Trends and Effects of Climate Change on Reindeer Husbandry in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

Abstract

The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), like other Arctic regions, faces severe climatic and environmental changes and hazards such as temperature increase, permafrost thaw, intense forest fires, earlier melting, and flooding. Significant climate and environmental changes over the past decades pose risks to the preservation of the traditional way of life of Indigenous peoples, including reindeer husbandry. Understanding trends and effects of climate change in the Republic of Sakha is needed to project and manage the future of reindeer husbandry, the resilience of Indigenous communities, and plan their economic adaptation. In this article, we analyze meteorological data from four weather stations located in different reindeer herding areas of Yakutia focusing on snow cover formation, permafrost conditions, and forest fires; provide the results of in-depth interviews with local people on the impact of climate change on reindeer herding. The financing of resilience development in the Republic is discussed. In conclusion, suggest necessary measures that can be taken for adaptation and overcoming emerging threats and challenges for further development of reindeer husbandry which is the central basis of the identity of the Indigenous peoples of the North.

7.1 Introduction

The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) is located in the north-eastern part of the Eurasian continent and is the largest region of the Russian Federation. The Republic stretches from the Henrietta Islands in the far north to the Stanovoi mountain range in the south, covering 3.1 million km². It has some of the coldest climates and temperature extremes on the planet (where humans live permanently), some of the largest undisturbed habitats on Earth with rich and diverse biodiversity (protected areas cover approximately 37% of the territory), and traditional Indigenous livelihoods such as reindeer herding which have been practiced for centuries. The Sakha Republic is also a world hotspot for industrial development – the economy is based on the extractive industry. The region is extremely rich in natural resources - Yakutia accounts for 26% of the world’s diamonds, 5% of tin, 4.5% of antimony, 3.4% of uranium, 2% of iron ore, and 2.5% of the world’s forests. Some of the largest megaprojects in oil, gas, and mining are being developed in the region, particularly within South Yakutia. The territory of Yakutia is situated within four geographical zones: taiga forests (almost 80% of the area), tundra, forest tundra, and Arctic desert.

The Republic of Sakha consists of 35 political units, including 34 districts (ulus) and 1 city, Yakutsk. 990,538 people live within Yakutia (Rosstat, 2020) with an urban-rural population ratio of 65.45%: 34.55%.

Climate and economic factors have influenced settlement patterns, with the south of Yakutia experiencing a higher population density than the north. The density is one of the lowest in the Russian Federation, at 0.32 person per km².

The region is ethnically very diverse, ethnic Sakha (Yakuts) make up the majority of the population (49.9%), followed by Russian (37.8%), Ukrainian (2.2%), Evenki (2.2%), Even (1.6%), Tatar (0.9%), Dolgan (0.2%), Yukagir (0.13%) and Chukchi (0.07%). The total population loss of the Republic from 1990 to 2020 was 12.6%. After a period of demographic decrease during the economic reforms of the 1990s and early 2000s, the population has been increasing, including a steady natural growth of the Sakha, Evenki, and Even populations, and a decrease in Russian, Ukrainian and Tatar populations (due to out-migration).

Indigenous small-numbered peoples of the North by special decree of Russia (List of Indigenous small-numbered peoples of the North, Siberia, and the Far East of the Russian Federation, 2016) are represented by Evenki (2.2%), Even (1.6%), Dolgan (0.2%), Yukaghir (0.13%) and Chukchi (0.07%). According to the 2010 census data, the number of the Indigenous peoples of the North has increased, but the increase was much lower than in 1989–2002. A distinctive feature of the demographic model of the Indigenous peoples of the North in the previous decades was a relatively high birth rate and a high death rate. At present, northern peoples are experiencing a decline in the birth rate due to demographic transition, assimilation processes, and other factors.

Reindeer husbandry remains the main type of traditional economic activity of the small-numbered Indigenous peoples of the North residing in the Arctic regions of Yakutia. At the same time, there is an annual decrease in the number of reindeer in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), the small number of reindeer herds makes most of the traditional husbandry unprofitable. The main economic problems include extreme climatic conditions, lack of infrastructure, including transportation, that plays a significant role in these areas, as well as the small number of settlements. It is necessary to understand the scale of the task of managing such a huge region with a small population. Economic development is very much limited by competitive disadvantages, such as northern price increases for all goods and resources. Transportation costs are particularly high in the region.

7.2 Changes in Climatic Parameters in Yakutia’s Reindeer Herding Areas

The climate of Russia in general, and the climate of Yakutia, in particular, are undergoing significant changes. The warming continues in the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as in the whole world, and its rate of temperature increase is much higher than the global average. The average increase rate of the mean annual air temperature in Russia from 1976 to 2019 was 0.47 °C per decade, according to the Federal State Budgetary Institution (IGCE). This is more than 2.5 times higher than the increase rate of the global temperature over the same period, which is 0.18 °C per decade, and more than 1.5 times higher than the average rate of the surface air warming over the Earth’s land areas, which is 0.28 °C per decade (estimates from the Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia). The global mean temperature of each subsequent decade since 1980 exceeded the temperature of the previous one. The temperature of the northern polar region has increased most rapidly, especially in recent decades: according to the Federal State Budgetary Institution AARI over the past 30 years (1990–2019), the average annual temperature increase was 0.81 °C per decade, i.e., 2.43 °C in 30 years (RosHydroMet, 2020).

In the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, a warming trend has remained since the 1990s: milder winters; the duration of the growing season has increased; new absolute temperature records (2–4 °C); there is an increase in precipitation, including snow; in several places, the thickness of the snow cover is growing; surface wind speed is increasing everywhere; in the water area of the Arctic Ocean, the areas of perennial ice and their thickness have decreased (by almost 40%); over the coast and archipelagos, anticyclonic processes began to prevail in the atmosphere.

Lobanov and Kirillina (2019) identified spring and autumn maxima of temperature non-stationarity in the territory of Yakutia: spring-summer in the south and autumn-winter in the northeast. The area of greatest non-stationarity begins to form in April in the southeast of Yakutia, then it increases sharply and in June it covers more than half of the territory of Yakutia. In October, non-stationarity appears in the northeast, and in November it covers the entire northeast part of the territory (Fig. 7.1).

Fig. 7.1

Map of the four analyzed weather stations in Yakutia. The colors indicate the mean 2m temperature for the years 1980–2019, based on ERA5 data

The time series of the yearly mean maximum and minimum summer temperatures for all four stations are presented in Fig. 7.2. One can see that the minimum temperature is especially increasing, which can be assumed to be the night temperature.

