Osuch, M. (eds) Stochastic Flood Forecasting System. GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-18854-6_3
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