Fig. 7.2

Yearly means of maximum and minimum summer temperatures (June–August)

Four weather stations, located in four reindeer herding areas of Yakutia, were identified to analyze snow cover, precipitation, and air temperature: Nizhnekolymsky (Ambarchik station), Anabarsky (Saskylakh station), Tomponsky (Tompo station) and Aldansky (Kanku station). The location of the stations is shown in Fig. 7.1, where colours show mean air temperature averaged over 1980–2019 taken from the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset (Sabater, 2019).

The Ambarchik station is located on the southern shore of the Ambarchik Bay in the East Siberian Sea, east of the mouth of the Kolyma River, 100 km northeast of the Chersky settlement. The station is 25 m above sea level. The terrain is flat (Primorsky Lowland), swampy, and has a surface full of small, rounded lakes. The terrain gets hilly 3–4 km south of the station. The vegetation cover is scarce, composed of mosses, lichens, and low herbaceous vegetation. Meteorological observations at the station began in 1933.

The Saskylakh station is located in the north of the Central Siberian Plateau, on the right bank of the Anabar River, 4 km south of the Saskylakh settlement. The width of the Anabar River valley near the station is 8 km. The station is 17 m above sea level. The relief is flat and hilly; the underlying surface is marshy and rich in lakes. The station is located at the northern border of the forest-tundra; the surrounding terrain is covered with rare low larch forests, shrubs, and sedges. Meteorological observations at the station began in 1933.

The Tompo station is located in the foothills of the Verkhoyansk Range, in the valley of the central Tompo River, where the tributary Khunhandy runs into it. The station is 380 m above sea level. The valley of the Tompo River near the station is 4–6 km wide. The terrain of the area is comprised of large hills; the height of certain hills reaches 300–400 m above the valley level. Vegetation consists of coniferous larch-dominated forests. Deciduous forests and shrubs grow along river valleys and the valleys between the mountains, while the floodplain is filled with flood meadows. Meteorological observations at the station began in 1933.

The Kanku station is located in the southern part of the Aldan Plateau, at the upper Kurung-Hoonku River (left tributary of the Timpton River), 1204 m above sea level. The relief is dissected and hilly, with hills and plantations covered with larch forest mixed with shrubs and birch. Meteorological observations at the station began in 1949 (Izyumenko, 1972).

The authors applied the following criteria to select stations for climate change analysis:

• The stations are located in the reindeer husbandry areas in the tundra and taiga zones, at a sufficient distance from major settlements.

• The stations have a long history of observations and are included in available databases.

Daily data from the Saskylakh, Ambarchik, Tompo, and Kanku stations for the entire period of observations (mean, maximum, and minimum temperature, precipitation) from the All-Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre Database were used to analyze changes in air temperature and precipitation (RosHydroMet, 2020).

The general temperature trend (see Table 7.1) for all the stations under examination is positive. All trends were tested for statistical significance at the 5% level using the Student’s t-test. The largest increase can be found for all stations in spring (March–May, MAM) and autumn (September–November, SON). The winter months (December–February, DJF) show the lowest temperature increase (not statistically significant).

Table 7.1 Average annual and seasonal air temperature increase rate from 1980 to 2019 [°C/10 years]

Territorial differences can be explained by the nature of atmospheric circulation, in particular by the more frequent landfalls of cyclones from the Pacific Ocean to the northeastern regions of Yakutia and the formation of autumn cyclones over the Arctic Ocean. The differences are due to geographical location: proximity or distance from the sea, mountain ranges and their orientation to the cardinal directions, altitude, and seasonality of atmospheric circulation. Territorial differences in temperature changes are particularly well observed during the transition seasons when there is a change in the types of atmospheric circulation.

During the period of transition from the warm to the cold season (September–November), the temperature increases at the Ambarchik and Saskylakh stations are apparent, and most noticeable after 2005 (see Fig. 7.3). These flat territories are open from the north to the Arctic air masses formed over the Arctic Ocean. Of course, the state of the sea ice in the Arctic is highly significant for the climate. The September ice coverage in the Northern Sea Route region decreased by 4–5 times in 2005 compared to the 1980s and ranges between 200–300 thousand km². In 2019, it was about 100 thousand km² – the second-lowest amount after the record of 2012, when there was almost no sea ice (RosHydroMet, 2020).

Fig. 7.3

Yearly means of maximum and minimum temperature for spring (March–May) and for fall (September–November)

An increase in the air and ocean temperatures, a decrease in the ice coverage, and therefore an increase in the period and area of open water causes a feedback effect, having a warming impact on the coastal areas. Global warming of the Arctic climate has led to the formation of new regions of polar cyclone development. An increase in temperature and an increase in the open water period in the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea contribute to the formation of autumn mesoscale cyclones, similar to the well-known winter mesoscale cyclones over the Norwegian Sea, the Greenland Sea, the Barents Sea, and the Bering Sea. A study carried out by Zabolotskikh et al. (2015) shows that mesocyclones develop in this area of the Arctic with significantly lower heat flows from the sea surface. They predict that the melting of Arctic Sea ice, the likely emergence of the seasonality of the Arctic ice cover and the associated increase in the meridionality of atmospheric circulation may lead to more frequent landfalls of deep Pacific cyclones to the Arctic coast, which will cause an increase in cyclonic and mesocyclonic activity over the seas of the eastern part of the Arctic.

Compared to temperature, changes in precipitation in Yakutia are more even in space and time, but in general, they shift to opposite trends during different seasons of the year. During the cold season, especially during the period from December to March, there is a trend of decreasing precipitation, most apparent in the northeast of Yakutia. In the warm period of the year (from May to September), the opposite trend is observed – the precipitation amount increases (Lobanov & Kirillina, 2019).

Just as in the case of air temperature, the amount of precipitation for the four stations of interest shows the greatest changes in the transition periods – from March to May and from September to November (Table 7.2). The time series for spring and fall and the corresponding trends are shown in Fig. 7.4. In the spring period, there is a significant decreasing trend in precipitation in the northeast (Ambarchik), while there is a significant increase in precipitation at the Kanku station (Taiga area) in the south of Yakutia. In autumn, a significant increase can be found at the Tompo stations (subarctic climate zone) and Kanku in the south (see Table 7.2). Southern Yakutia increasingly often turns out to be in the zone of meridional transfer, when warm air masses arrive from the heat source forming over the north of China. Moving north, these air masses bring precipitation, which falls mainly in southern Yakutia.

Fig. 7.4

Annual precipitation (in mm) averaged for March–May and September–November

Table 7.2 Average annual and seasonal precipitation change rate from 1980 to 2019 [mm/10 years]

The changes in the precipitation regime affect the formation of snow cover. Snow cover parameters depend on many factors, such as the amount and nature of precipitation, the thermal and wind regimes under which metamorphism and ablation processes occur, and the radiation balance. The simplest characteristic of a snow cover is its depth. Snow cover begins to form at the beginning of the cold period (October–November in Yakutia) and reaches its maximum depth from the end of February to the first half of April. Over the past decades, the average number of days with snow cover in Russia has been decreasing by 1.01 days per decade (RosHydroMet, 2017). In Yakutia, the change in the snow depth is geographically uneven.

Figure 7.5 shows the time series of the monthly maximum snow depth for the four stations at the beginning (November) and the end (March) of the snow season. The most noticeable changes occurred in the northeast of Yakutia (Ambarchik and Tompo stations) in November when the snow cover begins to form. The increase in the amount of solid precipitation in this area is due to the more frequent landfalls of cyclones from the Sea of Okhotsk to the Kolyma basin.

Fig. 7.5

Time series of monthly maximums of the snow depth for November and March

The snow cover is formed through solid precipitation accumulation. At the same time, its structure and stratigraphy are subject to change over time and geography, which is due to the diversity of meteorological conditions during the period of solid precipitation and between snowfalls, thermal regime, and wind conditions. These cause metamorphism and ablation, fundamentally changing the characteristics of the snow covers in comparison with fresh snowfall. The main large-scale processes affecting the formation of snow cover are the incoming shortwave and outgoing longwave radiation (radiation balance) and atmospheric circulation.

The radiation balance in the northern and central regions of Yakutia has negative values between October and March, reaching its minimum in December. In southern Yakutia, the radiation balance is negative between November and February. The deficit of the incoming solar energy defines the thermal regime and the duration of the cold period. The cold period in the tundra area with a mean daily temperature below 0 °C lasts for 250–260 days between the second half of September and the end of May. The mountainous area in the northeast experiences cold periods between the second half of September and the second half of May (220–240 days). As for southern Yakutia, stations located on the flat relief indicate cold periods between early September and late April (200–210 days) and from mid-September to mid-May (210–220 days) on the uplands. Due to the radiation regime in Yakutia, the snow cover duration coincides with the cold period.

Circulation processes also have a distinct seasonal character. The major baric formation in the cold period of the year is the northeast ridge of the Siberian anticyclone, which center is located above northern Mongolia. The Siberian anticyclone system is formed by anticyclones invading eastern Siberia along the polar and ultra-polar axes along the western periphery of the eastern troughs, as well as anticyclones moving from the west and southwest. The Siberian anticyclone creates favorable conditions for cold spells over the Earth’s surface, as there is a low amount of cloud cover most of the time. In the mountainous areas located in the well-developed part of the Siberian anticyclone, surface cooling is intensified by the accumulation and stagnation of cold air masses flowing from uplands into concave relief forms. Extremely low temperatures are formed in this specific area, called the Asian Cold Pole (Kobysheva et al., 2001).

Air masses from the Atlantic Ocean reach Yakutia with negligible moisture content. In winter, Arctic front cyclones develop over the marginal seas of the Arctic Ocean and Taimyr. However, they meet an obstacle when moving eastward of the Verkhoyansk Range.

Air masses from the Pacific rarely cross the mountain range barrier in northeast Yakutia. They significantly impact only the Kolyma River basin. The Aleutian Low exists over the Pacific Ocean in winter. It is associated with the formation of deep cyclones on the Pacific Polar Front, which often regenerate on the Okhotsk Arctic Front. The trajectories of these cyclones usually pass through the south of the Sea of Okhotsk to Kamchatka and further on to the Bering Sea, but some cyclones pass directly through the Sea of Okhotsk to the Kolyma River basin. The outflow of relatively warm and wet masses along the cyclone periphery is followed by strong winds and significant snowfalls. Occasionally, cyclones from the Sea of Okhotsk bring warm air to the south, southeast, and center of Yakutia, causing short-term warming. The duration of this eastern process is 3–4 days; in some cases, it can reach 8–10 days.

Therefore, dry, and cold Arctic and continental air masses at moderate latitudes predominate in the area of interest. As a result, the amount of precipitation in most of the territory is low, with an average snow cover height of 30–35 cm in the north-west, 40–50 cm in the tundra of the Kolyma Lowland, and 60–80 cm in southern Yakutia (RosHydroMet, 2020). In the mountainous areas of the northeast, the height of the snow cover is distributed quite unevenly.

The first snowfall of the season is close to the autumn zero-crossing date. Often the first snow melts because of thaws, and a stable snow cover is established on average 1–2 weeks after the first snowfall: in the tundra zone and south of it in the second and third weeks of September, around approximately 64°N in the first 10 days of October and south of 64°N in the second half of October; in mountainous areas, the stable snow cover depends on the altitude.

The time frame of the stable snow cover also depends on the weather type corresponding to the atmospheric circulation in the pre-winter period. The difference in the dates of stable snow cover formation can be as much as 30–45 days. Once a stable snow cover is formed, its height gradually increases. Active snow cover growth occurs between October and November, the months with the highest cyclonic weather frequency. Snow cover reaches its maximum height in the north in the first half of April, and for other territories in the last third of March and the first third of April.

Starting from the first and second weeks of April, and in the north from the third weeks of April, the snow height starts to decrease, followed by daytime thaws, occasionally there is rain and snow mixed precipitation, and the snow starts to melt and thicken.

The degradation of the stable snow cover takes less time than its formation. In southern Yakutia, the snow cover melts by the end of the first week of May and in the tundra zone by the first weeks of June. The number of days with snow cover in Yakutia ranges from 200–210 in southern Yakutia to 250 days in the tundra zone.

Snow cover density depends on meteorological conditions that cause precipitation, deposition and re-deposition, condensation, turbulent heat, and moisture exchange. Most of the Yakutia territory is characterized by low snow cover density due to very low air temperatures, low wind speeds, and a low number of snowfalls. Relatively high snow density in the southwestern part of Yakutia and the Aldan Plateau is associated with slightly higher wind speeds, higher air temperatures, and relatively high snow cover capacity. High snow cover densities on the Laptev and the East Siberian Sea coasts and in the tundra zone are mainly due to strong winds and open terrain. Snow cover density, as well as snow height, increases during winter and peaks during the snowmelt period.

There are considerable variations in the structure of snow cover in open areas (fields, tundra) and the forest. Snow accumulation in the forest depends on the thickness of the vegetation, but in general maximum height and density are often observed at the forest edge. Inside the forest, snow is more evenly distributed than in open areas; the snow is loose, and it is less exposed to wind and daily temperature changes, which slows down recrystallization processes in the snow cover and reduces the chances of ice crust formation on the snowpack.

In the Arctic, in open tundra areas, where temperatures remain low for a long time in winter accompanied by constant winds, sublimation processes occur intensively in the snow cover. As a result, the snow cover surface becomes dense and finely structured while its layer is filled with irregular grains with hard, flat faces. Such granular, recrystallized snow beneath the top layer of dense, fine-grained snow can adversely affect reindeer grazing.

In the mountainous areas of the northeast, snowfall is most often accompanied by strong winds; freshly falling snow is being redistributed and rolled down a slope by wind and its weight, forming deep snowdrifts. During the winter, the snow cover is constantly exposed to the wind, which results in a very dense layer of wind-packed snow (snow slab), under which there is a layer of recrystallized, coarse snow.

Earlier Melting & Flooding. Due to climate change, snow and ice have been observed to start melting 2 weeks earlier in Sakha (Yakutia) in comparison to 30 years ago. This creates abnormal seasonal floods that threaten biodiversity and land use and are also a barrier to nomadic peoples involved in reindeer husbandry. In Sakha (Yakutia) there are extreme river level fluctuations caused by frequent ice dams and jams at the rivers that drain northwards to the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea. In the southern part of the region, the rivers break out rapidly, resulting in numerous ice jams in the streambeds of the northern rivers. The situation is often accelerated by the complicated geomorphic structure of the streambeds. Flooding is common on permafrost soils (which cover much of the territory), as these frozen soils have little or no water storage potential. Rapid snow and ice melting in spring cause significant flooding, but high levels of rainfall will also cause flooding (this also causes a ‘second wave’ of flooding and is a characteristic of Sakha (Yakutia).

Thus, a summary of the observed changes in climatic conditions is as follows:

• 1. The melting of Arctic Sea ice causes a feedback effect, which has a warming impact on the coastal areas of the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea, resulting in an increase in autumn temperatures and an associated shift of the beginning of the cold period. Due to the increasing intensity of cyclones, the wind speed grows, which causes compaction of the snow cover (formation of a ‘snow slab’).

• 2. The contribution of meridional transfer increases when cyclones come from the Sea of Okhotsk to the northeast of Yakutia, which causes an increase in the amount of solid precipitation, as well as in the number of winter thaws and the number of cases of ice crust formation.

• 3. Meridional outflows of warm air masses from the north of China and Primorye are the reason for the increase in precipitation and the number of thaws in southern Yakutia.

7.3 Temperature Projections for the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for the End of the Twenty-First Century

Several global climate projections describe changes in the global climate under continued anthropogenic forcing. These projections are produced using Coupled Global Climate Models (IPCC, 2013). In order to get projections on a regional scale, it is necessary to downscale these large-scale simulations. Benestad et al. (2008) have developed Empirical Statistical Downscaling (ESD) techniques that can be applied to stations with observational series of good quality, to downscale global temperature projections at these locations. It is a tool with low computational costs that makes it possible to provide a summary and a regionalization of global climate projections for regions of interest in a quick manner (Benestad, 2021). Here, ESD was used to downscale the simulated temperature of 81 global climate model runs (CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, Taylor et al., 2012) following the RCP8.5 scenario (Moss et al., 2010) at the four stations analyzed in the previous section. We chose the high-emission scenario in this analysis to get the clearest climate change signal and be aware of the possibly large impacts future climate change can have in the region.

The results of the downscaling of the whole ensemble, together with the observations, are shown in Fig. 7.6. The largest spread in the model simulations can be found for the two coastal stations Ambarchik and Saskylah. For the two inland stations (Tompo and Kanku), the spread is smaller, i.e., the results are more robust.

Fig. 7.6

Seasonal mean temperature for winter (DJF), spring (MAM), summer (JJA) and fall (SON) for the years 1900–2100 from the CMIP5 ensemble, downscaled using ESD at Ambarchik, Saskylah, Tompo, and Kanku for March-May, December-February, June-August, September-November. The observations are shown in red, while the black line denotes the ensemble median and the grey shaded area shows the ensemble spread

To determine the temperature change for the end of the twenty-first century, we have compared the mean of 2071–2100 of the simulations with the mean of 1971–2000 of the simulations for all the seasons (see Table 7.3). For winter, the largest temperature increase of 8.5 °C in 100 years (reaching −24.4 °C at the end of the twenty-first century) can be found at Saskylah station. Ambarchik station exhibits the smallest increase with 5.3 °C (reaching −23.8 °C). For spring, the largest increase of 7.5 °C (to −8.3 °C) can be found for the Ambarchik station. Tompo exhibits the smallest increase with a change of 4.1 °C (to −6.8 °C). The summer temperatures show the largest increase at Kanku with 6 °C (to 17.1 °C), while Ambarchik station features the smallest increase with 2.6 °C (to 8.2 °C). For autumn, the largest increase of 5.7 °C (to −3.7 °C) can be found for the Ambarchik station. Kanku station features the smallest increase with 2.8 °C (to −7.6 °C). Thus, the temperature increase for all stations is largest in winter and spring and the largest changes occur at the coastal stations Ambarchik and Saskylah. Note that following the RCP8.5 scenario provides results that can be seen as a relatively pessimistic but possible estimation of future developments in terms of greenhouse gas concentrations. A detailed analysis of the projected changes according to lower emission scenarios is out of the scope of this study but can be expected to show pronounced temperature increases as well, although with a smaller amplitude than under RCP8.5.

Table 7.3 Mean air temperature [°C] for the end of the twentieth century (1971–2000) and the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100) for the different seasons

7.4 Permafrost Conditions

In Russia, the total area with permafrost is 10.7 million km², which is about 63.5% of the entire territory of the country. Depending on the degree of closeness of the permafrost according to Callaghan and Jonasson (1995), the region is distinguished between the continuous, discontinuous, and insular distribution of permafrost. On the territory of Russia, the largest area (61.8% of the total permafrost area) is occupied by a continuous permafrost zone, the boundaries of which cover most of the Arctic islands and stretch continuously along the entire coast from the Kara Sea in the west to the Chukchi Sea in the east, penetrating deep into the continent in central Siberia and Yakutia (Jones & Moberg, 2003).

During field studies in 2005 (Kirpotin et al., 2008), a paradoxical situation was discovered: in the southern area of flat-hilly bogs, thermokarst is much less active than in the northern ones (in the area of the Arctic Circle 65.5–66°N 074–075.5°E). This is because frozen peat plays the role of a heat-insulating screen, and its thick layer protects the underlying soil from melting. Therefore, on shallow flat-hilly bogs of the Arctic Circle (where peat thickness is less than 0.5 m), despite the more severe climate, thermokarst is much more pronounced than in the southern area, where the thickness of the peat layer averages from 1.5 to 2 m. The identified regularity is quite understandable and is determined by the gradual decrease in the thickness of the peat deposit of hilly bogs from south to north due to a decrease in the annual growth of mosses in this direction. One of the important tasks of modern research in the northern territories of Eurasia is to identify the features of the impact of global warming on the state of permafrost.

The permafrost boundary is constantly shifting to the north. There are many marked simultaneous changes, e. g.:

• an intensive thawing of frozen soil up to 4 cm per year,

• deformations of buildings and structures are noted in several regions; the area of the Arctic ice cover has decreased by 1.5 times, while the thickness has decreased almost twice,

• huge volumes of methane gas under the ice shell can penetrate the air, increasing the problems associated with flooding.

The melting of permafrost is associated with environmental risks such as forest destruction, waterlogging, and other types of land degradation, which is causing a reduction of grazing lands for reindeer herders, fishermen, and hunters.

The assessment of the degradation of the Arctic and subarctic territories of Russia in the twenty-first century can be carried out not only by using traditional measurement methods recorded by industry statistics but also by the application of the method of remote sensing. Comparative assessments of changes in zonal ecosystems in the Arctic and subarctic regions of Russia have been obtained (see Table 7.4).

Table 7.4 General results from changes in areas (km²) of arctic and subarctic regions of Russia with different indicators of land degradation and restoration from 2000 to 2015

Permafrost is covered by a layer of soil and plant detritus with a thickness of 30 cm to 1.5 m. This soil – the so-called active layer – usually thaws every summer and refreezes in winter. But in the spring of 2018, Sergey Zimov, the director of the Northeast Scientific station, and his team found that the surface around the Chersky settlement in the Nizhnekolymsk ulus in the northeast of the Republic did not freeze. It was unheard of: in January in Yakutia, there are usually such severe frosts that can sometimes freeze human breath with a ringing sound, which the Indigenous Sakha people call the whisper of the stars. According to researcher Sergey Zimov, the average annual soil temperature above permafrost ranged from −6 to −8 °C 30 years ago, later increasing to −2 °C and then to −1 °C. In 2018, the temperature was +2 °C. Globally, the ground temperature above the permafrost has been rising for half a century. On the Alaska North Slope, it has risen by 5.8 °C in 30 years, especially in hotbeds of melting. For example, during the construction and development of mineral deposits, the surface of the Earth is damaged, allowing heat to pass through – the erosion of the coast is corroded, roads and houses are destroyed, pipelines burst and ice cellars (where Arctic hunters store walrus and whale meat) collapse. Climate change is beginning to change the lives of Arctic inhabitants. In 2018, a new cataclysm (winter thaw) was observed in the Arctic region.

7.5 Forest Fire Occurrences from 1998 to 2020

Forest fires are a large threat to reindeer pastures. Much attention has always been paid to the fight against them since fires destroy moss pastures for a long time (20–25 years). Also, due to the freshly burnt areas, reindeer migrations to seasonal pastures are difficult. The combination of frequent forest fires and climate warming creates critical conditions for natural ecosystems, the economy, and traditional activities, including reindeer husbandry.

Light coniferous forests prevail in the Republic; they are formed mainly by two species – pine and larch – of which larch occupies almost 90% of the forest ecosystem of the Republic. Such light coniferous forests are more flammable than, for example, dark coniferous forests. These wood species are pyrophytes – plants whose distribution and reproduction are facilitated by fire (Isaev, 2020). The arid climate and low amount of precipitation in Yakutia also contribute to forest fires. But it should be noted that many fires are caused by humans (Fig. 7.9).

In November 2020 and January 2021, so-called zombie or holdover fires were spotted in the Tompo region, by the village of Saydy and Udarnik. These peatland areas suffered extremely dry weather. These fires continue to burn in air temperatures of −50 °C (Siberian Times, 2021). The winter burning of such northern peatlands will have major consequences. Continuing to burn in spring, they will cover vast areas and destroy the environment, also releasing carbon into the atmosphere.

The main types of anthropogenic impact on the state of the reindeer forage base include deforestation and forest fires, mining industry development, and various types of agriculture and industry in the territory of Yakutia. According to Utkin (1965) and Timofeev et al. (1994), almost all forest areas in the Republic of Sakha to varying degrees were affected by forest fires. Surface fires, destroying the ground cover of woodlands, have a particularly strong effect on the state of lichen pastures of reindeer. The succession processes of vegetation at the sites of fires are long, especially in lichen sites. Strong surface fires have the potential to entirely destroy existing phytocenoses, prevent their restoration, and result in the formation of communities that are not typical (Chernyavsky, 1974). Anthropogenic impacts on the environment have strongly increased, especially in recent decades, which is associated with the development of the mining industry, and the introduction of new natural gas, oil and diamond deposits into the number of operating new fields (Mordosov & Krivoshapkin, 2008).

Figures 7.7 and 7.8 are based on data from the state institution Yakut Aviation Forest Protection Base, which is responsible for air patrolling Yakutia’s forest reserves, which are not covered by the forest fund, in order to detect forest and other landscape fires; extinguishing forest fires using the parachutes and airborne fire service and aircraft in the areas of aviation protection of forests, reindeer pastures, and hunting grounds, and other important functions (Department of Forestry Relations of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), 2017).

Fig. 7.7

The number of detected fires in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) from 1998 to 2020

Fig. 7.8

The area of the territory covered by fires (in hectares) in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 1998–2020

Figure 7.9 shows the causes of forest fires in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Forest fires occur due to various reasons and factors, but the most common are thunderstorms and human activity. Other reasons include the occurrence of fires from linear objects (including power lines, railways and highways, pipelines, and other objects) during logging operations, agricultural burns, and unknown causes. We have divided the territory of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) into six groups for a better visual demonstration of the dynamics of fires for the years 1998–2020 according to physical and geographical characteristics, also with responsible forestry departments (Fig. 7.10). For example, all central, southern, and western uluses (districts) have their forestry departments, while the territory of Anabarsky, Bulunsky, Oleneksky, and Zhigansky uluses have a common forestry department (Zhigansky). It should also be mentioned that the mountainous group did not include the Momsky and Kobyaysky districts, most of which territories belong to the high-mountain landscapes, but since their territories are under the other departments’ forest protection zoning, they were included in the northwestern and northeastern groups, respectively.

Fig. 7.9

Causes of fires in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 1998–2020 by number. Red – as a result of the violation of fire safety rules in forests by citizens (including the local population and tourists); blue – from thunderstorms; green – for other reasons

Fig. 7.10

Division of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) into the territories by physical and geographical characteristics and forestry departments

Fig. 7.11

Number and area of fires shown by territorial groups

Fig. 7.12

Number and area of fires shown by territorial groups

Fig. 7.13

Climate and weather change features in the perceptions of local people (residents of rural areas) of the Arctic regions of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic

Fig. 7.14

Reindeer herd near Neryungri, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). (Photo: A. Gerasimova)

The six groups of regions are (see Fig. 7.10):

• 1. The northwestern group includes Anabarsky, Bulunsky, Oleneksky, Zhigansky, and Kobyaysky uluses.

• 2. The mountainous area includes Ust-Yansky, Verkhoyansk, Even-Bytantaysky, Tomponsky, and Oymyakonsky uluses.

• 3. The northeastern group includes Allaikhovsky, Abyisky, Nizhnekolymsky, Srednekolymsky, Verkhnekolymsky, and Momsky uluses.

• 4. The Vilyui-Lena group includes Mirninsky, Suntarsky, Nyurbinsky, Verkhnevilyuisky, Vilyuisky, and Lensky uluses.

• 5. The central group includes Gorny, Namsky, Ust-Aldansky, Khangalassky, Megino-Kangalassky, Churapchinsky, Tattinsky, Amginsky, Ust–Maisky uluses, and Yakutsk urban district.

• 6. The southern group includes Olekminsky, Aldansky, and Neryungrinsky uluses.

Numbers and areas of fires by territorial groups are represented in Figs. 7.11 and 7.12. In some cases, some types of fires are vital for the forest ecosystem, but in other cases, they have a destructive power on the environment, especially if the cause is human activity. The negative consequences of forest fires, such as reduced productivity of soil cover, destruction of natural forest resources, CO₂ emissions, loss of biological biodiversity, pollution of water resources, and other consequences, strongly affect reindeer husbandry.

7.6 Perception of Climate Change and its Impact on Reindeer Husbandry Among Indigenous Peoples of the Arctic

For the purposes of the study, in-depth interviews were conducted with 14 representatives of Indigenous peoples of the North who have experience in reindeer herding and permanently live in the Nizhnekolymsk ulus. The interviews were aimed at identifying perceptions of climate change and its impact on reindeer herding. The interviews were analyzed using content analysis methods.

The interviews were conducted during the years 2020–2021 by Anna Shishigina in Russian, which the interviewees have a good command of. The interviews were conducted in the settlement of Chersky, were digitally recorded, and lasted from 30 to 70 min. In the interviews, residents of the Arctic regions of Yakutia talked about their daily lives, observations of environmental changes, and how various circumstances affect reindeer herding. The codes and developed categories show how everyday life has changed over time (see Fig. 7.13).

First of all, we should note that all respondents recognize the reality of climate change. Respondent 8 put it this way: “The climate is changing all over the world. Our climate is also changing, just like the rest of the world – we live on the same planet.”

Based on the frequency with which certain features are mentioned, they most often cite issues related to water resources (lakes disappearing, islands appearing on the river) and changes in the natural cycle (the rivers freezing later, winter becoming warmer, spring coming earlier) as factors of change (Fig. 7.13).

For example, old residents of the Nizhnekolymsk district note: “Now it starts freezing very late, because earlier, winter was considered to start before October 1. The ice was already thick. It was in the early 60’s - late 50’s, but the spring was early all the time. On May 1 we – the schoolchildren in the village of Kolyma, the children, and all the adults in boots wandered in the mud. And now it’s not like that, now May 1 is winter. <…> And now, on the contrary, for some reason, it freezes very late. It freezes late.” (Respondent 1); “The river freezes later. About 20 days later. Earlier from October 5 to 9, the river was already covered with ice. It was obligatory during this period. Obligatory. In summer, too, at the end of May – from 27 to 2-3 June, the ice was melting. Not so now. In 2019, the river froze somewhere on the 20th, and once it was even in November. Almost a month late” (Respondent 9).

There are no negative factors about how it affects reindeer husbandry, these factors are rather accepted as a fact: “The cycle has changed… even calving is later, earlier it started a little bit earlier. The calves were born earlier and now they are born later. And the rutting also happens later, because the temperature affects it and the animals feel it, I guess. They have a certain moment, they … the rutting is going on. They’re covering their females. And it looks like with the warming, they’re a little bit off their schedule for almost a month. You can see that. It doesn’t feel that way. It’s only uncomfortable in the fall. In autumn, let’s say, we make a cage and drive the herds, but the ground is not frozen. It used to freeze over before. And now it freezes later in autumn. The ground is not frozen and … the rut is breaking because it is not frozen” (Respondent 11).

Meanwhile, some respondents still expressed the opinion that warm winter weather is not the most favorable for reindeer husbandry: “It is … so bad for reindeer husbandry because the herd needs movement. When it is warm for a long time, the reindeer are already used to it being cold.

Residents sometimes directly state that fishing suffers from these changes more than reindeer breeding (Respondent 1): “For example, we have the spawning season for the chirp – at the end of August and September. And in September, the lakes haven’t frozen yet. And in October, around October 7-8, we set our nets and we only catch a tail, and now they’ve finished spawning, and the rest of the fish go to the river, we catch them”; “Due to the change of freezing period, there seems to be no fish in the river. That’s why they say: fish go away sometime. We have October - if earlier it was supposed to be at the beginning, now it’s 15 days later that the Kolyma River freezes up and the fish are gone” (Respondent 3).

Of the range of information that relates to water resources, the most numerous mentions relate to drying lakes. However, regarding the extent to which this phenomenon is related to climate change, namely to the processes of melting permafrost, residents are unsure: “Why do lakes flow out? Because there is probably no permafrost. Or I don’t know. This is my assumption that there is no permafrost” (Respondent 4), “Because they say some cracks are formed, there are cracks in the tundra and the lakes are drying up” (Respondent 10), “And the lakes are disappearing. It looks like it’s getting warmer and thawing out. I don’t know. And these lakes are disappearing - they are flowing out” (Respondent 11).

Changes concerning water resources, although among the most frequently mentioned, are not unambiguously referred to as negative factors by the respondents themselves, still have quite a serious impact on the daily life of reindeer herders.

First, small rivers and lakes play a major role as objects of orientation in quite large areas.

Respondent 1 wonders: “There on the bank of the river you can clearly see how it changes. A year ago, I was driving past and there was a river here. Now we drive up this year - there is no river. It’s gone to a completely different place. Three years in a row I hunted right down this river, right on the way out to the sea. We drove up there, I didn’t understand what happened. And I ended up in a totally different place. First time I noticed that.” Respondent 4 notes: “They give me a point. Where are you? There this, there that…on a dry lake. And I remember where this dry lake is. I used to go nomadic, this lake was fishy, and there were a lot of teals. I have a navigator in my memory - I can’t complain. I have a good navigator. I know my place. These are the places I roamed. And I remember. Where is this dry lake? They say - dry lake, where is the southern shore, the eastern shore. I remember and remember where this dry lake is. And I look at the map, is this where it is?”

Second, fish caught in northern rivers and tundra lakes play an important role in the food traditions of both reindeer herders and local residents, and such changes cannot go unnoticed: “Fish have become scarce. You can feel it by the fishing. We used to catch here, for ourselves. And now we catch some for the kids. We didn’t catch for sale. It used to be okay - the yukolu there…”. (Respondent 14); “We can say that there is fewer fish. There’s no reason to fish, you could say. We used to have only fish. Now you can’t survive with fish only. If only you are lucky. Bajanai, if he shares. There is fewer fish on the river - omul, vendace. This year there is a little more vendace. It probably depends on the water. How the river flows.” (Respondent 5).

Not all of the interviewees – residents of Nizhnekolymsk District – correlate the processes of river melting and the appearance of islands on rivers with climate change. Thus, respondent 3 notes: “It seems to me that the river is shallowing not because of the climate. It seems to me that Magadan is water dumping. They discharge water and you can imagine the tonnage of water going in when there are scheduled discharges in the fall, and that’s why we have so many islands. And we get, as they say, it used to be good when the ships came in. And now when the water goes away, shallowing is going”, i.e., they connect these processes with anthropogenic impact – construction of Hydro Power Plant on Kolyma. Another respondent also connects these processes with the suspension of permanent dredging, which was conducted during the Soviet time: “There is a big island opposite Chersky, too. It’s become long. I went to Kolymskoye, I used to take the same (route) almost every year, and here one time – the hooks, what is it? And they told me – don’t you know, there’s an island here. When did it appear? Yes, that’s it. In that period. They used to go, what’s his name? Maybe that’s why”.

As for the dried-up lakes, these processes are more tangible for reindeer breeding, but also on this issue the opinions differ, but nevertheless, the majority still note the negative factors.

Thus, respondents 13 and 8 categorically refer to this factor as negative: “A lot of bushes have grown in the tundra. Plants that were not there before have grown. They displaced the endemics. Plants. And it turns out that there is waterlogging of tundra, i.e., there is not much moss growing. There is a problem with it too. They lose pastures. And we can’t herd more than 14 thousand reindeer. This problem is one of the main problems for today”; “Shrubbery is growing capitally. Shrubs started growing in the yagel (reindeer lichen) areas – that’s not good either. Yagel will dislodge. Grass will start growing”.

Others, on the contrary, note the positives: “It’s probably a good thing for reindeer husbandry. Why? Well, the lake came out, and the next year grass grew there. On the place of this lake. And the grass stands there very well.” (Respondent 4). Respondent 10 talks about the same thing, “And on these places, like reeds, tall grass grows. And deer graze there in the fall and spring.

But there are also those herders who see both positive and negative sides to this. So, respondent 11 notes: “It depends on what side you look at. For reindeer – bushes are greenery, they eat them. It’s good for roaming. Because there’s no firewood in the tundra and we pick up tunduks (thalder) to make fire. The bushes grow and it is profitable for us that the bushes grow. But, on the other hand, on bushes, it’s … kopytka (foot rot). They get hurt and sick (reindeer)”. Respondent 13 also notes the problem of hoofing in places where shrubs grow on dried-up lakes.

Experienced reindeer herders also note such factors of climate change as an increase in the number of polar bears in human settlements. Thus, respondent 8 correlates this phenomenon with the melting of ice: “This is also climate change. There was no such thing before. They are always on the ice.” In addition, he adds: “There’s a lot of creeks now in the spring that you can’t get through. It didn’t use to be like that. There’s more snow now, in the mountains. <…> it’s impossible to migrate. But it’s not for long, of course. During thawing. Here. That’s why it feels, of course.

Some note the windiness. Thus, respondent 10 believes that the winds “now seem to be frequent”, and respondent 9 shares such observations about the change in wind direction in a particular season: “In winter, mostly now the south-easterly wind – a cold wind. The wind direction, that is, has changed since around the 90s and early 2000s. It wasn’t like that before”.

In general, it should be noted that experienced reindeer herders believe that the problem of climate change is not the most pressing at the moment – “Well, not so noticeable. For us. Slowly, slowly changing” (Respondent 8). Thus, Respondent 3, in this regard, expresses the opinion that the problem is more noticeable for the villagers than for reindeer herders: “The reindeer herders, who are really hereditary, say that the climate does not change that much. But for us, the villagers, everything seems to be changing so much.”

All interviewees noted negative events in recent years – deep snow, warm winters, and strong heat in the summer.

But it is also a common opinion that all these are the coming whims of nature. Respondent 7 said the following: “I just wondered, before the fall froze up around October 10, we were already setting nets. That was in the 70-80s. Almost until the beginning of the 90s. And then it got to the point, that we were still floating on the Kolyma River until October. Generally, we wondered what it was. At the end of October 25, the Kolyma River was just rising, and the fish were already all gone. It is not waiting for Kolyma to freeze or not to freeze. But on the other hand – you wouldn’t know either. This year it also got up early – it’s ok, it got up early. At first, it seemed as if some kind of thaw had set in, some warming went on because the Kolyma River is already late in freezing. And there’s a big difference with the year.” “And you wouldn’t know. Things are changing faster.” – he adds. Respondent 12 puts it the same way: “It changes every year. You can’t tell for sure anyway. No one will tell.” “One year there’s a lot of snow, one year there’s a flood, one year there’s nothing. It varies.” – Respondent 8 cites his opinion.

Respondents 1 and 2 recall that such natural disasters as rain in December and January, which are extremely harmful to reindeer husbandry, have happened before, including at the beginning of the twentieth century. Respondent 10 recalls that such phenomena have occurred two or three times in her memory – in the 1990s and 2000s.

Respondent 13 says that even though the weather varies from year to year, nevertheless all these processes are due to climate change – “At least during our generation, there was no such thing. We still tend to think the climate is changing. Maybe wrong.”

During fieldwork, the author was convinced that the key informants are united by a great sense of dignity, and love for their land, their roots, and their work. Probably that is why, despite all the observed changes and natural cataclysms, many interviewees say that reindeer herders with timely actions can overcome the vagaries of nature: “What is the worst for reindeer? It’s how it (nature) freezes in autumn. If it was raining heavily and then suddenly it froze. And along with the snow. And everything is covered with a crust of ice. The crust is ok, it’s nothing. But the moss - it becomes hollow. Everything inside becomes watery. And what does the reindeer practically eat? Ice. So what do the reindeer eat? It just stuffs the stomach and is of no use. And the reindeer start to be exhausted. So, what is the most important thing we did for this? We were looking for protection in the forest zone. In the places where the forest was thicker, in winter we tried to stay in those places. Because the branches held back the moisture. The rain remained on branches and under them the moss was dry. It is not soaked with water. And the reindeer in these places he knows himself, he knows himself where the iak is good” (Respondent 1); “I was afraid that in this heat the reindeer will not survive, but on the contrary, all the living remained – they left in time towards the sea, managed” (Respondent 2); “Reindeer herding is a science, and the main teachers are his feet.” (Respondent 4).

7.7 Threats and Challenges to the Development of Reindeer Husbandry and Proposals for Overcoming Them

Climate change poses risks to the preservation of the traditional way of life of Indigenous peoples, including reindeer husbandry. Due to more frequent thaws, an ice layer can occur on the surface of the snow cover and on the ground, which restricts access to food for reindeer. Melting permafrost, changes in the parameters of snow cover, earlier ice drift and later freezing of rivers lead to the disruption of traditional reindeer migration routes between winter and summer pastures. The warming of the climate and the reduction of ice coverage in the Arctic Seas together with changes in the migration routes of wild reindeer and their food supply may lead to a reduction in the traditional industry of Indigenous peoples of the Arctic (RosHydroMet, 2017).

It should be noted that for the Indigenous peoples of the North and the Arctic, the development of reindeer herding is not only socially but also politically important, as it forms the basis of their identity and is the main traditional occupation of their life.

The unpredictability of long-term changes in the productivity of the marine, terrestrial, and wetland ecosystems determines the need to develop different possible scenarios for the development of climatic and environmental changes in the Russian Arctic. One should aim to find for each of them a robust set of adaptation measures for the population and economy which do not damage the environment. Early adaptation action can bring tangible economic benefits and minimize threats to ecosystem conservation, human health, sustainable economic development, and the safe operation of infrastructure. The strategies for adapting the economy and society to changes in climatic and natural conditions in the Arctic should include scientific assessments of the risks, vulnerability as well as potential benefits of the projected climatic changes, taking into account the natural, geographical, economic, social, and other features of the Russian Arctic. In this context, one of the important tasks is to conduct economic assessments of the costs and benefits of the proposed adaptation measures.

The development of measures for the protection and rational use of reindeer pastures and the conservation of biodiversity in them, along with other conservation measures, is extremely important for the restoration and further development of reindeer husbandry as an important economic activity.

Melting permafrost affects the state of reindeer pastures in particular and human life in the Arctic in general. For the Indigenous peoples of the North and the Arctic, the development of reindeer husbandry has not only social but also political significance, since it forms the basis of their identity and is the main traditional occupation of their lives. For this reason, the development of reindeer husbandry in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) is of great importance. The maintenance of reindeer husbandry is based on pasture fodder. That is why a rational use of reindeer pastures based on the study of yield, changes in plant phytomass under the influence of grazing, and technogenic impact is relevant. The development of measures for the protection and rational use of reindeer pastures and the preservation of biological diversity on the pastures based on traditional knowledge, along with other nature conservation measures, is of exceptional importance for the restoration and further development of reindeer husbandry as an important economic activity.

This is possible not only by studying changes in the composition of the vegetation cover of reindeer pastures under the influence of grazing and anthropogenic influences but also by developing methods for their rational use. In this regard, a comprehensive study of the ecology and dynamics of pasture vegetation and methods of using pastures in a changing environment under the influence of various natural and anthropogenic influences is not only of the theoretical value for understanding the evolutionary process and patterns of changes in the species composition and functioning of pasture vegetation but also acquires applied significance in the development of reindeer husbandry as the basis for the life of the local population. Climate change, melting permafrost, and degradation of reindeer grazing lands require scientifically based solutions for the survival and adaptation of reindeer herders to the new conditions. Therefore, the rational use of reindeer pastures based on the combination of traditional knowledge of reindeer herders and scientific knowledge is important.

In order to avoid forest fires and reduce their number in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the following measures can be taken:

• conduct intensive forestry. Clean forests of felling residues decrease the amount of combustible material due to forest ecosystems.

• performing prescribed burning in forests for preventive purposes. For example, carrying out controlled burning of dry grass, taking into account the optimal period when the forest is not ready to burn and the situation will be under human control. At the moment, in Russia, agricultural burns are prohibited at the legislative level.

• provide long-term weather forecasts, which will allow for assessing and preparing for a forest fire situation in certain places.

For the implementation of such plans, the issues of financing such measures are important. Thus, the main investor in the Arctic regions of Russia is the state, which also provides state investments and infrastructure support. The budget of the Sakha Republic for 2021 is about 250 billion rubles, which is about $3.4 billion. In the Arctic regions of the Sakha Republic, much of the infrastructure was built during the Soviet era and is now quite old and poor. It needs renovation and, of course, requires very large investments to renovate houses and build new schools, kindergartens, hospitals, energy infrastructure, roads, and communications. The state budget of the Sakha Republic for the next 4 years envisages about 45 billion rubles for the Arctic regions. There is not enough funding for infrastructure development. There are problems with banking services in some settlements. Getting loans or mortgages is a big problem because banks have their systems of economic expediency. In very small localities, there are no ATMs, no bank offices, and no communication, because it is not economically feasible for the banks.

The adaptation of Indigenous peoples is also related to the economic development of their small communities based on the production of traditional products, mainly food, the development of creative industries, and various services. Reindeer husbandry, as one of the main traditional activities of Indigenous peoples, will continue to play an important role in preserving the culture, language, and traditions of Indigenous peoples. At the same time, it should play a central role in the economic development and modernization of Arctic Indigenous peoples. New economic models for reindeer husbandry that incorporate Indigenous traditional knowledge combined with new and innovative technology are needed to achieve this goal. Access to markets and the expansion of existing markets, including international markets, is crucial in this regard. Therefore, projects such as the use of the Northern Sea Route as a tool to access international markets are very important.

Among other methods, the development of a climate change adaptation strategy can consist of the study and application of the snow and snow cover knowledge systems of the Indigenous peoples whose wellbeing is associated with pastoral reindeer husbandry. Its most interesting and valuable aspect is understanding the state of snow cover in close relationship with the state of weather, vegetation, and wildlife. The accumulation of knowledge about the state of snow and snow cover in combination with the features of other environmental components is typical for all Northern peoples and gives an example of successful adaptation to difficult climate conditions. The holistic approach underlying the system of traditional knowledge about weather and climate can be called a forerunner of modern interdisciplinary research. The interdisciplinary approach allows us to cover the totality of processes occurring in the climate system as a whole, including the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and upper layer of the lithosphere. In the Arctic and subarctic, where the effects of climate change are compounded by globalization and changes in traditional husbandry practices, traditional knowledge of weather and climate and their impact on traditional livelihoods like reindeer husbandry can play an important role in developing a climate change adaptation strategy.